Bush aide foresees early lead for Kerry -July's convention may push Demo to 55-40 edge, he says

Deseret News ^ | 7/6/04 | Ken Herman

[NYC Republican]

Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry reacts after a speech by his wife Monday at an Independence Day celebration in Fox Chapel, Penn.

Gerald Herbert, Associated Press In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce." "We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo. Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August. Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention. Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate. Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as Kerry has kept mum about his preference. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out. Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday. "No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," he told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of." The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said that Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington. But the officials cautioned about reading too much into that, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry. On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process. Kerry will speak to the NEA convention on Tuesday. "We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop common-sense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president. The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in 15 battleground states targeted by the association. Kerry on Monday hosted an Independence Day picnic near Pittsburgh that included supporters from Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, three November battleground states. The presumptive Democratic nominee will campaign in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington, D.C., this week. Bush, who will do a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Friday, had no public events on Monday. Instead, he went for a bike ride in Maryland. He was taken to a Secret Service facility in Beltsville, Maryland Md., for a bike ride.

[Edit35]

As I said in an earlier post, there are plenty of good justications for the war, but too many of them, like the al-Qaeda/Hussein connection, cannot be plainly demonstrated in unambiguous, open language, which is a severe problem for a leader who needs to openly rally a vast and diverse electorate around his war aims.

Personally, I would rather have a President who protects our country when its in danger rather than someone who becomes paralyzed into inaction because they cannot find a document that "plainly demonstrates in unambigious, open language" the connection between clandestine terrorist groups.

Iraq harbored numerous known terrorists, some of whom were wanted by America and other countries for past atttacks.

Iraq also supplied scientists and other assets to various programs ongoing in other countries, such as Libya, which has just come clean with its past intentions while turning over vast amounts of evidence to British and American authorities.

Would you prefer to have waited for a nuclear bomb blast in Atlanta or a sarin gas attack in Chicago before we acted??

[The Wizard]

I don't believe that the bathroom boys are going to pull ahead......johnboy is not ready for president, and Kerry's choice is a poor one

[Constitutional Patriot]

"Reminds me of the press release that went out just before 2002 elections saying that the party of the White House usually loses seats during midterm elections, so don't get your hopes up."

Good point D53...and if I remember correctly, the RNC blew the DNC out of the water. Hmmm...I'm sure that all of those voters are going to turn their backs on W and put a couple of left wing idiots in the White House.

[Edit35]

Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

In other words, TIME TO UNFURL THE BANKROLL and start the media blitz, TV and radio, demonstrating all the wimpy votes and statements by John-Boy and the Silk Pony (edwards) over the past two years.

Start with showing Opie's (yep-edwards) vote refusing to fund our soldiers in Iraq ---- and JohnBoy's multiple votes to cut CIA funding in the critical 1990s when 90-percent of the 9/11 attacks were being planned and financed.

[potlatch]

[Defender2]

#25. Thanks very much for the post, links and ping!!!!:-)

[NittanyLion]

The truth is always a stance on firm ground. Only lunatics, the truly misguided and party apparatchiks would claim that Iraq did not posess WMD, WMD programs and ties to Al Qa'ida in the march to the Iraq Theatre. I'm hoping you don't fall into any of those categories NL.

I believe they did have WMDs. But the people I talk to want to see tangible evidence to be convinced rather than a series of logical assumptions (and these are pretty independent-minded, reasonable swing voters).

[NittanyLion]

Personally, I would rather have a President who protects our country when its in danger rather than someone who becomes paralyzed into inaction because they cannot find a document that "plainly demonstrates in unambigious, open language" the connection between clandestine terrorist groups.

I would too. But then again I suspect you and I understand the subtleties of Al Qaeda/Iraq ties rather better than the average American. Those are the folks who must be persuaded, and I'm not convinced that the Administration can easily do so in the absence of hard, incontrovertible and tangible proof.

[Reader of news]

Karl Rove's electoral strategy will work. After the GOP convention, President Bush will lead the polls and in November he will improve what he got in 2000.