Posted on 06/28/2004 2:51:25 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
Isn't a minority government almost impossible to maintain? They can't (and won't) form a coalition with the other parties, so there will be a vote of no confidence the first time the liberals smell blood.
A minority government is difficult to maintain so there's not likely to be any controversial legislation. At the same time none of the smaller parties wants another election too soon - they need to replenish their depleted coffers first. I give one about six months to a year.
Actually from what I know about Canadian electoral law the Governor General of Canada has say in whether an election is called or not in case of a no-confidence vote bringing down the minority government in power. He (or in Canada's case now, she) can ask the next party in line to try to form the government instead of calling another election.
I also heard that in the case of a minority government, the current prime minister has the option not to concede power and to try to form a government with other parties help. Unbelievably, this means that even if the Conservatives win more seats, Paul Martin has the option to keep power and try to form a government, an option he hasn't ruled out...
Will you be posting results from the North Minehead By election, as well?
Exactly. If Martin's Liberals win the popular vote but winds up with fewer seats, his party still gets a shot at forming a government since MORE people voted for it than for the Conservatives. Its the Canadian way. The only chance this scenario becomes remote is if the Conservatives win enough seats so they get the first claim on forming the government. In the end, the Governor General has to decide which leader of which party can best form a government that can command a majority in the House Of Commons in the event no party wins an outright majority in an election.
Good luck Canada on the conservatives winning!
You are spectactularly wrong, goldstate. Polls close at 8 PM or so, local time, across the country. Polls close in Newfoundland at 6:30 EDT. Atlantic Canada 7:oo EDT and so on. The polls in British Columbia don't close until 11:00 PM EDT.
See post #7. And look for a Conservative victory.
Are there any porn stars running for parliment?
Oh well. If its really razor edge, we may not know who's ahead til well past midnight EDT. Maybe not for a couple of days. Will this be the American Election 200 Redux? Stay tuned.
I wish I could call it. And neither can you. I think right now its still too close to call. The smart bet's though, on a Conservative minority government.
LOL! The Liberals and the NDPers are all government whores running for the House Of Commons
If a minority Conservative government is formed, it will only last 12 to 24 months before another election is called. If they are smart they will be able to frame the issues for the next election in their favor and ride to a majority victory at that time. It has happened before, see 1957-1958 Canadian federal elections.
We didn't have a clear winner for 36 days. You might not even know which party gets called on to form the government first. That's why we should hope the polls are off the mark. A decisive Conservative win would mean a change for the better for Canada.
Does anyone recall the name of that
'swing-o-meter' display that seems very
popular in UK election reporting?
Down with the Liberals placemarker!
The Election Prediction Project website is apparently run by a card-carrying liberal, and consequently, has the Liberals winning 121-105 with the other seats spread out [BQ-52, NDP-29, Ind-1]. They FINALLY pegged John Herron to lose Fundy at the last minute, but frankly, and I'm not even Canadian, the Ontario call looks way off. I doubt, despite Liberal moves in the polls, that they'll make off with 65 seats in the province, especially with the NDP running stronger. It seems they only have the CPC the most obvious gains while tossing everything else to the Liberals. The Quebec prediction I think is also understating BQ support.
Barring a disaster, the Conservatives should win a government tonight (minority OR majority, most likely minority).
They introduced staggered voting hours in the 90s. Ontario & Québec polls are open 9:30am-9:30pm EDT while BC polling hours are 7am-7pm PDT (10am-10pm EDT).
I agree that it's advantage-tory. The NDP won't get enough seats to support a Liberal government, and backing Martin would be political suicide for the Bloc, which is riding an anti-Liberal wave. It could even be similar to 1979 where the Créditistes were able to keep the Tories in power merely by abstaining from votes (Joe Clark had more seats than the NDP and Liberals combined- it took all three opposition parties to defeat him).
Agree. My predicition still varies quite a bit from that internet projection. For starters, when and if Cardigan falls to the Tories (and I think it will), it will be a sign of the coming blue wave. If Brison goes down early in the night as well, I think it'll be an indicator.
They have, in my estimation, WAAAY underestimated Conservative support in Ontario, and slightly understated the Bloc in Quebec. NDP might be slightly overstated as well.
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