Bush has slim lead over Kerry in Wisconsin (46 - 42)

UPI ^ | 6-25-04

[Indy Pendance]

MILWAUKEE, June 25 (UPI) -- President Bush has a slight lead over John Kerry in a new Wisconsin poll that's little changed from the survey taken three months ago.

In a three-way matchup, Bush had 46 percent to 42 percent for Kerry and 5 percent for Ralph Nader, virtually the same figures as in a March sampling, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel said Friday.

The new Badger Poll of 504 voting-age adults surveyed June 15-23 by the University of Wisconsin has margin of error 4 percentage points.

Some 47 percent of Wisconsin adults polled thought Bush was doing a good job, up 1 point from the earlier poll, but 43 percent favored re-election, down 2 points.

Bush had a 52 percent favorable impression nod, same as three months ago, with a 42 percent unfavorable rating, up 1 point.

Kerry drew a 36 percent rating on both favorable and unfavorable, down 2 point on the first, up 2 on the second.

[Indy Pendance]

It's a slim lead when President Bush is up by 4 points, it's a massive uprising, the dems will control the US house and senate, will take over all governships, and all state houses if Kerry is up 4 points. This is good news. Wisconsin is conservative, Milwaukee (voter fraud capital) and Madison are what sways this state, but are not representative of who the people are. My county was 82% for President Bush in the 2000 election. Also, remember, gore only won this state by 5,708 votes.

[Paleo Conservative]

Imagine the headlines if that margin were reversed.

[Cicero]

Good news. Bush's biggest handicap is the media. So far they haven't managed to sink him no matter how hard they try. But they will continue to try harder and harder. Their rage knows no bounds. They are determined either to destroy him or themselves.

[My2Cents]

Pretty much the same lead Bush had three months ago. With four months to go before the election, this lead looks solid. In fact, if there is any room for voters to change their minds, it appears to be voters switching over to Bush. Kerry has topped it (knock on wood).

[FormerACLUmember]

How is 4 points a "slim lead"??

If the tables were turned, the democrat party Josef Goebbells' propaganda machine, oops I meant mainstream media, would be reporting "Kerry Decisively in Lead" right after "Wisconsin Voters Turn tio Kerry after Abu Gharib"!!!

[cmsgop]

Thats No Slim Lead!

[Indy Pendance]

President Bush, IMO, hasn't really brought out his campaign issue yet, and like you say, the media is trying everything. Wait until the debates! Kerry will be creamed.

[GiveEmDubya]

I've seen polls in the last 2 days giving Bush the lead in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and now Wisconsin. It's still way too early, this shows me that Kerry & the media's constant attacks on Bush don't appear to be working. Bush has turned a corner and with the economy improving, gas prices dropping (at least here they are), and the Iraq handover on track for now, Kerry will have to tread water until his convention bump or else it won't be enough.

[swilhelm73]

504 voting-age adults surveyed

Keep in mind that the most accurate polling targets are likely voters.

Surveying registered voters, or worse yet merely voting age adults is likely to dramatically overstate Democrat "voters".

If Bush is up in this poll by 4, he is probably really up by mush more...perhaps even double digits..

[Spook86]

I tend to agree...and this trend has to be disturbing for the Democrats. First, the death of Ronald Reagan took John Kerry off center stage, despite his "appearance" at the Reagan library. Then, Bill Clinton proceeded to suck the political air out of the environment for another week--remember, his book was supposed to "help" John Kerry--instead, a lot of Americans are recalling what it was like the last time we had a liberal in the White House, making George W. Bush look that much better.

And finally, we've got the Baby Huey of American Cinema, Michael Moore, with his so-called "documentary" that was supposed to damage George Bush even more. Of course, for all the Hollywood and media elite toadies and syncophants who suck up to Moore, there are literally millions of Americans who recognize Moore for what he is, and his "film" (I use the term loosely) for what it is, a hatchet job on a President Moore openly hates. Together, these pillars of the "Democratic Summer" are pushing voters in swing states toward President Bush. Obviously, these factors aren't as important as good economic news and improving conditions in Iraq, but every little bit helps. With "friends" like Bill Clinton and Michael Moore, John Kerry doesn't need enemies. Pass the sunscreen and a cold beverage...with Clinton and Moore on centerstage, Bush can add another 4-5 points to his lead. The Democratic Summer may be the worst strategy the Democrats ever conceived....

[GiveEmDubya]

I think Kerry will continue a modest slide until the Democrat convention. He'll get a bump from it, but since it'll probably be a zoo, I can't see it being huge. Then the RNC in NYC I expect will be poignant and powerful. Bottom Line: Unless something turns afoul in American politics, I expect Bush's convention bump to be bigger than Kerry's, which Bush can ride into the debates.

Bush may not be a great communicator a la Reagan, but I do suspect Bush will tar and feather Kerry in those debates. When Kerry isn't ranting, raving, and flailing, he will exude arrogance and self-importance. Bush, however, will be confident and leader-like. Not to mention, Cheney will massacre whatever loser Kerry puts in the #2 slot.

The media has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Bush so far, and Bush is still doing quite well in the battleground states. Kerry is a pompous ass and the more people see him, the less they will like him. He can't send a proxy to debate for him. Bush has turned this thing around, and while it's still pretty early in relative terms, I'm seeing signs of ANOTHER Bush recovery.

Top this, Lurch.

[Republican Wildcat]

It's quite amazing the increased use of "adults" as the polling standard in this election, isn't it?

[oldtimer]

I pray that you are right because I think the game plan is for Ralphie Nader to throw his support to the passivist, appeaser, leftist Kerry at the last minute.

Then Kerry will try to throw Nader a bone like Secretary of Defense if he gets elected.

OK, OK, even the RINO's wouldn't let that happen, but these two birds of a feather.

[texasflower]

Moore for what he is, and his "film" (I use the term loosely) for what it is, a hatchet job on a President Moore openly hates

I know what you meant, but I was quickly reading through your comment and those two words together gave me the creeps!

[GiveEmDubya]

I pray that you are right because I think the game plan is for Ralphie Nader to throw his support to the passivist, appeaser, leftist Kerry at the last minute.

It could happen, but I think by then Bush should have enough of a lead that it won't matter. These polls showing Nader at 6-8% nationally are a load, he probably won't get more than 2%. Yet I say again that if all goes well, that extra point or two onto Kerry's total won't mean much. We can only hope and work for a Bush victory.

[Luircin]

We can only hope and work for a Bush victory.

And pray too.

[smonk]

Wait until the debates! Kerry will be creamed.

yeah, you're probably right. two hours of jauques' particular brand of empty, evasive senate-speak, will have the american public BEGGING for another four years of W's plain-spoken, straight-forward honesty.

[Texasforever]

Bush will win at least one debate IF he can counter the inevitable "I knew Reagan and you are no Reagan" ambush. I have his answer ready for him when Kerry uses it. "President Reagan and I share one very obvious similarity. YOU. You voted against his defense programs just as many times as you have voted against mine. You voted against his tax cuts just as you did mine”.

[wardaddy]

I agree with everything but this:Bush has turned this thing around, . I never really thought W was whipped....damaged but not whipped...at least not from a middle Tennessee perspective which I admit ain't like Santa Cruz or Madison.

[wardaddy]

Send that to Rove, Card and Hughes LLC please.