FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Fox News/PollingReport ^ | 6.24.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 22-23, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	47	40	3	9	1
	6/8-9/04	42	42	3	12	1
	5/18-19/04	40	40	3	15	2
	4/21-22/04	42	40	2	14	2
	3/23-24/04	43	42	3	10	2
	2/18-19/04	43	42	4	9	2
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	48	42	8	2
	6/8-9/04	43	45	10	2
	5/18-19/04	42	42	13	3
	5/4-5/04	44	41	13	2
	4/21-22/04	43	42	12	3
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

[Nascardude]

This is great news. I definently feel a lot better than I do this morning when I saw that ARG Ohio Poll. THere are gonna be so many ups and downs till November. I'm sorry if I gave some people on here the wrong impression earlier this morning. I do tend to be a bit of a pessimist at times and I so badly want GWB to win this thing. But this poll, along with the Gallup poll and Rasmussen swinging back to Bush definenlty has me in a much better mood now then I was this morning. :-)

[Redmen4ever]

The Battle of the Polls …

Nationwide:

Fox Bush +7 versus WP/ABC Kerry +4
Harris Bush +10 versus LA Times Kerry +6

also

IBD/TIPP Bush +3
Pew Research Bush +4
Ipsos/AP Bush +1
Rasmussen Bush +2
NPR Bush +1

Battleground States:

OH Fox Bush +4 versus LA Times Kerry +3 versus ARG Kerry +6
FL Fox Bush +10 versus SUSA Bush +7 versus ARG Kerry +1
PA Fox Bush +5 versus SUSA Kerry +1 versus Quinnipiac Kerry +1

First, with so many polls being taken, it would not be surprising for some of the poll results to be bogus. We say, "19 time out of 20," yet that is under laboratory conditions (beads out of an urn). In the real world, we would expect less than 19 out of 20 polls to be valid.

In the absense of other information, just average the results of multiple polls. PLUS: don't get too concerned about any one poll result, even though the media likes to hype any poll that "stands out" from the others.

Second, Ohio is the new Florida. With the shift of Jews to the Republican column (no Lieberman on the ticket, plus the war on terror), Florida will be safely in the Republican column if the natiowide vote is close. BUT ... unless the nationwide vote swings one way or the other, Ohio looks like a toss-up.

WHY? The media will tell you it's tough economic conditions in the rust-belt. I'll tell you differently. It's because a Republican state government raised taxes in Ohio, and now it's payback time.

Conversely, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Democratic governors who raised taxes (albeit with the complicity of moderate Republicans in the legislature) put those states into play.

Third, with the improving economy, Bush's numbers are bound to improve. Consumer confidence is a lagging indicator. BUT ... the economy turned around soon enough to effect this year's election.

Fourth, all the statistics mean nothing if we don't get out the vote.

[TomEwall]

Not really. The last 5 polls (except for the ABC/WP poll) have results within the MoE of 7 (assuming MoE of 3.5 and allowing for rounding).

[BobFromNJ]

Great news!!! BUMP!!

[TomEwall]

The population remains largely homogenous across states. If the states were homogenous then Massachusettes would be as likely to vote for Kerry as Utah. It would be more accurate to say the swing voters of the states are homogenous. That's likely true. IOW if Bush makes a 5% move nationally he's likely to make that same move in any given state.

[Owen]

Yeah, that is better phrasing.

[TomEwall]

Where's the link to this data? I can't find the Fox poll on the Fox web site.

[TomEwall]

Found it I think. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,123679,00.html

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Great, where's that thread? I'm trying to find it.

[comebacknewt]

The mods deleted the thread as a duplicate even though it contained the state poll results that this thread did not. Unfortunately, I have not been able to access FoxNews.com to read the original story for confirmation.

[POA2]

"Unlike Moveon, the Club for Growth does not have to disclose their donors. Bottom line, the Dems opened the door, the Republicans are now going to burst through it, stay tuned."

I hope you are right! - I do know if we don't get in the 527 game - GWB will not win - we cannot sit back and be on the defensive like we have been - We must get 527's up and running at the same level (even more so) then the DEM 527's -

Can you point me to evidence that the GOP has 527's up and running and funded? Club for Growth (while great) does not run ads at anywhere near the pace of Moveon.org, ACT or the unions in the Midwest -

The fact is, in MI and OH the DEM 527 ads are running 3 or 4 to 1 for every GWB ad. (and probably the same in PA)-

Again, just look at the ad buys - Club for Growth hasn't even come near what moveon.org or ACT have put out - These guys are buying 12 and 16 State ad buy and running them for weeks on end - Club for G is buying 7 State ad buys and running them for 5 days max -

[goldstategop]

I'll tell you in two words why Bush has pulled ahead and it really isn't a big secret: Bill Clinton. He makes the President look good next to any other Democrat who is running. And the Clinton nostalgia among the Left unleashed with the release of Bubba's new book is causing many Lefties to pine for Hillary. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Democrats want to wait til 2008.

[daler]

Now we can wait for the FEC to ban the Club For Growth Ads while approving Michael Moore's BS movie...

[Irene Adler]

One thing bothers me. I expect the terrorists to try something big and dreadful (in the ME and/or over here) just before the election. This is something Bush has no direct control over. If a terrible act is attempted and successfully headed off and perps arrested, then that would almost certainly be good for Bush, but if a terrible act succeeded, how would the mushy-middle "moderate" voter react? With guts or like the Spaniards?

[gswilder]

Fox has had them very close for some time now. This is definitely a move, that is backed up by several other polls. Let's hope it stays 5-7 points throughout the summer and fall.

[gswilder]

Funny over at DU I see nothing about this Fox and recent Harris polls. They are still quoting the Ras poll from earlier this week showing Kerry up. (fathers day bounce big time) Even Ras has shown a consistent 2-3 point move for Bush over the last 2 weeks, again with the exception of the fathers day result. They are also whooping up about and LA times poll that shows Kerry up 3 in OH. Hope they keep believing....

[oceanview]

as I said on the other thread, we can praise poll X and trash talk poll Y till we are blue in the face.

ask the basic question - is the WH political operation serving this president well? do we see a consistent, steady message from this administration? do we see touting of the economic record? do we see them fighting back against the outrageous lies about Abu Ghraib? do we see any move to replace Scott McClellan? do we see a cohesive media strategy? does anyone think saving AIDS victims in Vietnam is a good way to spend a day on the stump?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Wow! This is quite a change. Especially FL, Bush is kicking butt in FL.

[Tennessean4Bush]

I agree. This cannot be dismissed as a weird outlier after the Harris poll. I think something is happening out there.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Is there more to this poll? Approval numbers etc.

here

Note the FL poll: Bush 48 - Kerry 38