FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Fox News/PollingReport ^ | 6.24.04

[ambrose]

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. June 22-23, 2004. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and independent candidate Ralph Nader?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision. Nader identified as Green Party candidate in 2/04 poll.
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	47	40	3	9	1
	6/8-9/04	42	42	3	12	1
	5/18-19/04	40	40	3	15	2
	4/21-22/04	42	40	2	14	2
	3/23-24/04	43	42	3	10	2
	2/18-19/04	43	42	4	9	2
						.
"If the election for president of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry?" Names rotated; respondents pushed for decision
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other (vol.)/ Not Sure	Wouldn't Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%
	6/22-23/04	48	42	8	2
	6/8-9/04	43	45	10	2
	5/18-19/04	42	42	13	3
	5/4-5/04	44	41	13	2
	4/21-22/04	43	42	12	3
	4/6-7/04	43	44	12	1
	3/23-24/04	44	44	10	2
	3/3-4/04	44	44	11	1
	2/18-19/04	45	45	9	1
	2/4-5/04	47	43	9	1
	1/21-22/04	49	42	8	1
	1/7-8/04	54	32	12	2
	7/03	54	35	8	3
	5/03	58	29	11	2
	12/02	57	29	12	2

[xzins]

If you get back to it, I'm interested. Thanks.

[BlueNgold]

This is all well and wonderful, but I couldn't give a rat's patooty about pop vote. Gimme the EC numbers. As I recall a 5-6 point margin means we win swing states which means 300+ EV.

[Voltage]

I am still predicting a Bush landslide. For a couple of reasons...1) Kerry's campaign is motivated by Bush hatred. While that may corral leftists, it won't work beyond their limited audience. Americans are not haters at heart and few will vote on that basis. Bush is a very likable person. 2) Bush has yet to roll out the campaign, while Kerry has been campaigning full time. When Bush rolls out the big guns it will be devastating for Kerry. The more Americans learn about Kerry's past behavior the lower he will sink. On the other hand all the Bush skeletons (drinking) are out and are old hat.

It's not going to be close!

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

On a more sour note, ARG came out today with an Ohio poll, Kerry up +6. All I can say about that is that its still a +1 change to Bush from their last poll, and their recent polls in the last month have tended to be +4/5 to Kerry compared to Mason Dixon and SurveyUSA. The last MD Ohio poll had Bush up 7 so I hope they follow up soon.

SUSA has not done an OH poll this year, they need to get out there and do one.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

It's the 7 point lead that seems out of whack with others except for Harris. The other are typically within the MOE. That was the source of my comment.

Ah, I see. However, their last poll was a tie, and without a party breakdown I can't see if they are favoring one over the other so maybe they (and Harris) are right. A 7 pt bump since Reagan died is not to be unexpected.

[POA2]

Tony - buzz off - I've already posted a positive message on this thread before you were ever here -

I am as ardent a GWB supporter as there is - that does not mean I fall lock step and barrel in with his reelection team and how they have run this campaign -

The fact remains, we are getting killed by DEM 527's and his reelection team blew it for him (FOR GWB) by not seeing this coming - this is what he pays them millions for!

Lastly - no intellectually honest person can deny - as an incumbent - most incumbents that have won are sitting much better off the GWB is now - Period.

Just because you don't like those facts - doesn't mean you should run those down who bring them out -

And for the record I don't think anyone on here (besides COOP) has been a bigger supporter of GWB and the WOT and in Iraq then I have been (with my posts).

[GROOVY]

you say

no intellectually honest person can deny - as an incumbent - most incumbents that have won are sitting much better off the GWB is now

when you say "much better off" what do you mean in terms of percentage points.. 3 or 4 points higher?

[POA2]

Yes, I mean most incumbents that have won - have shown a steady lead for most of the year of there election - be it from 4 to 9pts -

Also, no other incumbent in history has had such a partisan media out against them -

No other incumbent has had an opposition party having the resources that the DEM 527's have now - and are killing GWB with daily - Again, since March DEM 527's have out spend GOP leaning 527's by over $40 million - like it or not, this is defining GWB - this is defining the economy (as bad) - this is defining Iraq (as wrong and a losing effort) -

While those things aren't true - the GWB reelection team has done a terrible job at offsetting those attacks -

The GWB team has done a terrible job at getting out a coherent message in terms of the economy, Iraq and the WOT.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

ElectionProjection.com does a head-to-head analysis using a combination of head-to-head polls, approval ratings and right-track/wrong-track numbers. Is that who you were thinking of?

No, it was a FReeper, but thanks for that site. I checked them out, he has it tied at 269-269 and Kerry with 50.2% of the popular vote. I couldn't see how he got that but when I checked the details, he's about 10 days old with his data and doesn't have the Harris poll and the recent good polls for Bush so that explains it.

He's calling for a Bush win and stated that his low water mark came about a month ago, so I doubt he's biased for Kerry. Realclearpolitics.com is right up to date.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Anyone know why Rasmussen's numbers wouldn't track somewhat closely with Harris & Fox?

Random number generator. Start with 45 as a base for each candidate and roll a -2 to +2 die for each candidate and there you go. Or something like that.

Seriously, his head to head poll hasn't shown any trends at all for 5 months. That's surprising. The state polls are better.

[COURAGE]

Bush is in deep do-do.

[bitt]

yankeedoodle do-do.

[justshutupandtakeit]

I will not admit that Bush will win until the Electoral College meets. Until then he is down as far as I am concerned.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Have you heard of the Club for Growth anti-Kerry spot that's now playing? It's a direct hit, and its the truth unlike the Dem 527 ads. He's going to take a beating on our ads.

[POA2]

I love two new Club For Growth ad's that I have seen - Problem is, they don't have the money to compete -

Again, we have been outspent by DEM 527's by over $40 million since March alone - By the time NOV comes I seen one person at NRO suggesting we will have been outspent by DEM 527's by over $125 million!

Not having a ground game up and running on 527's has hurt us big time (and I guarantee if we lose this NOV - this is what it will be blamed on)

[NYC Republican]

You can add Rasmussen to that list. Bush is ahead by 2

[WarrenC]

According to Larry Sabato, the election analyst from the U. Va., President Bush is in much better shape than the incumbent presidents who have lost their bids for re-election. Sabato points out that the W's approval rating has stabilized in the high 40's -- not dipping into the sub-40's as Carter's and GHWB's did. I believe that thread on FR is titled "2004 vs. 1980".

Plus the economic news has been good and will continue to be.

[FlipWilson]

Uh, yes, they do have the money to compete and other organizations are on the way. Unlike Moveon, the Club for Growth does not have to disclose their donors. Bottom line, the Dems opened the door, the Republicans are now going to burst through it, stay tuned.

[curmudgeonII]

I like Fox news, but I don't believe this poll.

[comebacknewt]

On another thread, it was mentioned that this FoxNews poll also included a survey of Ohio and Pennsylvania residents. W was ahead by 4 in OH and by 5 in PA.