Vinroot leads among N.C. GOP voters, poll finds (Numbers indicate Easley still big challenge)

Former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot leads the half-dozen Republicans running for governor, but with the primary a month away he is short of what he needs for an outright victory, a new statewide poll shows.

Representatives for former state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey and former state Sen. Patrick Ballantine, who are the second and third Republican choices, said Friday that they are within striking distance.

But whoever is the Republican nominee could face a tough fight against Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, suggests the poll, conducted this week for a partnership of The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.

Of 500 Republican voters surveyed, Vinroot received 33 percent, Cobey 23 percent and Ballantine 15 percent. The other three candidates were in single digits. Eighteen percent of voters were undecided. The survey had a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

If no candidate gets at least 40 percent plus one of the July 20 primary vote, the two top finishers face off in an Aug. 17 runoff.

Chris Neeley, Vinroot's campaign manager, cheered the numbers, seeing the campaign picking up voters in the past month who had been undecided.

"Richard's right where we were last time four years ago," Neeley said, in a position to win the primary outright. This is Vinroot's third run for governor.

Ballantine's campaign director discounted the results, saying its own poll showed him in second place behind Vinroot.

Cobey's campaign, however, said he is running a strong second, in a position to win the primary or force a runoff.

"Our singular focus in the primary is Mayor Vinroot," said Jeff Miller, Cobey's campaign spokesman. "The real key is the undecided vote. We think that Bill has the issues that will play well to the base."

The Republican nominee will go up against a governor who 56 percent of voters say is doing an excellent or good job. Forty-four percent also said they would re-elect Easley, 29 percent would consider voting for another candidate, and 27 percent would vote to replace him.

Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the polling firm that did the survey, said that to win, Easley would need only one-fifth of the voters who say they would consider voting for someone else.

"It's Easley's race to lose," Ali said.

Easley also boasts more campaign cash than any of his potential challengers. And he wields the power of the office, which he demonstrated Thursday by announcing a day early that hiring in the state increased in May for the fourth month in a row.

Forty-two percent approved of the way Easley is handling the economy, which voters say is by far the most important issue facing North Carolina; 34 percent disapproved and 24 percent were not sure.

A total of 600 people who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed Sunday through Wednesday.

Jay Reiff, Easley's campaign manager, called the numbers "solid" and a reflection of recent job growth.

But Republicans are ready to criticize Easley for raising taxes and are eager to credit President Bush for the economic upturn.

"We're going to be dealing with Mike Easley's full record as governor," said Ballantine campaign director Bob Rosser, "not just the last six months, when he's turned on the political charm."

Staff writer Lynn Bonner can be reached at 829-4821 or lbonner@newsobserver.com.