55% / 45% and 38 states. I call a landslide.
Bookmark.
I think you pegged it just about right. It will not be close. I can't wait to pull up a chair and watch Peter/Tom/Dan/Chris/CNN sputter and fume and spin as they try to speculate as to why the American people are so dumb/uninformed/uncaring as to reject the liberal Dem candidate.
I hope you're right. I think Bush is 75% likely to win. I'd call it as follows.
Bush 54 Kerry 46 - (40 states to 10) 25% Likely
Bush 51 Kerry 49 - (33 states to 17, no one goes to bed earlier than 2 am) 50% likely
Kerry 52 - Bush 48- (32 states to 18) - 25% likely.
25% is likely enough to be scary. November is time to walk precincts at GOTV.
I hope that you are right.
55/45? I think the margin will be at least double that. It won't be a 1984-level blowout, but certainly one for the record books.