'We Know Something Will Happen Again - And Soon' (Saudi Arabia)

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 6-13-2004 | Damien McElroy/David Wastell

[blam]

'We know something will happen again - and soon'

By Damien McElroy in Riyadh and David Wastell
(Filed: 13/06/2004)

The white saloon, its boot wide open, sits on a Riyadh highway in front of an American-owned hotel for two days. The hotel security staff gaze at it but take no action. The occupants of a police car drive by and ignore it.

In a city where nerves are on edge, it is a frightening spectacle - a suspect vehicle that the security forces haven't towed away. It confirms the fear of expatriates that Saudi security remains too lax to cope with the threat from Muslim fanatics determined to drive all infidels out of the kingdom.

"We're told that the penny has dropped, that the security forces are fully ready to protect us," says one British expatriate. "When you see things like this, you know something's going to happen again, soon."

Fear has gripped many expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia since groups linked to al-Qaeda launched a series of brutal attacks on Westerners last month.

The worst of them came two weeks ago when al-Qaeda gunmen, attempting to "clean" the country of non-Muslims, took scores of hostages and killed 22 people - all foreign workers - during a 25-hour rampage through a business complex and a residential compound in the oil city of Khobar. Three of the attackers escaped, apparently let out by security forces in return for the lives of a further 40 hostages.

Last week a BBC cameraman was shot dead as he filmed footage for a report about the fear among workers in the kingdom after the hostage-taking and other attacks in the country.

Anti-terrorist detectives from Scotland Yard have now flown to Saudi Arabia to investigate the shooting of Simon Cumbers, 36, and that of the BBC security correspondent, Frank Gardner, 42, who was critically injured in the incident.

On Radio 4's From our Own Correspondent, in his last dispatch before the shooting, Gardner reported on a memorial service for Michael Hamilton, the British banker whose body was dragged through the streets of Khobar during an attack that left 22 people dead.

"Bankers, diplomats, teachers and oil workers stood silently while tribute was paid to a man they had so often waved to in the street, only to hear he had been slaughtered," he reports.

"This is a country that thousands of Britons have made their home for years. Now, slowly, they are coming to terms with the fact that if the terrorist attacks on westerners continue, they may have to consider leaving Saudi Arabia before it is too late."

Two days later it was too late for Robert Jacobs, an American adviser to the National Guard. He was shot dead in his home.

Visitors to Saudi Arabia are warned not to move around without government protection, despite fears that some officials are colluding with extremists. The minder and driver who accompanied Gardner and Cumbers were arrested after investigators refused to rule out the theory that they tipped off the attackers.

For years, the Saudi government has invested heavily in weaponry, radar systems, barricades and trained manpower to prevent attacks on oil installations, refineries and pipelines.

By attacking places where foreigners gather instead, militants are hitting at the soft underbelly of a country that until now has relied on 100,000 Westerners and millions of guest workers from the developing world to sustain its economy.

Many expatriates linger on, barricaded inside the luxury compounds. Wages and bonuses remain a powerful attraction for engineers and managers liberated from taxes, mortgages and the other burdens of living in the West. Some complain that the rewards have become a compulsion with Saudi Arabian employers refusing to pay out on contracts that have not expired.

"I can't leave until December," says a Scottish banker working for a state-owned bank. "By then I'll have worked for four years and I'll get a 40 per cent bonus. I can't walk away from that."

Tim Lane, an Ulsterman who has been travelling to Saudi Arabia for 25 years, arrived in Riyadh last Thursday. This visit, he thinks, will be his last.

"I can't say I'm surprised about what has been happening. It's been growing for years. The young people are very anti-Western. There's a lot of resentment that the money hasn't been spread around. I came this week but if I had been due next week I'd probably have stayed at home; it's getting more dangerous all the time."

Others continue to live quietly in middle-class neighbourhoods alongside locals, hoping that there is still protection in relative anonymity. But security assumptions have been exposed as wishful thinking, and throughout the kingdom arrangements are being made to up sticks.

Norman Edwards, the principal of the British school in Damman, an oil town in the eastern quarter, is leaving next week, after seeing his pupil roll dwindle. "The recent Khobar attack was too much," he says.

On the internet, the militants, led by a veteran lieutenant of Osama bin Laden, Abdulaziz al-Muqrin, have vowed to drive all non-believers out of the birthplace of Islam, and thus trigger the downfall of a weakened Saudi royal family.

Many Saudis have warned for years that reform of the royal House of Saud is the only long-term antidote to deepening chaos. Prince Abdullah, the crown prince, has made hesitant attempts to kickstart reform with a series of national dialogues, but frequently diehards within the defence and security establishment have ordered the arrest of reformists who addressed the sessions.

"We cannot go just in the one direction of security and rely on the tribal base to sustain the system," says Sami Angawi, a prominent liberal based in Jeddah. "We are always trying to put out the fire, not to address the source."

Western leaders adopted a programme for democratising the Middle East at the G8 meeting in Georgia last week but were rebuffed by the Saudi government.

Its attitude dismays Mr Angawi, who fears the militants will succeed in further isolating the kingdom from the West. "Why should we be afraid of trying the direction of reform by seeking the help of those who are serious in helping us?" he says.

Saudi officials say that the first step to quelling the wave of terror is to neuter the religious appeal of the perpetrators of violence. A fatwa issued in the 12th century remains the religious justification used by Osama bin Laden's followers to wage jihad against the Western suburbanites who live there.

Dr Saleh al Shaikh, Saudi Arabia's minister of Islamic affairs, insists that there was almost no support for terrorism within the kingdom, and says many of those being hunted by the government in connection with the recent attacks were from abroad - including Yemenis and Moroccans. He told The Sunday Telegraph that anger at the Palestinian problem and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq had caused "a lot of hateful feelings in the Muslim world".

Al-Qaeda was exploiting this anger, he says. "But the action of killing foreigners in Saudi Arabia is completely rejected by the people here except for the few who represent this strand of thinking."

Such killing is against Islamic teaching, says Dr Al-Shaikh, 44, a religious academic and an authority in Shariah law. "These actions are crimes and are prohibited by the Koran. The Prophet himself, peace be upon him, urged us to give peace and security to those who come to our land, and whoever killed a person come to us will never enter paradise."

He says that since the 1970s Saudi religious scholars have preached against killing and hijacking, and continued to do so. However, extremists ignored them, preferring to listen to the more belligerent pronouncements of Muslim leaders abroad.

Mullahs that sympathise with extremists are being replaced and plans are being prepared to reform the national curriculum. "We are taking out the elements which are not proper and replacing them with what is proper," says Dr Al-Shaikh. "Teachings that are against the West, that call for total hatred and encourage fear of others, are being replaced."

Yet, he says, the Saudi government feels it faces an uphill battle so long as the Palestinian problem is unresolved and "every day tens and scores of Muslims are killed".

When a group of Britons gathered at dusk for a barbecue in the Sudar Compound in Riyadh last week, the discussion quickly came round to the precautions they were taking to protect against attack.

Just getting into the compound is an arduous process, though the guards are poorly paid and not particularly diligent. One, a thin man with an ill-fitting uniform, slips a mirror on wheels under the car to check for explosives.

"You can't trust them," mutters Reg McDonald (not his real name), one of the residents. "They report on our movements. It's all for money, you know, but that's how it is."

Some of the residents feel compelled to take security matters into their own hands: one man secretly bought a revolver to keep under the mattress; three others have recently bought body armour and another keeps a club into which he has battered a line of four-inch nails.

Inside the gate, the dust of the desert and the smell of the souk are a distant memory. Instead, we are surrounded by the trappings of American-style suburban living.

Big cars sit on driveways. Birds flit from the trees and gardeners shuffle about on manicured lawns. There are few signs that children live here, other than the odd bicycle or abandoned toys.

A mosque overlooks Mr McDonald's wall in the compound. "I was in the pool last Friday when l heard them shouting about jihad during the prayers. I know things won't be right. They found photographs of the compound inside the mosque last year."

The house is built for a family of four but is as spartan as a bachelor pad, and Mr McDonald has stacked most of his belongings in piles, ready for a quick getaway. "This is the good life," Mr McDonald announces with a hollow laugh. "Paranoia by the pool."

[LoudRepublicangirl]

Two days later it was too late for Robert Jacobs, an American adviser to the National Guard. He was shot dead in his home

He was from my town.

[Humidston]

A fatwa issued in the 12th century remains the religious justification used by Osama

This is beyond stupid!!

[Leisler]

Reminds me of the Iran.

The Saudis might not be just like us, but they haven't been our enemy. If a few thousand thugs and Saudi spinelessness cause SArabia to go to the wackjobs, imagine what they could do with the money, let alone the oil. If you think Iraq was shaky, try invading Saudi Arabia to either keep the oil going, or toss the Wackatollas.

Pay now, or pay later, but there will be a bill.

[clintonh8r]

Saudi security is an oxymoron. I think most middle eastern men are cowards.

[Humidston]

It's about time we stand up and tell the truth: Terrorists/Islamofascists are too CHICKEN to fight our warriors so they creep around in the dark - like little COCKROACHES - and kill women and children and shoot men in the back.

They fight like WOMEN! And they do that because they don't have any masculine traits.

IF OUR WARRIORS CONFRONT THEM, THEY WET THEIR PANTIES LIKE BABY GIRLS!

Jihad/fatwa, my butt!

[America's Resolve]

"every day tens and scores of Muslims are killed".

They always seem to get back to this. No matter what the subject of discussion is, this is always tacked onto the end of it.

But truth to tell, there are only 7 million "Palistinians". If Saudi Arabia really felt this strongly about them, they'd find a place for them in the kingdom and share some of that oil wealth with them. Put up or shut up.

When Islam starts to be as concerned about the nonmulsims getting killed in all these hotspots as they are worried about all the mulsims that get killed in these hotspots, then I'll worry about the muslims as well. Till then, not interested.

[oceanview]

to the Saudi National guard? The Saudi National guard is supposedly infiltrated with these AQ guys.

[RightWhale]

The US gets some oil from Saudi. But their main customers are Europe and Japan, China, to now. Let the land of Venus in the horns of the bull be handled by their main customers.

Americans have to stay in Saudi for 18 months to avoid the income tax and collect their bonus. Nice money. Hope it's worth it.

[LoudRepublicangirl]

Yeah, that's how I figure they got him. I think this particular group he was consulting for are the ones who are suppose to be protecting members of the Royal Family. His family has not been given specifics yet of what happened as of yesterday.

[Endeavor]

The Saudis are indeed our enemies. The House of Saud used the Wahhabis to gain power and feeds their islamofacism via enormous bribes to this day. They allow the murderous teachings of the Wahhabis throughout the country in islamic schools. Don't be fooled.

[Leisler]

Again, reminds me of the carping on Shah of Iran. I think the House of Saud is weak and the isalmofaschists know it.

Yeah, the 6,000 have made a pact with the devil, but someone is going to run the dump, and I'd rather have the equivalent of the corrupt, oily Shah, then OSama. Furthermore, I betting on human nature, that the average tv watching, Gucci wearing, Chevy driving Saudi schmuck doesn't like being told what to do by the limp-wrist Princes, or the bearded Immans.

[river rat]

How long would Saudi Arabia be habitable, if all "infidels" were evacuated and all Air and Sea commerce were blockaded?

As long as we could do without THEIR oil?

Semper Fi

[Southack]

"But truth to tell, there are only 7 million "Palistinians". If Saudi Arabia really felt this strongly about them, they'd find a place for them in the kingdom and share some of that oil wealth with them. Put up or shut up."

Don't be naive, there isn't enough money to go around Saudi Arabia as it is, that's what's fueling their unrest in the first place (remember where those 15 hijackers came from on 9/11).

Consider, 30 years ago Saudi Arabia had some 7 million citizens and was able to subsidize an average of $30,000 per year, per citizen (their primary source of income).

Now fast forward to today, where modern Saudi Arabia has 19 million citizens and 6 million guest workers.

For those 19 million citizens, Saudi Arabia sells 8 million barrel of oil per day. Even if they can get a record $40 per barrel for an entire year, that's only $320 million per day, $116,800,000,000 per year...which averages out (excluding production and shipping expenses) to a mere $6,147 per year, per Saudi citizen.

So they've gone from $30,000 per year, per citizen down to $6,147 over the last 30 years.

Can you imagine the riots in America if average salaries were 1/5 of 30 years ago?! Well, that's what has happened in Saudi Arabia.

[Southack]

"How long would Saudi Arabia be habitable, if all "infidels" were evacuated and all Air and Sea commerce were blockaded?"

No one has to blockade anything.

For the last 80 years, Saudi Arabia has relied upon underground aquifers for its drinking water. Knowing that these remaining pools of water were rapidly being exhausted by Saudi Arabia's population growth, the Saudi's have been buying large amounts of desalination units to make salt water potable again.

In the meantime, most of their underwater acquifers finally dried up late last year.

Without putting too fine of a point on things, their country is now dependent upon those relatively few machines.

So what you will see if al-qaeda gets agressive about toppling the Saudis is that the terrorists will start targeting those desalination units with a vengeance.

Should most of those units be temporarily decommissioned, the country would survive well only for days, and then things would go to hell in a handbasket.

An attack of this nature during the hottest months, say in June or July when temperatures are routinely soaring past 115 degrees, would amplify the effects of the loss of those desalination plants.

The obvious short-term patch would be water trucked in from foreign desalination plants. A smart enemy would have abushes and road mines prepared for those inevitable convoy attempts. Delaying water for a mere few days could cause the necessary destabilization.

Don't get me wrong, the U.S. can step in and supply water via offshore, shipboard desalination, trucked in water, rapid water pipelines, and a variety of other means...but the timing could become critical.

For instance, how long would the Saud family itself stay in country if they were personally low on water?

Even so, I place the odds of success of such an attack very low...but higher for that asymetric angle than for anything that al-qaeda has tried to date.

[Lijahsbubbe]

Pay now, or pay later, but there will be a bill.

As the man said in the article, he's not surprised, he's seen it coming. The middle east has been bubbling for awhile now, ready to blow its lid. The bill is also coming due on Iran and Syria. In the end it will all come down to Israel and Jerusalem.

Our President is one shrewd man. I thank G-d he's in office.

[McGavin999]

Well that would certainly solve the over population problem. Something like that happens and I would imagine the population would be cut in half in the first couple of days.

Actually, I think the Saudi royal family would be more likely to blow the water system as well as the oil wells if Al Qaeda overthrows them.

[Travis McGee]

The oil is in the east, the people are in the west, and a desert is in between.

Kick their ass, and take their gas, come to it.

[Travis McGee]

Desal water is only one critical node among many in SA.

[Southack]

Aye, but prior to the end of last year, the Saudi's still had enough water left in underground acquifers to survive a temporary hit on easily replaceable desal units. Perhaps they've been clever-enough to have established a strategic water reserve, though (one hopes).

Your truly "critical" nodes are food, water, and air, though. On water, they appear rather vulnerable right now.

Even a "short" disruption in water could prove somewhat destabilizing.