Posted on 06/06/2004 10:55:07 PM PDT by Dont Mention the War
June 7, 2004
Hundreds of seats are likely to change hands, with Labour set to lose up to 400 and to see its share of the vote plummet to below 30 per cent. The Lib Dems are on course to sweep up seats in Labour urban areas in the North with the Tories likely to gain inner-city seats in the South and the Midlands.
But the combination of council, European and London mayoral elections has made it almost impossible to make predictions about June 10 and the chaos of postal ballots has muddied the picture further.
The big test for Michael Howard will be whether his party can make any advance in the North where the Tories have hardly any representatives. Tony Blair’s position will look distinctly uncomfortable if Labour loses any of its big northern metropolitan councils such as Newcastle upon Tyne or Leeds. Mr Blair is counting on a big turnout in the four all-postal ballot regions to boost the Labour vote.
Some 4,807 council seats are up for election in England, including all 2,445 in the 36 metropolitan districts. A further 1,264 seats are being contested in the 22 Welsh councils.
Dozens of councils where control is already finely balanced are expected to change party hands or move into no overall control. But the three parties are sending their big guns into about 20 councils where big upsets are possible.
The Lib Dems have their eyes set on taking both Newcastle upon Tyne and Sheffield from Labour but are also expecting to gain Pendle and Kirklees from no overall control. Local party campaigners are predicting a gain in St Albans which is also hung.
The Tories will do well in affluent and urban areas in the South but will look more convincing if they pick up seats in the North. The party is reticent about its targets but campaigners are out in force in Trafford, Dudley, Coventry and Calderdale where they hope to take control.
Michael Howard has also made visits to Birmingham, a three-way split where the Tories and the Lib Dems are expected to benefit from Labour losses. The Tories may also do well in Bury and Bradford, Harrogate and Swindon.
Labour has put its main efforts into defending its key councils but it could lose overall control of Newcastle, Leeds, Wolverhampton and North Tyneside. It could also lose control of Cardiff, and sustain big losses to independent candidates throughout Wales.
June 10 may also see the end of traditional two-party politics, with minor parties and independent candidates making big inroads into the Labour and Tory vote.
The UKIP, the BNP, the Greens and Respect (George Galloway’s anti-war party) are expected to chip away at the two main parties from the far Right and the far Left in both the European and local elections. Independent candidates, who took control of Mansfield last year, are also fielding a record number of candidates this year, after signs that local issues have a bigger impact than national policies.
Tony Travers, local government expert at the London School of Economics, said that Labour and the Tories might only pick up 62-63 per cent of the vote between them. In the past they would have picked up 85-90 per cent. “This begs the question as to whether we are beginning to see a serious erosion of two big coalitions as political parties. The UKIP and the nationalist parties are nibbling at the far Right of the Tories while the Greens and Respect are threatening the Left of Labour. The Liberal Democrats are nibbling at both main parties in the middle.”
While the minor parties might not pick up councils, they could split the vote in hundreds of wards and overturn expected results.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/vote2004/locals/flash_map/html/local_intro.stm.
Here's hoping my old hunt of Cambridgeshire gets a larger Majority of Conservatives, and maybe the C's will gets a larger amount of seats in the city then labour does. (The LD rule there, typical college town, huh?) I would love to go to the Grafton and catch a movie with my mates. Home Sweet Home.
Looks to me at present that the Lib Dems will retain their control here- although probably the Tories will get a few more seats at the expense of Labour, which may well really be squeezed badly. At least this seems to be the general consensus- I was talking to both the secretary of the University Lib Dems and somebody from the Tory society, and they both had the same prediction. And as for the Grafton centre- well good luck mate in seeing anything that isn't Harry Potter. 12 screens, and they show the same film on 11! Half term, I suppose...
afternoon bump
If any Brits would like to explain to those of us in America what it all means, I think others besides myself would appreciate it!
IOW, who are the good guys and who are the bad guys?
Well, I'll do my best. OK. On June 10th we've got two sets of elections- the European elections (for the European Parliament) and Local elections (for town councils etc). Current polls indicate that Labour (i.e Blair's party) is going to do very badly for various reasons, the most obvious being the War and also a general practice of protest voting against the government in such elections.
I'd guess what's going to happen is that the Labour losses in the Local elections are going to be to the fairly equal advantage of both the Conservatives (who you'd like) and the Lib Dems (who you wouldn't). The Lib Dems are likely to grab quite a few town councils in the North, areas which are traditional Labour heartlands, while the Conservatives may make gains in towns in the South, in which they really need to revive themselves if they're to have any chance of winning the next election. The BNP (fascist thugs) may win a few council seats as well, but only on a fairly small scale. This will doubtless cause a gigantic and generally pointless panic, with lots of media navel gazing.
On the European front, things are less clear. I'd guess Labour will take losses again, and because of the Proportional Representational system used in European elections minor parties will make gains. The most obvious beneficiary of this will be UKIP (UK Independence Party), which campaigns for closed borders and wihdrawal from the EU. Some people here like them- I most definately do not (their leader used to be my local MP when he was still in the Conservative party, and it most definately does not reflect well on UKIP that he's in charge). Other smaller parties may well make gains as well, and the three main parties may find themselves to be squeezed somewhat.
So overall- Labour losses (a good thing), some Tory gains (a good thing) and a good (if almost certainly flash-in-the-pan) showing for UKIP (good depending on whether you like that sort of thing, which I don't)
Hope this helps.
Thanks for the information - gives me small clue about the politics in Britain.
On a personal notes - what's your viewpoint on the EU and, why do you not like the UKIP?
TIA
My pleasure, always glad to be of help.
Ok, why I don't like UKIP. Don't know a huge amount about UKIP as a party, but for what it's worth their leader (Roger Knapman) is an utter, unmitigated tosser- the archetype of the upper-class, arrogant, superior and slightly shady politician who feels that it's god-given right to govern (I can't think of an American example offhand, but I'm sure you know the type).
The guy used to be my MP before he was kicked out in 1997, and strutted around the place like it was his own personal fiefdom. He was infamous round my way for being overheard telling an aide that he thought the good people of Stroud (his constituency) were "f*cking peasants". The voters understandably took exception to this, and now we have an excellent constituency MP. If that's the best that the party has to offer then I really don't want to think what their less able candidates are like.
Also, in my opinion any vote for them can only hurt the Conservatives at a time when they need encouragement, not protest votes cast against them- If Michael Howard does badly in these elections then whispering campaigns about his suitablilty for the leadership will begin again, just as the Tories have managed to get out of several years of infighting.
As for Europe, I'd say I'm more pragmatic then many people here- I'm a Eurosceptic rather then a Europhobe. Personally I think that as Europe is naturally going to influence what happens in Britain no matter whether we're in or out (look at Norway for example- despite being outside the EU most of the trade-laws are EU compliant because of the amount of trade they do with the continent), we should be in at the centre of power and try and make things go as much in our best interests as possible. My model I suppose is Thatcher's policy on Europe whilst in government (certainly not her current position)- make sure we use all our power to make things go in the way we want. Contrast that policy to UKIP, whose members in the European Parliament refuse to vote- denying from having any influence whatsoever.
Sure, there's a lot wrong with Europe. But it's better to try and fix these things from the inside then going off in a huff and letting the French run the thing for their own interests with no restraint.
Hmm - thanks for the comments. What is Thatcher's current position on the EU?
I can understand about not wanting the French to have their way without restraint. I just loathe anything that takes away from self-determination, or smacks of socialism. There's plenty of creeping (or more accurately, leaping and bounding) socialism here.
Thatcher's current position is that Britain should leave the EU immediately- and she likes to portray this as always having been her view which is palpable rubbish. It's a great pity, as the policy she followed towards Europe throughout most of her premiership was very sensible, making the EU work to the advantage of Britain and trying to shape it away from the 'Federalism' favoured by figures such as Jacques Delors and more towards a looser grouping.
The thing to remember with the EU is that it isn't just an impostion on Britain- Britain has a (actually quite disproportionate) say in the workings of the EU as well. There are British bureaucrats in Brussels as well, and we can veto anything we don't like. Nobody (except a tiny group of people whose influence is rapidy declining) really wants a centralised European state- least of all the French, who just want to grab as much as they can (and who can blame them?). When this is realised, it makes sense to stay in and get the best deal we possibly can- that's what everyone else is doing, after all.
Thank you very much - I appreciate hearing from the locals. :-)
(PS I visited England as a child and must say I thought the countryside very beautiful - especially remember the Stongehenge area. Of course in those days we went right up to it.)
Always a pleasure. I come here to try and gain an understanding of American Conservatism- if I can reciprocate for British Toryism then that's an added bonus.
It is nice round Stonehenge- not too far far from where I live actually, in the Cotswolds. Now that is a lovely part of the world (although at present I'm studying in Cambridge which has far too few hills for my taste :) ). I see you're a Californian, so I'd better repay the compliment; we did a driving holiday from LA to Sacramento via San Fransisco a couple of years back, and some of the scenery was utterly beautiful- especially Monterey way.
If Labour loses a lot of seats, will that make PM Blair have to resign? Or, is this election for other than MP's, such as mayors, ect.?
California has gone crazy in the three plus decades since I first migrated here.
I live way, way up north near the OR border, and a different world it is!
As for Madame Thatcher, her position is correct. The United Kingdom does not need the limits of EU membership on it. The EU places restrictions and regulations on markets and free enterprise. I can think of a store clerk who paid a huge fine (or jail time, can't remember) because he violated EU regulations that forbide the posting of price by weight in American Pounds. They have to use Kilos. This one is silly, and others are damaging. Britian owes no allegince to Europe, and Europe has brought Britain NOTHING but heartache these past 2 centurys. Labour, and the Lib Dems, spout socialism and Europeanism and keep saying 'we are one with Europe' over and over. If you say something enough people will start to believe it. Britain needs to renegotiate.
I like what the Iron Lady suggested. 1st, Keep the Pound. Brits determine Brits financal policies. 2nd, renogotiate with the EU. People will say, 'thats not fair, you just want whats best for you'. Well no Dauh! Britain needs to look out for Britain, just like America looks out for America. 3rd, join NAFTA or something like it In 1999, (last year I have the stats for) Britain did 48% of its trade with Americas. They only do 35% of their trade with EU countries. Yet that 35% can regulate trade policy.
The EU is just another in a long line of attempts to create a balance in which no one can dominate. Search for Condi Rice and Multipolarism on yahoo or somewhere like it. (Europeans have been doing it since the Congress of Vienna back in the day. 1600 something, i think) The result is always the same. France running all over Europe in the 19th century, and Germany in the 20th. This system only works if everyone behaves. Do you really believe the French or the Germans really consider Poland or Slovakia as equals? I don't, The only reason Europe has behaved is the nightmares of WW2 and failed revolts against the soviets still linger. Now they want to restore the system that allowed Germany to dominate previously. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 20 years.
Just a little 'factoide'. Thatcher was strongly opposed to reuniting the Germanys. She believed a united Germany would again dominate Continental Europe. we'll see...
Thanks for an additional viewpoint.
No, Blair won't have to resign. These elections are for city and town councils and the European Parliament, not for Parliamentary seats. If Labour does very badly however, he will suffer a loss of personal credibility- most worryingly for him inside the Labour party. Many within Labour are begining to question whether Blair is still an electoral asset- and the second they feel he is costing Labour votes he will be in serious trouble.
Thanks. I was wondering about that.
What's the difference between a lib dem and labor?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.