Posted on 06/04/2004 9:11:52 PM PDT by blam
Washington will prop up the House of Saud - for now
Saudi Arabia has descended into a cauldron of hatreds and divisions
Mai Yamani
Saturday June 5, 2004
The Guardian (UK)
Long before the latest violence erupted, Saudi Arabia's immaculately suited spokesmen were out on the stump, telling anyone who would listen that the situation in the country was completely under control. They're now doing it again - only this time nobody believes them.
All the signs suggest that in the face of mounting violence and international pressure, the House of Saud has sunk into terminal denial and paralysis. Convinced that their enemies are all around them, they are nevertheless unable to locate them. Even when gunmen are totally surrounded in a building, three of them succeed in escaping. Last year the aged King Fahd threatened militants with his "iron fist", but they have gone on killing regardless.
While the princes have insisted reforms are in progress, they continue to fling reformists themselves into jail - and intimidate others into keeping quiet. The government maintains its oil installations are completely safe from attack - and yet high-level oil analysts insist the Saudi security forces which guard them are infiltrated by extremists.
Such contradictions suggest that very little is currently under control in the Saudi kingdom.
While expatriates consider whether to depart en masse, reports from the Gulf say that staff members of one of the more entrepreneurial princes have asked officials in Dubai to find them living space. They might well be re-locating in the near future.
But it would be wrong to predict any immediate collapse of the state. Despite a marked cooling in relations, Saudi Arabia remains the key ally of the US in the region. With continuing violence in Iraq, Washington's priority is to prevent Saudi Arabia descending into similar anarchy, even if it means propping up a regime it no longer likes or trusts. American demands for reform have quietened in the past few months, which may explain their muted response to the clampdown on Saudi liberals last March.
While oil prices remain exceptionally high and with a US presidential election in November, Saudi Arabia is the pump that cannot be allowed to run dry. Predictably, the kingdom is determined to remind the Bush administration of its central role in the world economy and politics, aware that if peace breaks out in neighbouring Iraq, it will lose some important leverage.
Already its influence in the Gulf has been badly shaken. The smaller states no longer need Saudi Arabia for protection and security, and no longer look to Riyadh for a lead on the international stage. Moreover, some have clearly replaced the Saudi state in Washington's affections, especially as they move ahead with political and economic reforms, outstripping the kingdom's own meagre efforts.
It is now known that a number of those Gulf rulers have been lining up to tell the Saudis that reform is their only chance of survival, and that it may already be too late. But even those princes who accept that notion - such as Crown Prince Abdullah - no longer appear to hold sway in the cabinet.
In any case, the Saudi state has become such a cauldron of hatreds and divisions - many now highlighted by the war in Iraq - that reforms favouring one group would almost certainly be rejected by another.
Regional rivalries have been sharply exacerbated. The Asir region is viewed by many as partly Yemeni. The Hijazis see themselves as a separate cultural and religious entity. After decades of exclusion from key jobs, the Shia in the oil-rich province are deeply ambivalent about their Saudi identity and feel newly empowered by Shia advances in Iraq.
Conceivably, they could begin to demand their own state. Some even talk about Shia political power as a disease that could spread into Saudi Arabia and engulf it. If Iraq were ever to sink into civil war, the Saudis themselves would be hard-pressed to hold their nation together.
To the Saudi royal family nothing is more troubling than the Shia questions. All Saudi Shia are followers of the Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani - so they already look across the border for guidance. Bearded, turbaned and cloaked Shia clerics, now far more visible in Iraq, terrify the minority Saudi Wahhabis. From being the region's big losers over the last few decades, many Shia now feel they can redress the balance, settle old scores and control the oil wealth.
As they review their options, the Saudis have probably concluded that they can live with a Shia-dominated government in Iraq, but only if it contains prominent Sunni faces. All the same, relations won't be easy.
Shia ideology is in direct collision with the Sunni Wahhabi doctrine that underpins the Saudi state and frequently labels the Shia as "heretics".
For months, the Saudi government has trumpeted its "national dialogue" which brought together Ismaelis, Sufis, Shia and Salafis for unprecedented talks, chaired by Crown Prince Abdullah. But this is little more than window-dressing. The Wahhabi establishment has no appetite for the discussions and has made clear it is not in the reform business. For the first time, leading Saudi figures are talking privately of schism and the possibility of religious war.
So there are no comfortable options for the Saudi royal family. Announce a hurried series of reforms and the princes will be seen to have bowed to American pressure and will face the wrath of the clergy. Do nothing, and even the moderates will turn against them and into the arms of the extremists. Offer government posts to the Shia, curb the powers of the ubiquitous religious police - the Mutawa - and another backlash would follow.
Meanwhile, al-Qaida attacks with relative impunity. Some security experts believe that key installations like Ras Tanoura and Abqaiq, the world's largest oil processing complex, are vulnerable to attack. Questions about the competence and loyalty of elements within the security forces are denied by the authorities. Nevertheless, recent attacks have revealed intricate personal and tribal links between those forces and the violent jihadis.
Revolution may not be imminent, but the security situation seems bound to deteriorate, provoking fresh splits in the kingdom's complex political and religious architecture.
Without a clear plan of action, it's not surprising that the Saudi leadership has put its head in the sand.
if the place erupts - US forces will seize the oil fields. Because if we don't - we will have a worldwide economic depression.
Our friends, the Saudi's:
Funded 911.
Purchased nuclear weapons for unstable Islamic Pakistan.
Routinely kidnap and rape American citizens.
I WANNA SEE EM BURN
My fear.
;-/
Why wait? If it's stability we want in the region, instead of dealing with two headed snakes that wear bathrobes, lets seize them now. We'll be nice, an give them a little fuel now and then so they can still go to camel races in their rolls royces.
Not bloody likely. Greenspan will print money until he runs out of trees.
You may see $120 if the HOS falls.
It will be worth it.
B.S.
The ruling royals wanted Saddam removed. They helped us do it.
Yup. I read that they contributed $10 billion to Gulf War-2.
Actually the stakes are so high for the entire industrialized world that a very large coalition of nations would agree on seizing the Saudi oil fields if necessary.
I know! The United Nations can handle it! Yeah...
Abdallah is still the head of state, in Fahd's absence. There is no "cabinet" in the S.A. government. There is a Council of Ministers appointed by the head of state.
It is true that Abdallah is a reformer and I believe he still holds "sway" even there a level of nonsupport and violence as has been seen over the last year or so.
Hopefully the good guys there are still in control. Else, it will get much worse.
Not if they think we'll do it by ourselves. Europe will certainly engage us in a game of chicken: "We aren't going into Saudi Arabia... are you?" If we blink first, they'll sit back and complain to high Heaven that the Neocon Unilateralist Satanic Americans are at it again, building their evil empire, while they sit back and enjoy the stability that we provide.
In other words, they'll do exactly what they're doing in the War on Terror.
The House of Saud is beginning to crumble. The Arab world is on the verge of massive changes and this House of Saud crumbling will speed up the changes, for better or for worse.
It is true that Abdallah is a reformer and I believe that he still holds "sway" even though we've seen a level of nonsupport and violence over the last year or so.
Let's face it...oil will be $50 a barrel by September. We need to prepare by the end of this year for gas prices to hit $3 a gallon. Its simple and pure math. Ossama and his boys have finally figured this whole scheme out. If you take out the production sites in Saudi Arabia and hinder two or three other sites...you halt 50 percent of the oil movement. Trickle-down, goes into turbo...we see a national shortage within 3 weeks. This leads to airline flight cancelations and massive increase on food costs by the truckers moving food around the US. The entire economy in the US can be wrecked inside of one year if the house of Saud falls and oil problems occur. We should have realized this situation 10 years ago and lined up Sibera then. Russia is capable of taking over all of the Saudi business...and we don't have to worry about Muslims. GW needs to get smart on this issue.
Persoanally, I think the great majority of the problems over there are within the family itself.
Or, more likely, go to war with each other over them. The French will move first to grab a part of the fields. Before they can take them all, the Russians will muscle in to another area. This will alarm the Brits (and us) greatly.
WW III anyone?
Even though I refer to Abdallah as a good guy, I only mean he is relative others in S.A..
What's bad about Abdallah is that he scapegoats Isreal every chance that he gets. Also, he's a dictator of sorts.
That said, he helped us immensely with Iraq and I believe that he is fighting Al Qaeda as best that he can.
I believe that once al Qaeda is removed from S.A. then the incentive for any of the royals to fund the madrassas will have been removed and the S.A. royals can go back to being a more stable ally, as they were pre al Qaeda -- circa 1980 and before.
JMO.
I wonder how many folks who opine on Saudi Arabia have read its history, such as David Holden and Richard Johns's book, "The House of Saud"? Its pretty clear the devil's bargain that Ibn Saud made to create Saudi Arabia is the source of our present day troubles.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.