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VANGUARD: It's the Economy, Stupid
Vanguard of the Revolution ^ | 1 June 2004 | Rod D. Martin

Posted on 06/02/2004 6:25:32 AM PDT by AFPhys

As the media continues its “if it bleeds it leads” bias on Iraq – despite tremendous positive news from that front – and the President’s poll numbers reflect that, it’s hard for many conservatives to remember that iron law of politics given us twelve years ago by James Carville:

It’s the economy, stupid.

One reason it’s easy to forget this wise counsel right now is that the public’s perception of the economy is much worse than the reality. Indeed, that was the case in 1992 as well, when Bill Clinton got away with the most ludicrous of lies, that we were living in “the worst economy since the Great Depression” during a period of surging economic growth coming out of the brief 1990-1991 recession; and George W. Bush would do well to learn the lesson.

But the facts on the ground are much, much better than in 1992. And despite the Alphabet Media’s best efforts, it’s going to get harder and harder to conceal that fact as the year progresses.

Some statistics are in order. Despite ongoing left wing claims of a “jobless recovery”, 1.1 million jobs have been created just since August. Indeed, according to today’s much-anticipated Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, employment is now at its highest level since April 1973.

This is just one of the dramatic effects of the President’s supply-side tax cut enacted last year. Since the tax cut, real economic growth has exceeded 5% – it hit an eye-popping 7.2% this May – with only 1.6% inflation. The homeownership rate now stands at an enormous 68.6%, while total household net worth is $44.4 trillion, the highest level ever. Spendable income has increased 4.9%, consumer spending is up 4.3%, business spending on equipment and software is up 12.5% and (perhaps most important for continued job growth) business profits are up an impressive 37%, after adjusting for depreciation and capital consumption. And all of this is in spite of the rise in the price of oil, itself in part a consequence of Democrats’s refusal to pass the President’s energy bill.

These are just some of the reasons the Conference Board states that 2004 will be our best year economically in 20 years.

The major stock indices are up roughly 40% over a year ago, and though in a mild correction currently, look increasingly strong through the end of the year. And while the NASDAQ has not regained its high from the Clintonian period Alan Greenspan once termed “irrationally exuberant,” some other comparisons to the Clinton era might surprise you.

Under Clinton, the family poverty rate averaged 10.5%; under President Bush, it has averaged 9.4%.

During Clinton's first three years in office, inflation fell from 3.3% to 2.75%; in Bush's first three years, it's fallen from 3.75% to under 2%.

And crucially, two years before Bush's tax cuts – during Clinton's tenure – our private-sector GDP growth rate was 2.5%. Once again, by the first year after the Bush tax cut, it was 5.3% annualized, 7.2% in May 2004.

All of this equates to yet another validation of the power of supply-side tax cuts as the engine of growth in an over-taxed economy. Learning well the lessons taught by John F. Kennedy in the 1960s and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, George W. Bush slashed the punitive federal tax bite on investment by nearly 50% last year, as well as federal income taxes across all income levels by 7%. Small businesses – Mom and Pop – were the chief beneficiaries, just as they are the chief victims of tax hikes like those proposed by John Kerry.

As President, the junior senator from Massachusetts would quickly kill this growing boom, with tax policies born of class warfare ideology which completely ignores this truth. In the Wonderland world of the labor union-bound left, the only jobs that count are those held by AFL-CIO members in giant Rust Belt steel mills. The truth is far different: 80% of all American jobs are in the realm of small business, the sole proprietorships and partnerships that, because they aren’t giant corporations owned by millions of shareholders, make their owners look “rich” to Democrats when in fact they’re just getting by. At the margin, the incentive power of tax cuts is the principle driver of these business’s growth, because they frequently make the difference between an expansion or a contraction for a small business which, to it, is truly enormous. If you have two employees and have to lay one off, that’s 50%. Mr. Kerry doesn’t understand this at all.

Fortunately, George W. Bush understands it perfectly, and his understanding has given us the best economy in 20 years. Will these numbers get through – despite the media – in time for the election? Yeah, probably so. And when they do, get ready for John Kerry to join Michael Dukakis and Teddy Kennedy in yet another long Massachusetts oblivion.




Rod D. Martin is Founder and Chairman of Vanguard PAC. A former policy director to Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Special Counsel to PayPal.com Founder Peter Thiel, he is a member of the Board of Governors of the Council for National Policy, a Vice President of the National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA), and author of the forthcoming Visions of America.


© 1997-2004 , Rod D. Martin and Vanguard PAC.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bush2004; economy2004; election2004; rodmartin; supplysidetaxcuts
Since the tax cut, real economic growth has exceeded 5% ­ it hit an eye-popping 7.2% this May ­ with only 1.6% inflation. The homeownership rate now stands at an enormous 68.6%, while total household net worth is $44.4 trillion, the highest level ever. Spendable income has increased 4.9%, consumer spending is up 4.3%, business spending on equipment and software is up 12.5% and (perhaps most important for continued job growth) business profits are up an impressive 37%, after adjusting for depreciation and capital consumption.

Pretty numbers to me ... but I'm just a rube.

1 posted on 06/02/2004 6:25:32 AM PDT by AFPhys
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To: Howlin; Ragtime Cowgirl; DollyCali; Congressman Billybob; Peach; GretchenM; LoudRepublicangirl; ...
Since the tax cut, real economic growth has exceeded 5% ­ it hit an eye-popping 7.2% this May ­ with only 1.6% inflation. The homeownership rate now stands at an enormous 68.6%, while total household net worth is $44.4 trillion, the highest level ever. Spendable income has increased 4.9%, consumer spending is up 4.3%, business spending on equipment and software is up 12.5% and (perhaps most important for continued job growth) business profits are up an impressive 37%, after adjusting for depreciation and capital consumption.

Pretty numbers to me ... but I'm just a rube.

2 posted on 06/02/2004 6:28:48 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

Ludicrous Lies are the fuel that keeps the Democratic Engine running.


3 posted on 06/02/2004 6:33:37 AM PDT by sgtbono2002 (I aint wrong, I aint sorry , and I am probably going to do it again.)
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To: AFPhys
"These are just some of the reasons the Conference Board states that 2004 will be our best year economically in 20 years."

"80% of all American jobs are in the realm of small business, the sole proprietorships and partnerships that, because they aren’t giant corporations owned by millions of shareholders, make their owners look “rich” to Democrats when in fact they’re just getting by."

4 posted on 06/02/2004 6:46:47 AM PDT by Penner
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To: AFPhys; sgtbono2002
What complicates the issue is most Democrat voters don't do news, don't read the front page, don't listen to news radio or TV news broadcasts.

Most Dem voters never hear the leftist crap the media feeds us, they simply vote Democrat because they get the impression the party is for lazy people who need everything handed to them.

The media must be aware of this and perhaps rely on word of mouth? Or are they simply satisfied in just pissing off Conservatives, people with initiative who are capable of calling their bluff? Or is the collective slime-media an arm of Socialist Democrats? Are they as sloth-like as their preferred constituents?

It's a morass.

5 posted on 06/02/2004 6:46:49 AM PDT by Lady Jag (Was sciencediet till I found the solution)
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To: Mr. Jeeves
Well, that's my eye exam for the day...

Sorry about the earlier post...

I missed the "Preview" button, and the formatting marks didn't translate.

This one will be a tad easier to read, lol...

6 posted on 06/02/2004 6:47:59 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Lady Jag

To my frank, I believe the news now does not matter much at all. Really, it is only the few (10%) of us now who are pay ing attention to things at all in the world. Even fewer actually seek out the real news.

That will change after Labor Day. If the course continues as it is now in Iraq, the economy, the WoT, and moral/social issue-wise, the American people will choose President Bush in a huge landslide. Honestly, very few people have any true idea now. When they start really thinking about the issues, and look at the candidates they might ask to take the reins of this country for 2005-2008, they will find a major difference, and there are very few who will choose a Kerry liberal for president.

For now, the Old Media is able to get their leftist take in the air, and few are scrutinizing that. The Fraudcasters and Demodogs will have much less effectiveness come September and October. I believe that even if we experience a terrorist attack then that the people will rise up in even greater numbers to attack the Demodogs.

In addition, there will be no denying the economy is BOOMing by then (if all stays as it appears it will now).


7 posted on 06/02/2004 7:00:50 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys
I still wonder why the media keeps it up when we have a perfectly good GOP administration, like the dog that bites the hand that feeds it...except perhaps that we tend to be more genteel than they and their Democrapist party.
8 posted on 06/02/2004 8:01:42 AM PDT by Lady Jag (Was sciencediet till I found the solution)
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To: sgtbono2002
Ludicrous Lies are the fuel that keeps the Democratic Engine running.

Who can blame them, given the ignorance and apathy in the self-serving electorate?

9 posted on 06/02/2004 8:08:55 AM PDT by newgeezer (...until the voters discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.)
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To: AFPhys
Gotta love it !!

Fortunately, George W. Bush understands it perfectly, and his understanding has given us the best economy in 20 years. Will these numbers get through – despite the media – in time for the election? Yeah, probably so. And when they do, get ready for John Kerry to join Michael Dukakis and Teddy Kennedy in yet another long Massachusetts oblivion.





Hear the Donkey Bray
(RealPlayer)



10 posted on 06/02/2004 12:02:48 PM PDT by MeekOneGOP (There is ONLY ONE good Democrat: one that has just been voted OUT of POWER ! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: AFPhys

[Expletive deleted] !!!


11 posted on 06/02/2004 12:03:42 PM PDT by MeekOneGOP (There is ONLY ONE good Democrat: one that has just been voted OUT of POWER ! Straight ticket GOP!)
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