"Welcome to World War IV "

Center for Security Policy ^ | 06/01/04 | unknown

[redrock]

Decision Brief No. 04-D 25 2004-06-01

"Welcome to World War IV "

(Washington, D.C.): Suddenly, the heretofore unthinkable seems not so impossible. Domestic political considerations driven by declining polls and negative reporting have prompted the Bush administration to take a series of dubious tactical decisions in Iraq. These have, in turn, contributed to a worsening situation on the ground there, featuring continuing physical insecurity, political turmoil and demoralization of U.S. forces. Amplified by relentlessly unfavorable press accounts and increasingly shrill Democratic criticism, these developments have given rise to still more dubious tactical decisions, an emboldened opposition on the ground and more bad news to report.

This dynamic has produced in the midst of this election year a sense in some quarters that an early U.S. exit may not only be inevitable but desirable. After all, a growing number of Americans seem to be under the illusion that, as with Vietnam, we can end the war simply by bailing out of Iraq. If only fences are mended with the United Nations, they have been encouraged to believe, the world will once again leave us alone. At the very least, we could then go back to fighting international terror as more or less a police action.

Not So Fast

Three developments of the past few days, however, make clear that we live in a very different sort of world - one that will become infinitely more dangerous for the United States if it is perceived to have "lost" Iraq:

Last week’s murder and hostage-taking of indigenous and foreign workers in Saudi Arabia’s oil sector was a strategic attack not only on the Kingdom but on the world economy. It underscores the fragility of what is currently the only rapidly expandable source of the crude which if taken off-line would precipitate an immediate end to any recovery, and probably serious and lasting economic dislocation. Even before this attack, perceptions that disruptions may be in the offing at the hands of al Qaeda or other terrorists - possibly involving the destruction of key parts of the Saudi fields’ infrastructure - had contributed to soaring prices on the spot market and at gas pumps.

The other main driver in petroleum-related price hikes of late is the emergence on world oil markets of growing demand from China. Most analysts believe that the only way Beijing can maintain the sorts of economic growth and rising living standards essential to the Communist Party’s continued hold on power is for vastly greater imports of energy from the international oil patch. In the absence of massive new finds of oil, technological or other impetuses for reduced U.S. and Western demand, the Chinese competition will not only further increase the cost of a barrel of oil. It may also contribute to the sort of mentality that political scientists call a "zero-sum" game - where one side can only benefit at the other’s expense, a mindset that, when it comes to vital and scarce natural resources, frequently leads to conflict and war.

Unfortunately, the Associated Press reported on May 30 that a new Defense Department report perceives an ominous Chinese interest in waging war swiftly and decisively against the United States. For some years, party and military leaders have used a term that translates into English roughly as "Assassin’s Mace." The wire service quotes the Pentagon analysis as saying this "concept appears to include a range of weapon systems and technologies related to information warfare, ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles, advanced fighters and submarines, counterspace system and air defense." There is reason to fear that the Chinese believe some such capabilities could be successfully employed, possibly in the relatively near-term, with little warning while the U.S. is tied down elsewhere to attack Taiwan and assert Chinese hegemony in East Asia.

One of the things that could tie the United States down considerably would be the emergence of a terrorist Fifth Column here at home. As columnist Michelle Malkin has noted, a new study performed at the request of Senators Jon Kyl, Republican of Arizona, and Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, by the Department of Justice’s Inspector General has confirmed earlier, frightening press reports: U.S. and state prison systems have been penetrated for years by proselytizers for the radical subset of the Muslim faith known as Islamism - notably, the virulently intolerant, jihadist strain associated with Saudi Arabia’s state-sanctioned Wahhabi cult. Incredibly, neither their interactions with prisoners nor even those of incarcerated Islamist terrorists have been adequately supervised out of what the I.G. deemed to be misplaced concern about "privacy rights" and "religious freedom." Worse still, released felons are but one source, if a particularly dangerous one, for attacks in this country by al Qaeda sympathizers that have been cultivated over the past three decades by institutions tied to Saudi Arabia.

The Bottom Line

Taken together, these developments confirm that a withdrawal from and loss of Iraq will hardly be the end of our travails. If anything, the attendant perception of diminished U.S. power and loss of will would exacerbate the threats we face in the years ahead from terrorists, their state sponsors and others who would exploit the damage that might be inflicted by America’s enemies on the West’s oil supply, in East Asia and here at home.

These dangers will not be eliminated by success in Iraq, but they will be made more manageable as Iraqi oil comes on line, U.S. forces are freed up for duty elsewhere and Islamism is dealt a strategic defeat. This is, as Margaret Thatcher famously put it, "no time to go wobbly."

[TheLion]

"Suddenly, the heretofore unthinkable seems not so impossible. Domestic political considerations driven by declining polls and negative reporting have prompted the Bush administration to take a series of dubious tactical decisions in Iraq. These have, in turn, contributed to a worsening situation on the ground there, featuring continuing physical insecurity, political turmoil and demoralization of U.S. forces. Amplified by relentlessly unfavorable press accounts and increasingly shrill Democratic criticism, these developments have given rise to still more dubious tactical decisions, an emboldened opposition on the ground and more bad news to report."

Exactly what the liberal media wants everyone to think!

Even many liberals I have talked to recently are very aware of our problem. I think it will get worked out....and they know it needs to be done by Bush.

[Victoria Delsoul]

Taken together, these developments confirm that a withdrawal from and loss of Iraq will hardly be the end of our travails. If anything, the attendant perception of diminished U.S. power and loss of will would exacerbate the threats we face in the years ahead from terrorists, their state sponsors and others who would exploit the damage that might be inflicted by America’s enemies on the West’s oil supply, in East Asia and here at home.

Agreed.

[nunya bidness]

Last week’s murder and hostage-taking of indigenous and foreign workers in Saudi Arabia’s oil sector was a strategic attack not only on the Kingdom but on the world economy.

It's been obvious to me for some time that UBL always wanted to ascend to the crown of the House of Saud. In other words, a cheap power grab, not some high-minded jihad in the name of Islam.

Zaqarwi (sic) split from him recently and made himself the main man in Iraq (right after cutting Nick Berg's head off). Naturally, things had to heat up in SA. After all, UBL said that he wanted our troops out and boom, we're gone.

We're walking him/them like a dog.

[txhurl]

Wow. So where is Zarqawi? Fallujah?

Do you really think we almost coulda had him at the Pak/Afghan border a couple months ago? I wonder.

[SAMWolf]

One of the things that could tie the United States down considerably would be the emergence of a terrorist Fifth Column here at home.

Too late, moveon.org, Hollywood and the DNC are already here.

[nunya bidness]

Wow. So where is Zarqawi? Fallujah?

Do you really think we almost coulda had him at the Pak/Afghan border a couple months ago? I wonder.

If the Nick Berg video is corroborated then Zarqawi is in Iraq and defiantly so.

I'm sure we've been close to the whole bunch of them but if they're getting short of soldiers they've got to recruit more. Hence, the video.

Walking the dog.

[DLfromthedesert]

I don't believe our President is going wobbly.

[Travis McGee]

Unfortunately, the Associated Press reported on May 30 that a new Defense Department report perceives an ominous Chinese interest in waging war swiftly and decisively against the United States. For some years, party and military leaders have used a term that translates into English roughly as "Assassin’s Mace." The wire service quotes the Pentagon analysis as saying this "concept appears to include a range of weapon systems and technologies related to information warfare, ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles, advanced fighters and submarines, counterspace system and air defense." There is reason to fear that the Chinese believe some such capabilities could be successfully employed, possibly in the relatively near-term, with little warning while the U.S. is tied down elsewhere to attack Taiwan and assert Chinese hegemony in East Asia.


One of the things that could tie the United States down considerably would be the emergence of a terrorist Fifth Column here at home.

[Jeff Head]

The Chinese have believed this from the get go, and have been working towards this end economically, politically and militarily for a long time.

Their eventual onslaught could include our being bogged down in at least two other places (ie. Mid East and Korea), their own new technology weapons (ie. space based or supervacitating systems), parity or near parity in other areas (ie. SU-30, Sovremenny DDG's, Subs, Carriers), asymetrical warfare (ie. terror/sleeper cells inside America), etc.

And they have engineered the economic conditions to allow us to help fund a major part of it.

If we are not careful, it will lead to something akin to:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES
A Techno-thriller series about America and World War III

To try and give a warning of potential conditions like this as regards the PRC is the one of the principle reasons the series has been written...hoping that couched in an exciting and engrossing read, the information might get folks to thinking.

[txhurl]

So.... if OBL can't be found and Zarqawi flatlines as well... are there no more aspirers to the Saudi throne?

Does everything go back to 'normal', circa 1973?

[spodefly]

BTTT

[dr_lew]

Taken together, these developments confirm that a withdrawal from and loss of Iraq will hardly be the end of our travails.

Roe Conn, the afternoon host on WLS 890AM in Chicago, is not an ideologue by any means, but pretty much a hawk by temperament, and his observations often give satisfaction. A week or so ago, he opined that he couldn't say whether going into Iraq was the best thing to do, but that having done so we had "opened the gates of hell" ( i.e. engaged its forces ) and there was no way we could back off now.

[Travis McGee]

Getting to close for comfort.

[nunya bidness]

So.... if OBL can't be found and Zarqawi flatlines as well... are there no more aspirers to the Saudi throne?

You bet, there's a line.

Does everything go back to 'normal', circa 1973?

Interesting that you would pick that date. 1973 was the year the Brits pulled out of the ME. I don't think we'll see conditions like that for some time.

The petulant Arabian peninsula has been served notice: time to grow up. And it's about time.

[Porterville]

Man we been in WWIV since Sep 11. Ain't nothings change, resources are being organized, alliances are being formed, and institutions are being strengthened and dissolved.... 5 years we own Canada!!!

[weegee]

World War IV / Cold War II / The 21st Centure Crusades

[weegee]

I'd clock it to the 1993 WTC attack if not even before that. War had been openly declared on the US even if we waited awhile to return the volly.

The Cold War did not begin with the Korean War or the theft of the secrets to the Atomic Bomb.