Posted on 05/30/2004 2:16:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The terrorist strike in al-Khobar appears to be more ominous than recent similar strikes in Saudi Arabia. It resembles the May 1 attack on western oil workers in Yanbu, but was more elaborate and more deadly.
The attackers were organized and they seem to have prepared extensively. They wore uniforms of the Saudi National Guard, which is responsible for security at residential compounds of foreign workers, and they drove vehicles with military markings. They successfully struck multiple targets and managed to fight off security forces for a considerable period of time. They took hostages, rigged their location with explosives, and all but one gunman reportedly escaped a siege by Saudi commandos on the sixth floor of a high-rise building.
Based on a statement attributed to its planners, the primary aim was to lash out at westerners who work in the Saudi oil industry and drive them out of the Arabian Penninsula. This motivation is corroborated by the attackers' behavior. For example, this is the second recent incident in which a foreign worker's body was reportedly tied to a vehicle and dragged through the streets by militants, a tactic clearly meant to terrorize and strike fear into the hearts of foreigners living in the kingdom.
According to eyewitnesses, the attackers meticulously avoided harming Arabs and Muslims as they mistakenly had in previous attacks. This time, they questioned the residents they encountered who were not obviously westerners in order to ascertain their identity. This time, Arab nationals and even an American Muslim were spared by the discriminating attackers.
In assessing the impact on the oil market, these terrible attacks must be put into perspective. While they have succeeded in murdering westerners and terrorizing the expatriate community in Saudi Arabia, they have not (and likely will not) result in any disruption of Saudi oil exports, except for indirect delays and expenditures related to improving security for foreign workers and companies. Hopefully oil traders will take this fact into account before making panicked buying decisions when trading resumes following the long holiday weekend.
If attacks against westerners in their places of work and residence in Saudi Arabia are not enough to create a crisis, what would be?
We would have a crisis if terrorists hit the Saudi oil infrastructure as hard as they hit the World Trade Center – with the force to destroy it.
If terrorists really wanted to strike a mortal blow at the Saudi oil industry and the ruling family, they would have to disable the kingdom's ability to produce and/or export oil. A scheme like this would involve crippling attacks on the kingdom's vital oil infrastructure, such as the Abqaiq processing facility or the export terminals along the Arabian Gulf. But even if a scenario like that were to develop, at least those problems can be fixed. Pipelines and terminals can be repaired.
The very worst-case scenario would be a political crisis – a coup d’etat in Saudi Arabia in which the royal family is overthrown by anti-western militants, who would rather plunge their country into economic chaos than export oil to the West.
So far, this does not appear to be the motivation of the militants.
If recent statements by the masterminds of the Yanbu and al-Khobar attacks are authentic, the militants are concerned with protecting Saudi oil wealth from foreign infidels. If this is true, it makes sense that they would target westerners working in the Saudi oil industry, but not Saudi oil itself. If this is the motivation, the last thing the militants would do is take out Saudi Arabia’s oil fields or export terminals.
So far, the connection between western workers and the oil industry is incidental. If Americans and Britons were prominent in the Saudi food or retail industries, then those related facilities would be under attack.
Therefore, as long as the militants limit their attacks to residences and offices of westerners in the kingdom, we will have a human tragedy with limited economic impact.
On the other hand, if the militants eventually declare war on their own rulers and become willing to sacrifice their country’s natural resources to achieve their goals, we could also have a global oil shortage and geo-political crisis with profound economic consequences for the United States.
Why are outsiders required for the oil industry?
Because even after decades of educating the Saudis, they either cannot or will not do these jobs.
They are therefore dependent, to some degree.
The western workers still willing to work there, may command higher pay packages. World oil prices will be higher, making goods and services more expensive.
Absent "western expatriates" the oil industry will be less able to maintain present daily barrels of output, and throughput.
If they wanted to disrupt the industry, attack terminals and pipelines--cheaper and low tech to repair, compared to wells, refineries.
Apparently the author has forgotten the role the CIA attack on the Trans-Siberia pipeline had on bringing down the former Soviet Union.
Mansoor Ijaz said it bluntly last night - AQ wants higher prices to affect the US elections, they know that higher prices will make it more likely Kerry is elected. And prices indeed will go higher now:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1144869/posts
I hope that the majority of the American public does not fall for their plan. I know this is one American who won't. They are just pissing me off further for trying to jerk with our election process.
Without the "westerners" there won't be oil for long.
They wore uniforms of the Saudi National Guard
Who is to say they weren't active members of the Guard? Who is to say that elements of the Saudi military aren't actively supporting Al Qaeda, when it can be demonstrated that members of the royal family, and members of the ruling clique itself are direct supporters of Al Qaeda. What we are seeing is a civil war being fought out between elements of the Saudi ruling class and Saudi civil society itself.
Looks that way.
BUMP!!!
They're not hitting Westerners, they're hitting non-Muslims. This is a religious war and not a political one. (That's one reason why political solutions won't work.)
I agree with several posters who have noted that without western expertise oil production will eventually plummet. Simply put, the Saudis need our engineers and techcicians to maintain these facilities, they simply don't have the technical expertise. I attended engineering school with quite a few students from the ME, overall they do not inspire confidence.
If Saudi Arabia didn't need our expertise we would have been out of the Arabian Pennisula long ago. Our being there has long been a contentious issue. If we were to pull out completely oil production from the Arabian Pennisula probably wouldn't drop overnight, but long term the impact would be dramatic.
Not very PC, but I like it!
It's disguised as a Religious War.
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