Posted on 05/29/2004 11:22:56 AM PDT by dusty99999
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
VALID 291653Z - 300100Z
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA
THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.
AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
I'm guessing that with conditions like today over that region, the big supercells won't have formed for another couple of hours. Then watch out.
Of course, I'm not a meteorologist. I'm just typing this in my room in a Holiday Inn Express.
I'm just typing this in my room in a Holiday Inn Express.hehe !
As soon as I got Howlin's ping, I went to The Dallas Morning News and they had NOTHING about this.
I'll check again and see if they do now .....
Storms now rapidly developing over the TX panhandle on the Ok border..also cumulus field forming along the dry line from that up to nebraska..here we go folks
According to your map, we're in a tornado watch and KS is in a high wind advisory.. yet, the map on #10 says a larger amount of ks and missouri is in a high risk of tornadoes...
Nuttin' yet .....Found this, though, for all of us allergy folks:
Pollen Count
Cottonwood: 31 Mod
Grass: 22 High
Total: 1510
Things will get going soon..Tornado watches will be issued from that watch south to Texas soon..some will be rare PDS watches
lol
Nope, eastern Colorado is seeing some pretty rough weather, but not the kind of stuff we're really concerned about yet.
Don't worry. Nothing but a good old-fashioned earthquake will rattle your town:)
The news last night said to expect a chance for another round of bad weather tonight.. So I guess I'll start preparing. I don't understand this weird weather change between this year and last year. It's put many of us on edge so to speak.
Some of the indices out there are incredible.
Still no buildingn clouds to the west, but there is a haze that seems to happen on bad severe weather days.
Thanks, but we have no complaints. Compared to some of the others here, we have just a big clean-up job. Just constantly looking at cloud formations now... Don't know when that ends?
A_R
The severe weather indices (model stats) are really, really, really bad.
Of course, there is a strong cap, and the storms will have to break through that.
They will...new tornado watch out for IA KS MO NE ..looks like a PDS
It is due to the weather service software automatically doing that.
Where is he at in KS? I am in the central part of the state.
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