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Large Tornado outbreak within the next few hours SD, MN,IA, NE, KS, OK, North TX

Posted on 05/29/2004 11:22:56 AM PDT by dusty99999

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

VALID 291653Z - 300100Z

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.


TOPICS: US: Iowa; US: Kansas; US: Missouri; US: Nebraska; US: Oklahoma; US: South Dakota; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: tornado; weather
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To: MeekOneGOP
Looks like they posted a watch since I last visited that page.

I'm guessing that with conditions like today over that region, the big supercells won't have formed for another couple of hours. Then watch out.

Of course, I'm not a meteorologist. I'm just typing this in my room in a Holiday Inn Express.

61 posted on 05/29/2004 12:43:36 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: dusty99999
You can watch the action in near real time here.
 
It is the goes e satellite link.

62 posted on 05/29/2004 12:44:03 PM PDT by Lokibob (All typos and spelling errors are mine and copyrighted!!!!)
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To: Dog Gone
I'm just typing this in my room in a Holiday Inn Express.

hehe !

As soon as I got Howlin's ping, I went to The Dallas Morning News and they had NOTHING about this.

I'll check again and see if they do now .....


63 posted on 05/29/2004 12:47:12 PM PDT by MeekOneGOP (There is ONLY ONE good Democrat: one that has just been voted OUT of POWER ! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: Dog Gone
Doesnt' look too bad ... yet.


64 posted on 05/29/2004 12:48:42 PM PDT by El Gato (Federal Judges can twist the Constitution into anything.. Or so they think.)
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To: Lokibob

Storms now rapidly developing over the TX panhandle on the Ok border..also cumulus field forming along the dry line from that up to nebraska..here we go folks


65 posted on 05/29/2004 12:49:01 PM PDT by dusty99999
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To: MeekOneGOP

According to your map, we're in a tornado watch and KS is in a high wind advisory.. yet, the map on #10 says a larger amount of ks and missouri is in a high risk of tornadoes...


66 posted on 05/29/2004 12:49:16 PM PDT by Freedom2specul8 (Please pray for our troops.... http://anyservicemember.navy.mil/)
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To: Dog Gone
Nuttin' yet .....

Found this, though, for all of us allergy folks:

Pollen Count
Fungus: 1457 Mod
Cottonwood: 31 Mod
Grass: 22 High
Total: 1510

67 posted on 05/29/2004 12:49:50 PM PDT by MeekOneGOP (There is ONLY ONE good Democrat: one that has just been voted OUT of POWER ! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: ~Kim4VRWC's~
Presumably you get to go first. Anything more than a "slight" risk indicates a significant/severe outbreak. "High" risk days are very rare.

It's going to get bad later in the afternoon/evening.
68 posted on 05/29/2004 12:51:59 PM PDT by dufekin (John F. Kerry. Irrational, improvident, backward, seditious.)
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To: ~Kim4VRWC's~

Things will get going soon..Tornado watches will be issued from that watch south to Texas soon..some will be rare PDS watches


69 posted on 05/29/2004 12:52:25 PM PDT by dusty99999
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To: MeekOneGOP

lol


70 posted on 05/29/2004 12:52:42 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: El Gato

Nope, eastern Colorado is seeing some pretty rough weather, but not the kind of stuff we're really concerned about yet.


71 posted on 05/29/2004 12:54:10 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: montomike
"I'm just gonna freak when they forecast a tornado in Hollywood."

Don't worry. Nothing but a good old-fashioned earthquake will rattle your town:)

72 posted on 05/29/2004 12:55:36 PM PDT by BobS
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To: dusty99999; dufekin

The news last night said to expect a chance for another round of bad weather tonight.. So I guess I'll start preparing. I don't understand this weird weather change between this year and last year. It's put many of us on edge so to speak.


73 posted on 05/29/2004 12:56:36 PM PDT by Freedom2specul8 (Please pray for our troops.... http://anyservicemember.navy.mil/)
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To: dusty99999

Some of the indices out there are incredible.

Still no buildingn clouds to the west, but there is a haze that seems to happen on bad severe weather days.


74 posted on 05/29/2004 12:57:01 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" -- Abraham Lincoln)
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To: ~Kim4VRWC's~
I am very sorry to hear about your house... :(

Thanks, but we have no complaints. Compared to some of the others here, we have just a big clean-up job. Just constantly looking at cloud formations now... Don't know when that ends?

A_R

75 posted on 05/29/2004 12:57:25 PM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: okkev68

The severe weather indices (model stats) are really, really, really bad.

Of course, there is a strong cap, and the storms will have to break through that.


76 posted on 05/29/2004 12:57:55 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" -- Abraham Lincoln)
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To: rwfromkansas

They will...new tornado watch out for IA KS MO NE ..looks like a PDS


77 posted on 05/29/2004 12:59:31 PM PDT by dusty99999
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To: DallasMike

It is due to the weather service software automatically doing that.


78 posted on 05/29/2004 12:59:46 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" -- Abraham Lincoln)
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To: dusty99999

Where is he at in KS? I am in the central part of the state.


79 posted on 05/29/2004 1:00:43 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" -- Abraham Lincoln)
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To: dusty99999
I see some dry-line convection developing soon near Altus (southwestern) Oklahoma.
80 posted on 05/29/2004 1:01:22 PM PDT by dufekin (John F. Kerry. Irrational, improvident, backward, seditious.)
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