Posted on 05/28/2004 9:03:44 PM PDT by FairOpinion
It is likely that an attack would be intended to kill thousands, though an attack remains conjecture at this point, based on intelligence gathered by our agencies and other nations.
Headlines tell us of government predictions that al Qaeda may intend to mount an attack on the US this summer. Soldiers in Iraq recently found an explosive in Iraq filled with Sarin, a deadly chemical capable of killing many people. The widely expressed doubt that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction should end.
In a recent Washington Times column by John McCaslin, he cited a poll by the National Association of Chiefs of Police, “Because of the ‘current political polarization’ in America today, the United States will suffer another ‘large scale’ terrorist attack within the next year."
McCaslin reported the poll revealed, “that 95 percent of the nation's police commanders and security directors expect a ‘catastrophic’ terrorist incident within the continental United States. "If Americans believe we're not being targeted for terror in the near future, they are fooling themselves," says NACP Vice President Jim Kouri, who predicts the killers, among other dastardly missions, will be attempting to influence this November's presidential election. It worked for them in Spain.”
It is the opinion of many counter-terrorism experts that al Qaeda will attack America again and many believe it will come before the elections in November. Their thinking is that the success it had in Spain can be repeated here and their aim is to elect Senator John F. Kerry. The objective will be to demoralize the resolve of Americans to support the occupation of Iraq until it can establish a democratic form of government.
It is likely that an attack would be intended to kill thousands, though an attack remains conjecture at this point, based on intelligence gathered by our agencies and other nations.
Here are some targets al Qaeda might have in mind.
If Al Qaeda wants to kill a lot of people to ratchet up our level of terror, New York remains a prime target and there are recent reports of empty suitcases showing up in its subways and other locations as a possible test run on the delivery of a WMD.
What other city would be a likely target? One answer is Los Angeles and, in particular, Hollywood. Radical Muslims regard the films and television shows coming out of Hollywood as a direct attack on their sense of moral superiority. A dirty bomb or bioterror in Los Angeles would have the desired effect. Remember, too, that a terrorist was caught in the run-up to Y2K when he crossed the border from Canada with a car full of explosives. His target, we were told, was the LA Airport.
Recently, Jordanians thwarted a plot to attack the US embassy and other targets there with poison gas. The estimated casualties are estimated to have been as many as 20,000. A similar target in the US would reap a similar result. Again, the belief that Iraq did not have WMDs should be put to rest. The belief that it was not cooperating with al Qaeda should have been dispelled by now. Supporters of the deposed Saddam Hussein are continuing their insurgency against our troops and would surely want to strike at the American homeland.
If I were Osama bin Laden, a trained engineer, what might be another likely target in America? One answer is oil refineries. There hasn’t been a new refinery built in the US since the 1970s and the ones we have are strained to capacity. When even one is closed down for routine maintenance, the price of gas spikes. Imagine if two, maybe three, were destroyed? The highways would empty out, followed by the office buildings and just about every other enterprise that depends on workers who drive to work. That includes schools, hospitals; just about everything, everywhere. America would have to declare martial law.
Another likely target would be the disruption of the aging electrical grid that distributes this vital source of energy around the nation. Remember when the grid failed a year or so ago? It shut down the entire East Coast from Ohio to New York. Destroy key components of the grid and people will be cooking dinner over an open fire in the backyard.
The plane that crashed in Pennsylvania on 9-11 had a destination about which we can only speculate. But let’s say it was the Capitol Building and a direct hit could take out a major number of Senators and Representatives? Our Constitution does not make provision for the killing of enough members of Congress to render it unable to function. Congress, however, is debating legislation that would allow for emergency elections in the event that should occur.
While America remains a target, so are Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, England and just about every other nation around the world. We are dealing with people willing to kill anybody for their crazed notion of protecting a failed way of life, a belief that Islam must dominate the world and be practiced in a fashion Osama bin Laden dictates.
It should never be forgotten that bin Laden has already issued a fatwa, an Islamic edict, calling for the deaths of all Americans.
As our level of anxiety rises, al Qaeda has already achieved one of its objectives. The question, if an attack occurs, is whether Americans will deepen their resolve to destroy its enemies or seek to withdraw from the fight?
Alan Caruba is the author of Warning Signs, published by Merril Press. His weekly commentaries are posted on the Internet site of The National Anxiety Center.
I am afraid your target list is a very realistic list.
Al Qaeda doesn't just want to kill people, they want to destroy our economy and those targets would definitely put a serious dent into our economy.
I hope the US government thinks along those same lines and implementing all the safety measures possible.
The hardcore Al Quaeda don't care what political stripe an American carries...it's the "American" part they hate. As far as Hollywood goes, with all its faults, it DOES represent our culture to much of the world, especially to that part that despises it most. The Terrs would likewise relish the chance to kill so many of the most "immoral" people on the planet.
They're heavily into symbolism. They attacked America with it. The WTC, the symbol (to them) of our economic prowess and domination. The Pentagon, symbol of our indomitable military. We know that the fourth jet was targeted on either the White House or the Capitol...in either case, the symbol of our government. I recall hearing about a year ago that there were actually TEN targets that day; could one have been the symbol (again, to THEM) of our culture, which we export to the world through movies?
I would not be surprised at all to see Hollywood attacked for other reasons as well...compared to the East Coast now, it is a relatively "soft" target, unscathed by 9-11 and thus not as wary as the East. Plus, Hollywood's "stars" have a bad habit of gathering together in large groups a couple of (well-known) times per year.
In any event, Leftist or not, they are still Americans, and the attack and massacre of them for that reason alone would enrage me as much as that on New York City, which probably killed quite a few liberals, too. Nonetheless, that day, they all became my Brothers.
I have another theory of where an attack might occur.
Few places are as unguarded, unaware, unarmed, and as overall vulnerable to terrorist attack as shopping malls.
Also, one place to hit that would surely instill fear and terror in the hearts of average Americans is a place THEY congregate. Like a mall on a weekend.
How hard would it be to send a team in with grenades and submachine guns, leaving some at the entryways to kill those who try to escape? They could kill thousands before being stopped; indeed, the stampede would kill just as many. They'd get maximum shock effect, and horror would ensue once a few grenades are tossed into the K-B toystore and food court on Saturday.
This Summer, if I am in a mall, I plan to be well-armed and alert.
There is no need. The Congress has already authorized the President to make that war -- against the terrorists and states that harbor them. Legally, the 9/11 resolution carried the force of a declaration of war. No further legislative action is necessary.
Though a little bi-partisan support for the war effort would certainly be welcome...
My guess is October 11th, Florida.
Florida has Bush's brother as Governor (a little personal payback).
Florida decided the last Presidential election.
Less than a one percent shift in the vote due a terrorist attack could turn the state for Kerry. If Bush loses Florida so likely goes the national election. So Florida could be easily considered the weak link.
al Qaeda's calling card these days is attacking on the 11th of the month. October 11th is as close as they can come to the November 2nd election and hold true to the 11th.
Oddly, no. Recall that refineries and synthetic fuel plants were primary targets of the Allied bombers in WW II.
Even after being carpet-bombed, these facilities were often back on line within days.
October is a possibility.
Some suggested 6/11, since we had 9/11 and 3/11.
Good point. 9/11 was only 3 years ago, not 50. How can people become so gullible by the likes of Kerry so soon after an attack on U.S. soil?
Most of those targets require trained attackers and demolition materials, precise target information etc. They are all possible, but getting trained attackers, target information and equipment together before D-day increases the odds of mission compromise.
Not saying they won't happen, they probably will at some point.
But two missions come to my mind.
/1/ Anthrax: the full broadside. The 2001 anthrax attack was only shot across our bow with 3 grams of weapons grade anthrax. Supposedly Saddam had tons of this stuff. 30 kilos of anthrax would be 10,000 times as much as the amount which caused the panic in 2001. 30 kilos, mailed via USPS, UPS and FedEx in 100s of leaky packages on one day, would shut down our economy.
/2/ Mega forest fires. This requires only a few drivers with a few hundred road flares or other fire sources. Ten drivers could fan out across the western forests on a single day this summer and lead to a holocaust. These fires could be orders of magnitude greater than last summer's SoCal fires, and would totally overwhelm our ability to fight them. Entire towns would be wiped out, with populations cut off and trapped and burned. The health consequences from the smoke and ash from mega fires burning for weeks would be disastrous.
This is what bugs me about the libs. Just as the Clintinoids distracted with sex scandals to keep us from seeing their real underhanded deeds, now they're distracting us by clogging up the airwaves with their chatter and bombast. Wish the media would turn their microscopes on the jihadists.
In truth the leaky borders don't matter that much on the terrorist front.
Anyone seriously trying to enter this country could even with the military patrolling the borders.
We have vast ocean fronts and vast land borders that are impossible to completely cover.
Sailboats come and go as do thousands of cargo ships and the like. For people not short on money it would be easy to sneak in. There are endless places a person could simply walk across unnoticed.
Gasoline refineries (aircraft strikes ala WTC)
Railroad bridge strikes to cripple coal supplies to electric generation plants.
All of these cause far to few casualties to be considered a "hard" strike against the US.
As much as these kinds of targets would cause economic devastation, the effect would be too delayed to gratify the islamics. Look for something with the potential to kill 40,000+ civilians.
I don't think that the muslims understood how effective their strike against the WTC would be, but they have now set a benchmark which they must surpass. Either that or they must strike the seat of government.
A mass attack in Washington killing or disabling most of congress and a few thousand civilians, or another attack in NY.
If they really want to make a statement, an attack on a political convention would do the trick. If Kerry survived an attack on the RAT convention his candidacy woud get a real boost.
Forget wrapping them in pig skin just feed them to the pigs...Pigs will eat anything and everything fed to them.
I've thought about the malls-as-targets thing as well, but that would be a small-scary and it is obvious the terrorists want a big-scary, something that would inflict huge damage not just to human beings but to our economy, our psyche, our way of life.
BTW, you write very well. Your posts sometimes read like a good novel.
All they need are drivers and matches. Even semi-committed "slacker" jihadists can do this, even copycatting as the forests start burning.
I think that if Bin Laden believes an attack will tip the scales in favor of Kerry he is sadly mistaken. We are not Spain. We will not change presidents in the middle of a war on our soil.
Spain.
Bush significantly strengthened border security. There is no way to make the borders airtight.
They didn't have to file EPA reports and spend years in litigation for permits to build. The environmentalists are a critical part of the problem.
Small planes flying over the forests - well, you know the rest...
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