Posted on 05/24/2004 6:15:27 AM PDT by chimera
And no, this is not "wishful thinking". I want Bush to win as much as anyone here, but the numbers at this point don't look too good, at least in this area. Okay, let the flamers and spinners have at it.
Pinging FReeper Dales and other poll watchers.
Enough said!
Pray for Pres. Bush!!
adults not likely votrs
But I can tell you, living in this area, keeping my ear to the ground listening to what people around me are saying, I have to say the trends aren't too far off from what this poll seems to be indicating. Right or wrong, people are increasingly doubtful about the purpose and outcome of the Iraq situation. That and the economy (mainly seen through the prism of skyrocketing gasoline prices in the area, as well as unemployment fears) are what's dragging Bush down at this point.
Actually, to take in the big picture, it has taken the liberal media 8 1/2 months and tens of thousands of prime time news stories and front page headlines telling how awful it is in Iraq to drop his approval rating by a measley 6 points.
The numbers in Pennsylvania are much better. Bush lost PA in 2000 and won Ohio. If that were to reverse this time, he would actually gain 1 electoral vote. PA has 1 more EV than does Ohio.
If that were to happen, and all other states vote identically to 2000, Bush would win reelection by about 10 EVs, because re-apportionment from the 2000 Census moved EVs to Bush states, where people relocated since 1990.
I wonder how they would like kerry.
What makes you think a likely voters poll would show anything different?
Here, in the Ohio Valley, working people are turned off by the effort to tamper with overtime pay, the union-busting reputation of the GOP and lowered work opportunities. Unless something dramatically good happens soon, I'd say Bush will have a real hard time carrying Ohio.
They always do.
What concerns me are recent trends, both in Ohio and elsewhere. There's no sense kidding ourselves. The numbers are going against us. I've heard people say thing like "when people get to know Kerry better, they won't like him", but, as each day passes, people get to know Kerry better, and while it hasn't helped him all that much, it doesn't seem to have hurt him, either. When there is dissatisfaction with the incumbent, even if people don't like the alternative all that much, they may be inclined to vote for him simply to get out someone they don't like (for some stupid reason, like they did in '92).
Look at the numbers for "independents" in the central Ohio poll noted in the article. While the absolute numbers aren't large, the percentage numbers are eye-poppers. We're losing that voting bloc big time. If this election comes down to a battle for the "mushy middle" (as some have called it), I think we're facing a tough, uphill battle at this point, with not a lot of time left.
A couple of comments:
Saperstein is good.
Franklin County voted for Gore in 2000.
"Columbus phone exchanges" means either Franklin County or the City of Columbus, this is not Central Ohio in general or Southern Ohio. Franklin and especially Columbus are now Democratic, surburban Columbus, especially Delaware are Republican.
The Dispatch has become the NY Times of Ohio, it is 100% Bush hate all of the time. This is a signifigant thing as the Dispatch was formerly Pravda of the Ohio republican party.
The poll was conducted NYTimes style, run day after day of anti -Bush headlines then poll to see if it worked.
No, they don't. There were polls earlier this year showing Kerry leading more among LV than RV or adults.
This poll is bad news. Tinkering at the margins won't disguise that. Bush had better hope the situation turns around this summer. Time is all he has.
And your RINO Governor doesn't help.
GWB/Rove let the Dems/Libs steal the WoT and War in Iraq.
The Admin has been under constant PR attack. The dems/media blew the prison scandal out of proportion. The dems keep denying WMD, ignoring the recent mustard gas and sarin gas shells. The dems keep ignoring the Saddam-al-Qaeda connections. And the Admin is basically silent.
Brit on FNS yesterday:
Bush has a PR problem. The 'good Iraq report' Wallace did a couple of weeks ago came as a surprise to many people.
[GWB needs to a get a decent PR crew working overtime. Clinton had one to spin and stave off bad news; they even made it to the cameras/mic's before bad news made the airwaves. GWB is losing the PR war.]
I don't believe the poll and not because I am wishfully thinking but I don't believe the media has been as successful in developing the prison story outrage to the height it indicates in this story.
In addition, I am sure this is a solid member in the RATmedia second line. Nothing can be relied upon from the RATmedia. Nothing.
But I also believe we should act as though we do believe that Bush is losing.
Yeah, a poll of one city tells us how the entire county is feeling. Please...
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