That's as far as I read. Nothing but a propoganda wing for the socialists.
Posted on 05/23/2004 1:22:17 PM PDT by Aetius
After U.S. troops captured former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Gallup poll found Bush’s approval rating was over 60 percent. It is now down to 46 percent. Six months ago more than half of those surveyed were satisfied with the direction of the country; now, almost two-thirds are dissatisfied. The precipitous slide gives the Democrats improved electoral prospects this fall in the House and Senate, according to a report in the LA Times.
In the House, where 218 seats constitute a majority, there currently are 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, one independent who routinely votes with the Democrats and a vacant seat. In the Senate, there are 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent who usually sides with the Democrats.
Just a year ago Democrats doubted they could recapture either chamber – despite the relatively narrow margins.
But the continuing grim headlines from Iraq and a yet wavering confidence in the economy are not only impacting Bush but working to the detriment of Republicans in Congress -- generally.
What a Difference a Year Makes
Just a short year ago, confident GOP leaders looked to expand their narrow control of the House and Senate to establish a durable majority that would dominate national politics into the next decade.
But that was then --
“The psychology has changed from one of [achieving] a permanent victory to maintaining the status quo,” said Michael Franc, a Republican who is a vice president of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington.
Despite the opem window of opportunity, Democrats must still somehow morph the general voter discontent into key victories.
Abetting the party in the struggle for the Senate is the unexpected strength of Democratic candidates in several Bush strongholds, as well as retirements by GOP incumbents. As for the bid to take over the House, a good dose of momentum would come if they won an open seat in heavily Republican South Dakota — a potential second Democratic victory in a special House election this year.
Many Republicans are relieved that Election Day is not right around the corner, reports the Times.
“This is just the beginning of the summer,” said Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn. “But if we get to Labor Day and we have these numbers in the polls, we have a big problem.”
Part of that big problem is already here, however.
Recent polls indicate that the Democratic Party had gained an edge over the GOP when people were asked how they would vote in congressional elections.
A Time/CNN poll found that 53 percent said they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, compared with 40 percent who said they would back the Republican.
A survey for the Associated Press reported that that 50 percent wanted Democrats to win control of Congress, compared with 41 percent favoring the Republicans.
Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, said such results probably reflected weakening support for Bush rather than a solid indication of voting intentions, adding, “No president gets turned out of office without taking some of his brethren in Congress with him.”
Harbinger of Political Swing
Furthermore, some Republican strategists say such soundings of public opinion are too generic to predict the outcomes in specific House races, which often are determined by local concerns. Other GOP leaders, however, worry that if these polls are the harbinger of a political swing that lasts into the fall, House seats not now competitive will become so.
“If that really is the mood of the country … we’ll have races that turn from monkeys into gorillas,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-Va.), former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
In the meantime, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been stumping for congressional candidates -- hoping to prevent the evolution of a hostile Congress to dog the president’s second term if successful at the polls in November.
Other Factors in the Mix
In the House, new district lines drawn after the 2000 census made safe seats even safer and reduced the potentially competitive ones to a few dozen, according to the Times report. Furthermore, Texas legislators redrew House districts in the state to give Republicans the potential to gain as many as six seats there.
In the Senate, the fight also began with a disadvantage for the Democrats because they had to defend 19 seats up for election, compared with the GOP’s 16.
Adding to the grim picture, Democratic senators from the South, a region Republicans have come to claim, opted not to seek reelection.
But some breaks are cutting to the advantage of the Democrats.
Last month, Republican Rep. Jack Quinn of New York announced he would retire, opening a House seat that Democrats have a chance to win.
A Democrat won a special election in Kentucky, taking over a GOP-held seat.
In South Dakota’s looming special election, Democrat Stephanie Herseth has been leading Republican Larry Diedrich in the polls. The vote will fill the seat vacated when Republican Rep. William J. Janklow was convicted of a lesser degree of manslaughter after running a stop sign and killing a motorcyclist.
Flipping back to the other side of the coin, Democrats suffered a hit when party incumbents in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina decided to retire.
However, reports the Times, the GOP appears to have garnered a clear advantage only in Georgia.
According to battle plans, Democrats hope to gain seats in Colorado, Illinois and Oklahoma — seats opened by GOP retirements. The Democratic candidate in Illinois is favored to win there, and the party has fielded strong contenders in the other two states.
Republican stronghold Alaska is going down to the wire. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces a primary challenge from the right and. Even if she prevails, she will then face strong Democratic opposition from former governor Tony Knowles.
Dimming GOP Prospects
Taking a hard new look at the overall developments, Jennifer E. Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that in her estimation, the GOP chances of keeping control of the Senate has fallen to about 60 percent. Earlier this year, she had rated that prospect at 90 percent.
“We are in an extremely volatile environment,” said Sen. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “There has been a major failure to manage the occupation in Iraq, which opens up people’s minds to the question of whether there has been competent management on a bunch of other issues.”
“It’s an object lesson in how quickly things can change in this environment,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, “and how event-driven they are.”
Gen. Zinni wasn’t the only former military leader with doubts about the invasion of Iraq. Former General and National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, former Centcom Commander Norman Schwarzkopf, former NATO Commander Wesley Clark, and former Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki all voiced their reservations. Zinni believes this was a war the generals didn’t want – but it was a war the civilians wanted. “I can't speak for all generals, certainly. But I know we felt that this situation was contained. Saddam was effectively contained. The no-fly, no-drive zones. The sanctions that were imposed on him,” says Zinni.
Zinni...yes, the great military leader who gave us the USS Cole disaster. Not a wonder you would quote him.
More bullshit there really getting desperate.
The minor little mistake that cost the lives our U.S. sailors.
Or am I to presume that your knowledge of Zinni is about has strong as your knowledge of Churchill...not very good.
I don't know about us floundering in Louisiana, but in North Carolina there's tons of liberal wishful thinking going on there. Overrating things as usual. I'm not saying it's going to be a cake walk, but the NC picture isn't as rosy as the left thinks.
Would you please inform me of where we're floundering here in South Carolina? I guess I didn't get that memo.
Something the media is ignoring completely is the Democrat's complete divorce with family values and it effect on their Southern voter base. The Democrats are losing people right and left due to their anti values stand. They're sending voters a message that the Dems don't need them. Some are coming over to our side, but many will just stay home come the election. You'll see it's result in November. The media and Democrats will be shocked, I wont.
At the end of the day, "it's the economy, stupid." And the economy is roaring ahead now and surely for the next six months. I don't care WHAT happens in Iraq, so long as the economy continues to improve by leaps and bounds, Nov. 2 is going to be a very b-a-a-a-a-d day for Democrats across the U.S.
Democrats live to lie and lie to live- even their dreams are lies.
Their victory or defeat depends entirely upon how many dead people they take to the polls by proxy.
Bill, don't forget how Republicans are going to steal the sugar from the State if they get elected. Of course, you only hear that about two weeks before an election.
Rats Lie.
Bush did the right thing. The media has been seeing to it for months now that people think he didn't. Regardless, HE DID! You obviously are falling for the same line those who only listen to the mainstream media have. Rather surprising, actually. The lies of the left are evil.
Why don't they ask these brilliant minds if they would start then stop then start then stop a military campaign? Of course they would not.
Get the job done.
Cry about it later.
We can't leave until it is done and that is soon. Until then, CNN will hold their pictures of all the babies that Hasturt killed with his bare hands in the deserts of Iraq. What, you say Dennis would never do that. It doesn't matter, they can make the pictures say what they want.
"At the end of the day."
Please, I beg you to refrain from using that phrase-the sight of it causes me to rash.
We better not let the democrats take over Congress,....just think of all of our conservative agenda, like making government smaller, that our brave Republicans have passed,.....
HA HA HA!!!! HA!! HA!! HA!!HA!!HA!!
(I kill me sometimes!)
Well, I guess that blows the dream of some freepers for gridlock by wishing for Kerry and a GOP congress to "stand up to him".
That's as far as I read. Nothing but a propoganda wing for the socialists.
His approval ratings have continually dropped, despite things like good economic news. You tell me why this is happening. I have friends on the hill just like you and they wondering what the hell is going on. The saving grace is that Kerry is such a weak candidate. You know what, we got in the same argument 3 months ago and I said that Dubya's numbers should be better considering he is running against a guy who said he was going to raise your taxes and marry 2 guys named Bruce.
I am already working on it from my end so I can't blame myself. I'll also be in NY working at the convention. I have my bases covered.
Oh brother. [rolling eyes]
It's still the same war, General.
Forgotten? Hardly. :-) That's how I know of your history of talking down the campaign. While I applaud your involvement, I'm actually sorry to hear you'll be at the convention. The phrase "with friends like you..." comes to mind.
As to the Left/Dems going down in flames, I hope you are right. Part of me believes you may be right this year, but over the long run I can not see a bright future for the conservatives/GOP due to demographic changes. The simple fact is that unending mass legal and illegal immigration favors the Democrats, but despite most Americans wanting immigration reduced the GOP refuses to give voice to that, despite it being a potentially huge short-term vote winner, despite it being good for the country, and despite the fact that to reduce the influx would significantly slow and alter the demographic shift taking place, which would in turn give the GOP a reasonable chance to compete in the future w/o becoming a Democrat-lite party.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.