Posted on 05/21/2004 6:55:23 AM PDT by 11th Earl of Mar
'Sarin Bomb!' v The Dud Heard Round the World
by Scott Ritter from the May 21, 2004 edition
Iraq sarin shell is not part of a secret cache
By Scott Ritter
DELMAR, N.Y. v In the mid-1980s I served as the intelligence officer for a Marine artillery battalion. Stationed in Twentynine Palms, Calif., I would often find myself deployed in the field, on exercises where thousands of live artillery rounds were fired downrange.
In keeping with the Marine artillery motto of "shoot, move, communicate," we were always moving from one firing location to another to simulate modern war.
This mobility had us often passing through live-fire impact areas.
One thing you quickly learned was not to touch anything lying on the ground, because modern artillery shells had a high "dud" rate, meaning they didn't always function the way they were intended.
Tens of thousands of these "duds" were scattered across the desert terrain, not unlike those found in Iraq.
What makes this relevant now is the ongoing speculation about the source of the sarin chemical artillery shell that the US military found rigged as an improvised explosive device (IED) last week in Baghdad. If the 155-mm shell was a "dud" fired long ago - which is highly likely - then it would not be evidence of the secret stockpile of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that the Bush administration used as justification to invade Iraq.
As a United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq from 1991 to 1998, I know that the Iraq Survey Group (ISG), the US-led unit now responsible for investigating WMD in Iraq, could quite easily determine whether this shell had been fired long ago or not.
Given the trouble the administration has had in documenting its past allegations about WMD, releasing the news of last week's sarin shell without the key information about the state of the shell itself seems disingenuous.
As a former UN inspector, I'm also familiar with the level of disarmament achieved concerning Iraq's banned WMD. And during my time in Iraq, 95 percent of the WMD produced by Iraq were verifiably accounted for.
But I've always contended that Iraq is a WMD archaeological site, and that if one digs long enough, vestiges of these past WMD programs will be uncovered. Determining whether the discovery of the sarin artillery shell represents such an archaeological discovery, or is part of Saddam Hussein's alleged stockpile of WMD, rests with a full forensic exam of the shell.
The key to whether the sarin artillery round came from an arms cache or was a derelict dud rests in the physical characteristics of the shell.
The artillery shells in question were fitted with two aluminum cannisters separated by a rupture disk. The two precursor chemicals for the kind of sarin associated with this shell were stored separately in these containers.
The thrust of the shell being fired was designed to cause the liquid in the forward cannister to press back and break the rupture disk, whereupon the rotation of the shell as it headed downrange would mix the two precursors together, creating sarin.
Upon impact with the ground - or in the air, if a timed fuse was used - a burster charge would break the shell, releasing the sarin gas.
Many things go wrong when firing an artillery round: the propellent charge can be faulty, resulting in a round that doesn't reach its target; the fuse can malfunction, preventing the burster charge from going off, leaving the round intact; the rupture disk can fail to burst, keeping precursor chemicals from combining.
The fuse could break off on impact, leaving the fuse cavity empty. To the untrained eye, the artillery shell, if found in this state, would look weathered, but unfired.
What gives away whether the shell had been fired is the base-bleed charge, which unlike the rest of the shell, will show evidence of being fired (or not).
Iraq declared that it had produced 170 of these base-bleed sarin artillery shells as part of a research and development program that never led to production.
Ten of these shells were tested using inert fill - oil and colored water. Ten others were tested in simulated firing using the sarin precursors.
And 150 of these shells, filled with sarin precursors, were live-fired at an artillery range south of Baghdad. A 10 percent dud rate among artillery shells isn't unheard of - and even greater percentages can occur.
So there's a good possibility that at least 15 of these sarin artillery shells failed and lie forgotten in the Iraq desert, waiting to be picked up by any unsuspecting insurgent looking for raw material from which to construct an IED.
Given what's known about sarin shells, the US could be expected to offer a careful recital of the data with news of the shell. But facts that should have accompanied the story - the type of shell, its condition, whether it had been fired previously, and the age and viability of the sarin and precursor chemicals - were absent.
And that's opened the door to irresponsible speculation that the shell was part of a live WMD stockpile. The data - available to the ISG - would put this development in proper perspective - allowing responsible discussion of the event and its possible ramifications.
Given that the US is in the midst of a contentious presidential campaign, it's essential that accurate data about Iraq be available to the electorate.
The handling of the sarin shell incident is the greatest justification yet for shutting down the ISG, and the immediate return to Iraq of UN weapons inspectors - if for no other reason than to restore a vestige of credibility to a disarmament effort that long ago lost its moral compass.
• Scott Ritter was a UN weapons inspector in Iraq (1991-1998) and is author of 'Frontier Justice: Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Bushwhacking of America.'
__________________
Thanks.
I have a craving for a Whopper and onion rings . . .
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/795544/posts
"...But in January 1998, he learned the Federal Bureau of Investigation was investigating him for espionage with the Israelis. ''The idea of it, questioning me on the subject of patriotism!'' he said. To add to his ire, he had been told that the F.B.I. also held concerns about his wife, whom he had met in Votkinsk, where she had worked as a Soviet translator. Some in the F.B.I. thought she might be an agent, ''a hostile penetration attempt.'' He was furious..."
X + 1
Where X ='s the amount number of deadly doses found.
"By the way, what is the minimum threshold of deadly doses of Sarin before a weapon can be considered an WMD ? --5 thousand? -5 million? 5 billion? ---what's the number?"
I dunno exactly where I'd put the number but it sure as hell isn't one shell!
Look, I'm glad the war happened and that Saddam is gone. It's just also clear to me that the WMD threat at the time of war was inflated at best, non-existant at worst.
Geez! You should put a warning label on lines like that--I almost ruined my office's computer.
And 150 of these shells, filled with sarin precursors, were live-fired at an artillery range south of Baghdad. A 10 percent dud rate among artillery shells isn't unheard of - and even greater percentages can occur.
This makes absolutely no sense. If you're firing rounds to test a projectile, and some don't go off, wouldn't you dig them up to see what is wrong? Isn't that the purpose of a test program?
"Look, I'm glad the war happened and that Saddam is gone."
Okay, fair enough.
"It's just also clear to me that the WMD threat at the time of war was inflated at best, non-existant at worst."
Sounds like you're just skimming the headlines and not reading in detail.
1) This chemical round did not have a green band or any other such external indicator to clearly differentiate it from conventional rounds.
2) Given the above, consider that there are city-sized ammo dumps that will take years to inspect shell by shell since you apparently can't tell them apart by looking at them.
3) There's an awful lot of evidence suggesting Saddam set up his chemical weapons program to be disguised at least partially as dual-use tech, so that it would pass inspection but allow him to manufacture chem weapons very quickly after the inspectors leave.
4) 30 Mig jets were found buried in the sand intact outside Baghdad last summer. If you can bury 40-foot long, 15-foot tall fighter planes in the sand and have them not found by inspectors for 12 years, have you just not seriously considered the implications the discovery of these jets has for cases of chemical artillery rounds which are much smaller -- with all those thousands of square miles of remote desert sand? He buried JETS; why WOULDN'T he bury chem rounds? (Please answer that question if you expect us to continue to take you seriously.)
I am not saying that the discovery of this shell is automatic ironclad proof, but it is pretty incriminating. There is no way that any serious thinker can consider my 4 points above (there are more) and be as complacent as you sound about the chem weapon problem even BEFORE the appearance of this sarin chem round.
And now that it has appeared, anyone with half a brain, while not automatically jumping to the conclusion that there are huge stockpiles of these things, would HAVE to be at least concerned about it being a very real possibility. Yet you sound smug and complacent to the point of saying the threat could be "non-existent". Why?
The only explanation I can think of is a desperate desire to get Bush out of the White House.
Why would anyone testfire any weapon with 3 litres of sarin gas in an area just south of Baghdad? Wouldn't this pose a risk to tne inhabitants of the city? I know Saddam had little concern for his own people, but if Ritter says this was testfired in proximity to a population center it doesn't make sense.
Yes this type of shell would probably be of lighter construction than a plain high explosive. Since it's intent is to spread a gaseous mist, it may actually have a hybrid costruction where part of the shell is tougher than other parts in order to shape the pattern of dispersion. For a ground impact you would probably want a tough nose and week tail to blow the gas out the rear when the shell impacts. For an air burst, a weaker nose would probably cause greater dispersion of the gas.
You raise a few good points - ie. ammo dumps to inspect, disguised WMD programs and WMD stock being burried like Iraqi MiGs.
The problem I have with all of your points is simple. It's been over a year since Saddam's regime was toppled and half a year since the big man himself was found. The Baath party climate of fear has largely lifted and even now NO ONE has come forward to indicate where the WMD stocks are.
His top generals (many of whom have been caught) would have to have known. Hundreds, if not thousands of his troops would know as well. In all likelyhood some non-military personel would even have heard or seen something.
So how do you figure that NO ONE in a country of 25 million poeple has been able to point us to them despite the prospect of financial reward?
Could it be that the WMD stocks don't exist? Kinda looks that way.
"Why would anyone testfire any weapon with 3 litres of sarin gas in an area just south of Baghdad? Wouldn't this pose a risk to tne inhabitants of the city?"
Well....
"I know Saddam had little concern for his own people..."
Bingo!
"You raise a few good points - ie. ammo dumps to inspect, disguised WMD programs and WMD stock being burried like Iraqi MiGs.
The problem I have with all of your points is simple. It's been over a year since Saddam's regime was toppled and half a year since the big man himself was found. The Baath party climate of fear has largely lifted and even now NO ONE has come forward to indicate where the WMD stocks are.
His top generals (many of whom have been caught) would have to have known. Hundreds, if not thousands of his troops would know as well. In all likelyhood some non-military personel would even have heard or seen something.
So how do you figure that NO ONE in a country of 25 million poeple has been able to point us to them despite the prospect of financial reward?
Could it be that the WMD stocks don't exist? Kinda looks that way."
***
Ahhh, somebody on the other side who's willing to directly engage. This is refreshing to say the least.
There is only a tiny percentage of those 25 million people who would have any idea. Of these, the percentage is even tinier than you think. The Republican Guard generals (division commanders) who have been interrogated said they didn't have these weapons in their arsenal but they were sure at the time that other units did.
This means that even at very high military command levels, this info was not known. Saddam was keeping all but a very few in the dark.
That narrows down the number of people who might know considerably. And of this still smaller group, Saddam may have had those who knew the whereabouts of these weapons killed after they buried them in the desert or after coming back from transporting them to Syria so they couldn't talk. Dictators have been known to do that sort of thing.
But the fact is this shell has appeared and there's evidence that it was made within the last 7 or 8 years. Where did it come from?
If Ritter opened his pie hole, it is the big fart heard around the world, causing massive world pollution.
The article's link doesn't seem to be working.
You 'ropma' link doesn't work.
For years, many of us heard "we know he had them"--but failed to ask the crucial question: WHEN?
My guess is that they were indeed destroyed in the nineties, but the slime Saddam certainly didn't want too many people to know that.
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