Republican closes gap in the S.D. House race (Herseth 47% Diedrich 44% )

thehill.com ^ | 05/18/04 | Peter Savodnik

[KQQL]

Republican Larry Diedrich is running neck and neck with Stephanie Herseth, his Democratic rival in South Dakota’s upcoming special House election, an independent poll to be released tonight shows.

The poll gives Herseth 47 percent, compared to Diedrich’s 44 percent, marking a huge gain for the Republican. Earlier this year, Diedrich trailed Herseth by nearly 30 points.

The three-point spread falls within the survey’s four-point margin of error.

The poll was conducted by television station KELO, an ABC affiliate, in Sioux Falls. Mark Millage, the station’s news director, did not return telephone calls seeking more information about the poll.

One Democratic aide said the poll numbers reflected Diedrich’s growing name recognition. “There’s definitely been some narrowing,” the aide said. “Nobody knew who he was. I think he introduced himself to voters, and it’s a conservative state, and he got the low-hanging fruit.”

The Democrat also said that Herseth maintains a wider lead than some of the poll numbers indicate. The aide pointed out that while Herseth has a statistically insignificant edge when it comes to voters who are certain to vote June 1, she holds a nine-point lead among a larger pool of voters who are only likely to cast ballots.

Whatever the case, the new poll shows that Diedrich is a serious contender and that the Democrats can no longer count on picking up the at-large seat, which was vacated earlier this year by Rep. Bill Janklow (R). Janklow spent 100 days behind bars for his role in accidentally killing a motorcyclist; he was released yesterday.

[KQQL]

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[KQQL]

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[KQQL]

more info on the sd race:


GOP has spend $ 2 million on ads , mailers etc.

Also, Larry has run a good campaign, but 20-25% republicans in
SD still don't want to vote for a rwpublican , which means Larrry needs a miracle or change of heart by the republican voters by june1,2004 if is to win

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Several Republicans in Washington are voicing serious concerns that they may lose the June 1 South Dakota House race, despite a new Mason-Dixon poll showing Larry Diedrich (R) closing the gap with his Democratic rival, Stephanie Herseth.
http://thehill.com/campaign/051904_herseth.aspx

[The Scourge of Yazid]

Thanks for the update.

I never quite understood why SD continues to elect such radicals to high office, especially the United States Senate, when it is considered to be a generally conservative, Plains state.

I think Ramesh Ponnuru, or one of the other writers for National Review, wrote an article trying to explain this phenomenon, claiming that the reason the state always sent extremely liberal, big government Democrats to the U.S. Senate was because of its belief in federal entitlements, especially farm subsidies.

[SoDak]

This is exactly what internal polling has been saying in the last few weeks. There's a strange dynamic developing. In 2002, in a 3 way primary, voters sent two well-known, well-financed, generally liked candidates for governor to the woodshed. Both were campaigning very hard, and the guy that won eventually (Gov. Rounds), though nearly unknown to start, got there by being the nice guy, and refusing to play in the mud at all.

Princess Stephanie saw this as a trend to hang her hat on, and has come off as lightweight, thin-skinned, and presumptuous. She led big early, and decided to go on cruise control. And the moment a Diedrich ad came out, claimed he was being mean. SoDaks like nice, but they don't want to elect a victim either. DAMN, but this is cool stuff. I think she still has an edge, but things have gotten remarkably brighter.

[SoDak]

Keep in mind also, I do not believe that this special election will garner NEARLY the Native American turnout that we saw in 2002. In this special election, it's not going to happen, she does not have the resources and team to do it. In 2002, the dems knew the leadership of the senate was on the line, so they sent in armies, not gonna happen now cuz they know they're not getting the house back anytime soon.