Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Eight

CNN ^ | 5-17-04 | Various

[JustPiper]

Picture credit: TheCabal

Picture Credit:Calpernia

I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat"

LINK TO THREAD SEVEN

BREAKING NEWS

Iraqi governing council leader among those killed by Baghdad car bomb, Iraqi officials say. Details soon.

Breaking News Alert BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) U.S. military colonel says four Iraqis killed, two U.S. soldiers injured, in car bomb at entrance to coalition headquarters in Baghdad.

[all4one]

"Stotting"...great post. I do think that we here at TM are the stotters, in a herd of sleeping sheeple. Now I have a name to go along with that feeling of unease and hyper-alertness that I have had lately.

[NothingMan]

We have probably stopped some big attacks since 9/11. We have probably disrupted more than we have stopped. Small attacks are not "cost-effective" for AQ. (Maybe for lone-wolves or rogue cells, but not for something requiring significant organizational resources). Someone who has spent years burying themselves over here is not going to blow it all on a pipe-bomb (unless he is desparate). It needs to be a significant target or significant casualties. That is why no bus bombs a la Israel. The "break-even point" for an operation over there to be cost effective is much lower. The terrorists live down the road or across the street, their support infrastructure is local and extensive, and there is an endless supply of them.

I don't think the 2-3 year spacing of major AQ hits that some analysts talk about is relevant. A pre-9/11 template is not appropriate to post-9/11 assessments. Pre-9/11 was a "gentleman's war". It (as all wars do)had rules. Gloves came off on both sides after 9/11.

It takes years of methodical planning for a major operation. So that is the only reason I would give the 2-3 year cycle any credence, but again, it is not relevant to post-9/11. The post-9/11 hits were in planning stages as 9/11 was transpiring. As we killed and captured AQ post-9/11, we likely disrupted the follow-on attacks. But what was initiated after 9/11 was probably sealed off and compartmentalized for a post-9/11 environment and the coming hit(s) is/are threrefore all the more difficult to uncover.

Iraq also brought new recruits and players into the mix (you have to take the bad with the good). We probably don't have a handle on most of them.

"Disrupting" attacks saves lives over the long run. If I am walking down a busy street, and someone is trying to pick my pocket, I may turn around every once in a while just to throw him off. I have no idea who in the crowd behind me is the target, but it throws him off. (Like changing a defensive scheme in the middle of a football play). True, in the end he might get my wallet because I cannot keep turning around like that, and he might get lucky and grab it when I am looking the wrong way, but I also might be able to get where I want to go before he achieves his objective. I also may know exactly which one of the dozens of people behind me is the one who is the pickpocket, but what he doesn't know is that I am letting him follow me to the donut shop where I am going to meet my buddy the cop.

It may sound depressing, but even if you cannot prevent all the major attacks headed our way, you can save countless lives by stopping or delaying some of them. If by keeping them on the run, and keeping them guessing, and most important, taking away the nations who are their sugar daddies, safe havens, and silent partners either by co-opting or neutralizing them - - and over 40 years they achieve (on average) say 50,000 casualties every 4 years instead of 100,000 casualties evey two years, then you incur a quarter of the casualties you otherwise would have sustained. (500,000 vs 2,000,000 over 40 years) It is an extreme example, and it sounds cold to talk that way, but that's war. No different than when the Nazis bombed London, just that we will get all our casualties at once instead of having them inflicted daily over an extended period.

[NothingMan]

Dallas

[NothingMan]

Isn't Shukhrijuma a pilot as well?

Either we are on the right track (AQ is persistent and goes with what works) Or we are off base (fighting the last war). With all the flight cancellations around the beginning of the year, I assume it is the former rather than the latter.

[milkncookies]

The Emergency Email & Wireless Network®

[Domestic Church]

I thought of St. Louis too...remember that very thin wire they pulled off the bridge there?

[appalachian_dweller]

Have not started to catch up from where I left off last night, but I wanted to get this out now....

Usually on the way into work, I see anywhere from 3 to 7 jetliners take off from Dulles. This morning I didn't see any. Anyone know if there is something happening at Dulles this morning. Not seeing any planes in the sky gives me the creeps.

Funny how what used to be annoying is now comforting. Strange new world. Everything looks the same but nothing really is.

[Calpernia]

Dulles Airport:

Departures are experiencing taxi delays of 16 to 45 minutes and/or arrivals are experiencing airborne holding delays of 16 to 45 minutes.

http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

[NothingMan]

Exactly. (So long as we do not numb the entire nation into complacency in the process of repeated alerts, news conferences, and warnings.) A delicate and difficult balance. Too much and you get the "boy crying wolf" syndrome. Too little, and you get 9/11.

After the next attack, whether it is Bush, Kerry, or someone else, we should all keep that in mind before whaling on him. Whoever is unfortunate enough to "win" that election has some of the most unenviable choices on earth. Every morning you get vague warnings of attacks in the works that might cause normal people to lose control over their bodily functions, and it is up to you to make the call on what to do when you *think* something very bad *might* happen, but you don't know who, what, when , where, why, or how. Every day you have to decide when the threats stop being vague chatter and actually start looking like a pattern because as many analysts you have in all the agencies and departments, and as many able people you have as advisers, it is your call.

It's a no-win situation because you can never reveal your succeses (either because it would compromise your ability to save future lives or because you cannot prove a negative - - that a hit did *not* happen). But your failures (even if it is just one time) will be for the world to see with the body count. Plus you are the most targeted man on the planet. So pray for the current occupant of the Whitehouse, but also pray for future ones, whenever and whoever they might be - - even if you cannot stand them. Because the lives of you and your families depend on him doing a job that is as close to impossible as you can get.

[Velveeta]

Yes, he's a trained pilot as well.

Here's an article which has the most detailed information about Shukrijuhma:

Believed to Have Trained as Pilot

(snip) El Shukrijumah was born in Saudi Arabia and is thought to be a terror operative on the level of Atta, the lead hijacker in the Sept. 11 attacks, sources said. One source described him as a "real bad guy."

He is described as 5-foot-3 to 5-foot-5, 132 pounds, with a Mediterranean complexion, black hair and black eyes. He occasionally wears a beard.

He does not have a pilot's license registered with the Federal Aviation Administration, but that does not mean he is not a trained pilot. He is believed to have trained at a flight school in Florida. Many of the Sept. 11 hijackers also got flight training in the state.(snip)

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Primetime/iraq_terrorthreats030320.html

[flutters]

Columbus, Ohio from the Columbus Dispatch

Three men in custody on rape charges

Thursday, May 27, 2004

Three men accused of kidnapping and raping a teenage girl at gunpoint on the East Side were in jail last night each on a $100,000 cash bond.

The men held the 16-year-old girl at gunpoint and then raped her in the Sterling Court Apartments on Sterling Lane about 1 a.m. Monday, according to a complaint filed in Franklin County Municipal Court.

Abdirahman Elmi,20, of 3242 Agape Dr.; Mohamed F. Jama, 22, of 6113 Cooper Woods Dr.; and Shuaib A. Haji-Mohamed, 19, of Tampa, Fla., all have been charged with rape and kidnapping, court records show. They were in the Franklin County jail last night after being arraigned on Tuesday.

The girl identified the men through a photo lineup, Sgt. David Clark of the Columbus Police sexual-abuse squad said. An investigation is continuing.

[all4one]

Salmonella

[Velveeta]

Chicago was murder capital
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/01/01/city.murders.ap/

[tmp02]

obviously the "capital of criminals" is regarding DC not because of its crime rate, but because AlQ thinks that what Bush and others have done in Iraq and Afghanistan is the true crime.

[bored at work]

Glad they caught those ME rat bas - turds. . .hope they just throw into prison population. Rest assured, they WILL get theirs.