Posted on 05/14/2004 2:00:26 PM PDT by KQQL
That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.
If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.
Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.
The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.
The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
That's nonsense. The Bush campaign organization is the most professional, co-ordinated and well funded in American political history. The Bushies OWN the ground.
The President isn't timing his campaign to appease wobbly-legged internet people in May. The man is a systematic, methodical, professional WINNER.
OTOH, saving some sort of dramatic reversal of fortune (for example, the emergence of a really popular coalition government able to quell the worst of civil unrest after June 30) IMO it seems likely that approval of the current policy (as opposed to more general support of a strong US and US troops) will eventually be reduced to the 40% (my guess) or so who will support the president irrespective of events in Iraq, and Republicans will be faced with high negatives on the issue, with all the attendant problems noted above.
Most important aspects, and nearly all that needs to be covered is done so in your last paragraph. Excellent analysis, and just like the song Everybody Wants to Rule the World, I wish I'd written it.
Just want to say one last thing, and that is that the chances of that popular coalition government you speak of seem very, very slim. Now the administration seems like they want to rush the results and fast-forward democracy to a region that in all likelihood requires more time, and it's probably the worst thing they could do. This can't be won soley by military means, it needs finesse, something that the administration doesn't seem to have a hankering for. I had immense confidence in the competence of President Bush and his team, and that confidence is starting to rapidly erode.
Once Moveon.org and their ilk can not run their ads (60 days before the election thanks to CFR) then it will be up to Kerry and Bush to pay for every ad. Bush is eating Kerry alive right now in the fund raising dept.
If he would tackle most of those issues -- and there is no reason why that can't be done -- he will win easily.
However, I see so far a campaign that has allowed the economy to be defined (as bad)...who has allowed 527's to go unanswered for over 4 months....Who has not thought of one creative way to get good economic news out to the American public....and over-the-head of the partisan press.....who has yet to layout a platform of what he is running on.....Just to name a few....Not to mention having a VP who is about nonexistent...
I work hard every week trying to get people supporting GWB. I have found one way that has seemed to work with extended family and coworkers of coworkers....It is simple email messages of "positive news"....
This is GWB election to lose (that is a fact). However, with how he is running this campaign....he just might lose.
I will stand by my assertion...that if GWB is tied or trailing by Sept. 21st...he will lose......and if Gas prices (national avg.) is not down to under $1.50 by Sept 21st...he will also lose. (not because of high prices at the pump alone....but because of the impact the rising energy costs will have on business....and thus that effect)
"This is GWB election to lose (that is a fact)."
I agree
"I will stand by my assertion...that if GWB is tied or trailing by Sept. 21st...he will lose......and if Gas prices (national avg.) is not down to under $1.50 by Sept 21st...he will also lose. (not because of high prices at the pump alone....but because of the impact the rising energy costs will have on business....and thus that effect)"
gas prices will not be at $1.50 by early Oct because of refinery capacity. The ywill likey be where the yare today. As for high energy costs hurtign the economy, they will but it takes about a year. many businesses are hedged, especially big ones, and it takes some time. It wanst until Summer 1974 that the Oct 1973 oil embargo began to cause job layoffs
Agree!!!!! :)
I believe if a barrel of oil falls below the $28.50 range....we will see gas prices (for the short term) fall under $1.50 (national avg). Of course capacity issues along with reformulations issues will then begin to drive prices back up...within 4 to 6 months...
youre right then, i think most "summer" regulations end around Sept 15th
The Prez is drawing wildly enthusiastic, overflow crowds wherever he goes. He's doing the tough, day to day ground work.
There's no passion for John Kerry. Watch a Bush campaign rally, then a Kerry campaign rally. No comparison whatsoever.
I'd rather have the President managing Iraq and the WOT, selling another tax cut and letting the outcomes of good leadership and policy evolve on their own.
Right now, the media is engaged in a grossly corrupt onslaught against our sitting Commander in Chief. It's not working. Bush should be down 20 points given the propaganda with which the elite media and the 527s are saturating the discussion.
This is a horse race. The smart Democrats are panicking right now, I guarantee you. They know the worm is going to turn in a righteous way. Don't despair. They are.
Onyx,did they say when Opec would do that? Thanks.
Nope.
Sorry. :(
I heard on the news several days ago that prices are expected to peak sometime in June.
Bravo for your always appreciated analysis. So correct about poll obcessiveness at this juncture.
Prairie
Oui, Jean François!
"Polls had Reagan and Mondale tied in May of 1984 and Mondale ahead in July of 1984."
Now if we cant only get Kerry to promise to raise taxes during his convention speech, we're all set for a repeat. ....
Of course the bad news is, his speeches are so boring the nation will turn it off and not notice whatever gaffe he makes ("and I promise to make pre-nups with millionaire spouses a Federal felony ... my State Dept Secty will be Goofy Anan and I will sell the pentagon to the UN ... and I will roll back not just the Bush tax cuts, but the Bush war on terror. We will be reinstalling Saddam and the taliban forthwith ... hello, anyone listening? ... " )
I want to add another ingredient to this mix.The GOP's convention is from August 30th to September 2nd.Mel Gibson's "THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST" will be released on DVD/VIDEO August 31. I don't think Mel releasing the DVD/VIDEO on the 31st is coincidental.So many people have been affected by that film!
kerry wins, we loose. What a concept. This guy will be another freekin carter. Please, let's not return to the 70's.
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