Posted on 05/14/2004 2:00:26 PM PDT by KQQL
That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.
If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.
Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.
The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.
The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
First, Bush's perception by the public cannot be media driven. There are only a percentage of voters who base their opinions upon media reports. The general public has a very short attention span and even shorter memory.
Second, never forget that Bush owns the 'bully-pulpit' and can make or change the agenda, and the nation's focus anytime he wishes. There is no story in today's media that will be the focus in November.
Third, the facts are these. We are actually winning in Iraq, despite the media's best efforts to deny it. We are also winning on the economy. Bush has barely begun to fight back, and as before this is NOT the time. He needed to stop Kerry's momentum last month and did so with ease.
Fourth, WMD and OSAMA are still variables under Bush's control, not Kerry.
The point is, the election is and always has been Bush's to lose, and what happens in November is really in his hands. If he wants to win, he will. Its just that simple.
"The lack of WMD delivered the first real body blow to the President, like it or n"
youre 100% right. Bush's approval ratings fell about 10% after Dr. KAys testimony and havent recovered. Bush was leading Kerry by 55-39.
Ive never said Kerry is great. In fact if youd read my other posts, my prediction is that while Kerry wins, his approval rating will peak at about 55-57% by summer 2005 and then fall rapidly. 2006 could be a repeat of 1994 with Kerry as President.
So my message is: Kerry wins, then is hated
I tell you when he was President the way he handled the press was a weekly source of great amusement for me. Though I will say that they were harder on Reagan than Bush Sr. Reagan just knew how to use them against themselves.
It might be that with Bush Sr. things just got back to normal. I hate to say it (and I will no doubt get flamed) but Bush Sr. was not the most impressive President in my lifetime and outside of Reagan (and maybe Ike) that is not aiming very high.
Perhaps you are right: The Bushes are everything the old Democrat Hierarchy hated - old money, public service, distinguished careers and the like. Perhaps Reagan was more like a father they resented but in the end did not hate. I note with awe that even in NYC now Liberals speak respectfully of Reagan - sometimes people have to tell me to shut my jaws.
Bush, on the other hand represents a peer from the other side of town that has done well - even by his own merits - and they can truly let the hatred flow. It is interesting that the sort of hatred is almost exactly the same in Europe toward Bush (and really toward the whole US, no matter what they say about it just being about Bush) and I really do not think it is due to a conspiracy, It is a hatred so obviously filled with envy, resentment and denial. I think that they hate Bush because he really does represents the real America. Not their self deluded, "faux-European," elitist notion of the country, but the real America, and you know how they feel about that country. If you throw on top of that the real middle age anxiety about themselves, the fact that they must now know in so tiny recess of their dim little minds that this "faux-european" America is a total fraud, a hoax that they played on themselves for all these long years, the level of the rage is understandable. It is really themselves that they hate, and so it always was. (well they hate the country too...)
But in the end I think that somewhere deep inside they know this is their last moment. If they lose here the Democrat party may well not survive. Conversely, a GOP loss here would set back the conservative cause considerably. I also think that the Democrat Party is beset both as a whole and in its constituent parts with a sort of menopausal panic - a sort of collective case of Hot Flashes. Well I could go on...
I tell you, I was really hoping for e decisive Bush will and some real pickups on the Hill. That might have sent the Rats packing for good.
I pray for a real renewal of this once great nation, and that can only happen if the Democrat Party and all it represents is destroyed once and for all time.
I do not know...the Reps name is King. I think it is in the Title. have a look, you will laugh.
OBSESSING OVER DAILY PUBIC OPINION POLLS IS INCREDIBLY MASOCHISTIC AND UNPRODUCTIVE!! [I only post on these threads to offer perspective to lurkers who might actually take this stuff seriously and start contemplating suicide!]
POINTS:
1.) This is a 2-day quickie poll of ADULTS -- meaningless! [I have indicated before that today's 20-29% response rates require that pollsters survey over a minimum 5-day period to generate anything remotely resembling a representative sample. // To generate a representative sample of LIKELY VOTERS, pollsters must both use the same timeframe and generate a reasonably sized sample; otherwise, you get these bogus CNN/TIME polls of 400 LVs with MOEs of +/- 5]
2.) A president's job approval ratings provide a TRANSITORY snapshot of the public's perception of CURRENT events -- the ratings will change as the perception of events change!
[FYI: During his 8-year tenure, President Reagan posted approval ratings in the 30s and 40s during almost 6 of his 8 years -- fortunately for him, the economy improved just in time for re-election in 1984 and the Iran-Contra scandal/the stock market crash of 1987 happened in his second term! It remains to be seen how events will unfold for President Bush; regardless, he will continue to do the RIGHT thing -- d*mn the election!]
3.) We are now entering a 'dead' season relative to political campaigning. During the months of May, June, July and August, the voting public will become EXTREMELY distracted and uninterested in politics -- polling will become even more meaningless. IF YOU MUST OBSESS OVER POLLS, WAIT UNTIL THE CONVENTIONS IN LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER!
4.) If you enjoy polls, why not focus on those that survey the President's base:
NewsMax Poll: Overwhelming Support for Rumsfeld
Thursday, May 13, 2004
In just three days NewsMax has received more than 100,000 votes in its online poll on the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal.
The non-scientific results show that NewsMax readers – and Internet users across the Web – overwhelming support embattled Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
More than 9 out of 10 respondents said Rumsfeld should not heed calls by Democratic critics that he resign.
By almost equal margins, respondents said they approved of the job Rumsfeld has done and felt the media was "overplaying" the scandal.
Here are the poll questions and results:
1) Should Donald Rumsfeld resign?
Resign: 7%
Not Resign: 93%
2) Do you approve of the job Donald Rumsfeld has done as Sec. of Defense?
Approve: 93%
Disapprove: 7%
3.) How would you describe media coverage of the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal?
Overplayed: 90%
About Right: 7%
Not Enough: 3%
4) Did you support Pres. Bush's war on Iraq?
Yes: 94% No: 6%
5) Has the prisoner abuse scandal changed your view of the war?
Yes: 3%
No: 97%
6) Do you still approve of the job George Bush has done?
Approve: 94%
Disapprove: 6%
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/5/12/202610.shtml
Yesterday over 1,000 members of the American Conservative Union gave the President multiple standing ovations; today, 7,000 graduates/families at Concordia University (Wisconsin) gave the President a heroes welcome . . .
The focus now is the BASE -- in September, the campaign will target the 5-8% of the population that is actually undecided!!
Here's what Boxsmith13 just said:
I expect that Bush 43, unlikeBush 41 and Carter will not give up on the race and will like Truman fight to the end.
I agree 100%, and doesn't sound like a troll comment to me. Bush needs to, as Churchill once said, "Never, never, never, never, never, ever surrender."
Anyway, what I'm really hoping for is Republicans to start coming ouy swinging for Bush, like on the Sunday shows and elsewhere and fight! No more McCain, Hagel, and Spector for the Republicans. When will we see Delay, Inofue, and the other battlers? This campaign needs to go into full swing today!
Don't take the poll results from CNN/TIME too seriously as their readers viewers are 80% liberal. Have some faith in Bush!
This poll had 563 likely voters with a MOE of 4.1 percent.
I invite you to read my comments at post #248!
Why would anyone believe the dirt slinging lazy arse Kerry would be ready to turn into the man to clean the terrorist garbage?
America better get a clue as to who is most qualified to clean this mess and to commit to it.
Kerry is incapable of expressing clearly a program, let alone of getting dirty for others. Celebrities exploit people and do not serve people, is it hard to understand?
Yeah, like Dims are for the American worker... my arse.
Now, on to your counterpoints:
First, Bush's perception by the public cannot be media driven. There are only a percentage of voters who base their opinions upon media reports. The general public has a very short attention span and even shorter memory.
I think it is media driven for that part of the electorate that holds the winning hand, that 6 to 20% number of independents that's always out there. However, your point about attention span is not arugable.
Second, never forget that Bush owns the 'bully-pulpit' and can make or change the agenda, and the nation's focus anytime he wishes. There is no story in today's media that will be the focus in November.
As far as the War is concerned he can't really make or change the agenda, events drive that and he can't control events for the most part. And your general point about the 'bully-pulpit' while accepted is not this President's strong suit IMO, because he doesn't seem to like it or take advantage of it as he should.
Third, the facts are these. We are actually winning in Iraq, despite the media's best efforts to deny it. We are also winning on the economy. Bush has barely begun to fight back, and as before this is NOT the time. He needed to stop Kerry's momentum last month and did so with ease.
I don't think you can really say that we're 'winning' in Iraq presently. We're holding our own would be as far as I would go in characterizing the positive aspects of this War. Please see, if you're so inclined website called Cella's Review, and scroll down to piece by N. Millman regarding Rumsfeld and the War. Long but very informative piece. But I will agree that the media is painting this as a fiasco, and as yet, I'm not willing to take that view. But as you see, the media can control perception.
Fourth, WMD and OSAMA are still variables under Bush's control, not Kerry.
Agreed!
The point is, the election is and always has been Bush's to lose, and what happens in November is really in his hands. If he wants to win, he will. Its just that simple.
I'm sure I said pretty much the same thing in my original post.
. . . same difference, my friend, same difference!
I would like to know what is wrong with the people in this country if lying flake Kerry can get above 28 %. Bush is not getting enough face time in the media and sure enough need to replace his press secrtary.
Hell, in our first year of existence (USA) I doubt we would have handled a trial like this...that well...
The funny thing is that when I talk around in my office about what's going on, most don't seem to be aware or even care about poll numbers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.