Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping (Kerry 49% W 44% Nader 6%-W approval @ 46%)

cnn.com ^ | 05/14/04 | cnn.

[KQQL]

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points

[FA14]

This is GWB's election to lose. Period. (the fact that he is running a terrible campagin doesn't bode well).

But make no mistake, this election is GWB's to lose, not Kerry's.

A proactive campagin that should have started last Nov (with setting the premise on the economy) would have made this election much easier...as it is now, it will come right down to the wire.....

If GWB is tied or losing by Sept 21st....he will lose.

[ride the whirlwind]

These news driven polls flip-flop as much as JfK does. At this stage in the game, I'm not going to put too much stock in them - come late October though, I hope GWB has a nice lead going into the election.

[KQQL]

If I have the brainpower of a moth, then you have the brain power of a A$$

[cohokie]

How so ... conservatives can disapprove of Bush and still vote for him ... if approve / disapprove was applied to kerry it would be horrible as well since most of his support is based on the fact that he is not W.

[John Lenin]

Don't tell me, you are one of those moderates who tries to be right all the time and has no core convictions.

[KQQL]

Re elections are all about the POTUS , hence approval numbers matter

[CasearianDaoist]

I live in NYC. To be a conservative around here and keep one's sanity one have to have at least three circles: A purely conservative circle, a mixed right and mildly left of center and then one's workaday life's circle which one really cannot avoid the fact that it will be strongly liberal. I have stopped trying to have conversations in any but the first circle I listed above. All of the anti bush stuff I hear comes straight out of the media with no examination or even modifications at all. I can ever tell the paticular place the got the party line for the most part. at. What I see is less ideological than it is driven by peer pressure and a need to be "hip."

That is why I find your experience disconcerting in that you are out in the Midwest (where I grew up.) I sort of expected better out of those folks. I think he needs to go after them and bring out the big guns (Gulini, Arnold, etc.) The only thing he can do about the gas business is to start some sort of whisper campaign that it is all the Saudi's doing, which I doubt he would do as it does not at this point seem to be honorable. It is sad that with the many serious issues on the table that people would worry about the price of gas. The Dems will put us right into a depression, maybe willfully. The damage that the Demcorats can do to our future as a nation is greater than at any time since 1932, IMHO.

I do not have a counter to the media. I think that this is the crux of the matter. I have never seen such a long, strong media headwind in an election in my life and I am in my 50's. I thought it was bad during the Reagan years but it is much worse now.

I had better hopes for Midwesterners. It says a sad thing about this country. We were never given a clearer choice and perhaps have not been at such a dangerous point in our history since the Civil War - and the WOT is just one of those dangers. For Kerry to win bespeaks of a decadence that I fear we could never recover from.

The events in Iraq of late are not as bad really as the press portrays them. Bush needs to cover them. He also needs to come out and speak more national. He always gets a bump after that.

It is odd to me that the gas prices are the deciding factor here. I would think that people would dhow a little more sobriety.

[KQQL]

You are so typical , unless people agree with you , you call them a moderate , names , etc.

Unlike you, I don't live in a Partisan Fanstasy land

[John Lenin]

I always pick a president on the price of gasoline. LOL

[cohokie]

I notice that you still have not replied to the comment that the two incumbent presidents who did lose had approval ratings in the 30s ...? IF you think W's is dropping that low then i have a bridge and brooklyn for sale

[John Lenin]

I'm just telling you how you come across.

[pj2000]

Don't forget we are using electronic voting this election, the RATS can't rig those machines.

Are you serious? Have you seen any of the investigations on electronic voting machines? These machines are very vulnerable and should be backed by a paper trail.

[AntiGuv]

My guess is that W's approval ratings will not drop into the 30s but that he will still lose the election if they are in the 40s come Nov 2, he simply won't lose it in a landslide like Carter and Bush 41 did.

[FA14]

Great post!. I a concur 100%.

The fact is GWB has really run a "LAZY" campagin. Him and Cheney (and I love both of them to death). But they are Lazy (just as Bush Sr. was....Clinton outworked him to death).

The GWB camp should have been coming up with creative idea after creative idea on how to out-spin the media when it comes to good economic news....But they have been lazy and they are paying for it (which means we all might pay for it).

[John Lenin]

Kerry should be up by 10%, get real !

[comebacknewt]

KQQL provides a valuable service to this board by posting a lot of poll results -- both good and bad. I remember him doing this in 2000 as well.

The fact that most polls that are coming out recently show GWB slumping is not his fault. If the election were help today, Kerry probably wins.

The good news is W has over five months to get back on top. The bad news is he never should have allowed himself to get in this position in the first place. It is not time to give up by any means, but we should all realize this is going to be a very tough fight this election.

[ambrose]

Good news...

[ambrose]

Good news...

but Oil prices are only half the story... I believe demand is also sky high... refineries can't keep up... traffic is just as bad as it always is...

[John Lenin]

I'm just saying he picks the worst poll and acts like it is the word of god. Look at Rasmussen and Quinnipac, both have Bush tied or ahead.

[BigTime]

"If the election were held today." As stated elsewhere on this post, the election will not be held today and this is an absurd suggestion. But to amplify that point, I think in the Bush-Kerry race, an important dynamic will arise in the weeks leading up to the election. Voters who have preferences now will need to more closely examine their positions and the candidates to be sure they are making the right choice. When this happens, they will contrast the performance of Bush vs. the promise of Kerry. As the campaigns have unfolded since the first several months after Kerry emerged as the frontrunner, I now believe Bush has this election in hand for this reason: when people get ready to pull the voting trigger, many of the mushy middle will realize that, yes, they are disappointed with some events in Iraq, but they cannot in good conscience replace their war president with a man like Kerry (indecisive, waffling, very liberal with a history of not supporting the military).

I think the poll ratings right now are in effect people reflecting their disappointment in the tragedies that have unfolded recently in Iraq.

I believe and predict that in the coming weeks (probably at least a month), the Bush people will come back to their man and watch out for the makeup sex. I think the numbers will go back up and won't come down as people make their "buying decision" and overcome their silly impulses.

Witness Howard Dean. Common thinking has it that he had a "meltdown". I think a better explanation for Iowa which predated his outburst was that people examined the man and recognized he was not of the character for the job. They then turned to the adults in the race, but it was fun driving a fast car for a while when Dean was a novelty. I think there are similarities with Kerry now. People are pining for easy answers and that's what Kerry represents. But as they closely consider these issues and are again sobered by rembrances of 9-11 (see NYC Republican convention), they will become more sober and make the adult decision.

Sure there are plenty of Rats out there that will never come around. I'm talking about the people in the middle.

Right now, I believe the Bush campaign is rightfully taking their shots during a tough period because the Liberals and media have been so predictable in overplaying their hands with the latest "controvery" that Bush eventually comes back up in his poll numbers after the assault.

By constantly trying to make political hay out of national tragedies, in time, the libs and media are the ones that appear to be besmirched by the events. Watch the numbers start to climb back up in the next few weeks.

One parting thought: When do you think we'll see Saddam's face on TV again and what do you think that will do to Bush's numbers. It's amazing how quiet that story has been.