Posted on 05/12/2004 5:52:43 PM PDT by jwalburg
MEDIA, Pa. - Sen. John Kerry should make a stop in the Philadelphia suburbs and look up Janet McFadden.
The independent businesswoman recently changed her registration from Republican to Democrat, and she thinks President Bush's war in Iraq is a grave mistake, "another Vietnam."
But she's not ready to commit. "I don't know enough about Kerry," said McFadden, 55, who sells real estate and works as a part-time travel agent. "He scares me. I'm not sure what he's all about."
As in the war in Iraq, success in the presidential contest means winning hearts and minds.
Kerry's public standing has been damaged by Bush's onslaught of critical ads, and swing voters either don't know him or consider him a vacillating politician. And while Democrats have rallied to him in record numbers, he doesn't command their devotion. Nearly two out of three Kerry backers say their support is based more on antipathy toward Bush than regard for Kerry, according to a new poll by the Pew Research Center.
Kerry's efforts to introduce himself to independent voters are being drowned out by negative news from Iraq. Though the prison-abuse scandal and continuing casualties in Iraq have hurt Bush, they also are keeping Kerry out of the public eye. As a result, Kerry has become something of an afterthought, a secondary political figure at a time when he'd planned to begin shaking off the aftereffects of Bush's ad campaign.
Still, he remains slightly ahead of Bush in key battleground states. He's in the middle of a $27.5 million ad campaign - most of it in swing states. For the past two weeks, he's been campaigning in those states, focusing on health care and education - two issues on which voters prefer Kerry strongly over Bush. Though Kerry hasn't commanded much national attention lately, he's getting significant local press coverage in the swing states he visits.
"It's a process for those (undecided) voters," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Research Center. "They're going to get to know him slowly during this period. It's hard for him to make this a point in the campaign where there's a big sea change in attitude."
Interviews last week with undecided voters in this Philadelphia suburb of tree-shaded streets and brick sidewalks found that Kerry was seen as something of a blank slate.
"He hasn't jumped out at me," McFadden said. "I don't get good vibes - which scares me, because I want to vote for him." She still has a reservoir of good will toward Bush. "I like Bush," she said. "He seems sensitive and compassionate, personable."
Bush lost Pennsylvania in 2000 by 4 percentage points. He's visited the state 27 times since, a testament to its importance. But to win the state, Bush must capture the suburban counties around Philadelphia, which is dominated by moderate Republicans who favored Ronald Reagan and the first President Bush in the 1980s but leaned Democratic during the Clinton-Gore years.
The formula is much the same in states such as Michigan, which Bush also lost narrowly in 2000, and in Missouri, Florida and Ohio - all states where Bush eked out victories. That's where Kerry is concentrating his message now.
But polls show that Kerry has been unable to capitalize on Bush's declining support. Despite bad news about the war and growing doubts about Bush's leadership, Bush still scores better than Kerry on character issues such as trust and honesty.
Wednesday's Pew poll found that 23 percent of voters describe Kerry positively while 28 percent describe him with negative terms, the most frequent being "liar," "dishonest" and "wishy-washy."
"Kerry is not benefiting from Bush's vulnerabilities," said Ken Warren, a former Missouri pollster and now a political scientist at St. Louis University. "The reason is all of those character issues with Bush are so high. And they're not with Kerry."
Charlie Butterfield, a Pennsylvanian who voted for Bush in 2000, said he's disillusioned by Iraq and would consider voting for a Democrat, but said he doesn't sense that Kerry has what it takes to be president. "It seems like there's something missing - he's an empty suit," said Butterfield, 66, who builds telecommunications towers. "I feel he's not qualified for the job. Whatever it is, he doesn't have it."
Rita Brown, an undecided Republican and owner of a real estate agency in Drexel Hill, Pa., said she has a mixed view of Kerry. "I like his service history," she said, referring to Kerry's tour as a Swift boat skipper in Vietnam. "I like the fact that he'd like us out of Iraq. On the downside, there's something there that I'm not sure about him. ... He doesn't turn me off, but he doesn't wow me."
State Democratic operatives in several battleground states show no signs of panicking, though some grumble that Kerry hasn't installed a paid political team in states such as Missouri, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Past political campaigns would have considered setting up such organizations premature, but this election is off to an unprecedented start, with both sides spending millions on early advertising.
"There's still a long way to go, and there's such a thing as peaking too soon in campaigns," said Bill George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, which backs Kerry.
In Missouri, Roy Temple, the campaign manager for Democratic Gov. Bob Holden, predicted that undecided voters will tune in to the presidential race during the party's summer conventions and during fall debates.
"You have to be careful about letting things sit," he said. But he added: "The infrastructure, while not visible or particularly sexy, is very methodically being put in place."
Can't help but think that Kerry's best bet is to be OUT of the spotlight.
"It seems like there's something missing - he's an empty suit," said Butterfield, 66, who builds telecommunications towers. "I feel he's not qualified for the job. Whatever it is, he doesn't have it."
"It" is gravitas.
I may be mistaken, and perhaps I'll check it out, but I believe that the Pew poll questioned "adults", not necessarily voters or likely voters.
You should take him to meet Juan Kerry so your dog can mark him as his territory.
Nearly two out of three Kerry backers say their support is based more on antipathy toward Bush than regard for KerryAnd that is exactly why I think sKerry is just a placeholder. McAwful & Co. didn't have to use sKerry, they could have almost used anyone.
The wicked ole Hildabeaste has her pudgy little finger in the air feeling the breeze. What say, Hilda, you have the cojones to go up against President Bush? Bring it!
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