Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq (Bush 46%, Kerry 41%)

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP ^ | 5.11.04

[ambrose]

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Feature Story

Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq

BY IBD STAFF

Despite the Iraq prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.

The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.

In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.

In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.

But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%.

Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose — from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%.

"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."

Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry, the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.

Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.

Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied."

Among independents, 16% are "very satisfied" and 43% are "somewhat satisfied" with the available choice of candidates.

The poll has some good news for Kerry, however. Nearly three-fourths (71%) say they made up their minds about whom they'll vote for back in February or even earlier. One in five (18%) say they decided in April and March. While Bush dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more recent deciders (70% to 24%).

An IBD/TIPP index that gauges public opinion of U.S. standing in the world hit its all-time low of 44.5 this month, reflecting the "stain" the prison scandal may have made on the country's image. The index's previous low was 46.7 in March 2003, just before the Iraq military action.

Bush has indicated he is aware of the situation, admitting that the last two weeks have been tough on the Iraqi front, with the prison scandal following the bloodiest month there for U.S. troops.

Still, Bush's ratings are improving. Why? Mayur cites four reasons, while believing the net effect of all the positives vs. the negatives (especially the prison scandal) is still positive.

First, he said, the latest job data have convinced many that the economic recovery is for real. More admit that Bush's tax cuts have helped spur the recovery.

Second, Bush's campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing states seem to be bearing fruit. In late April, Kerry led the president 45% to 40%; now Bush leads by 15 points (51% to 36%) in the Midwest. "Each hand you shake is worth 100 votes," Mayur observed.

Third, most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader. "And as things get tougher in Iraq," Mayur said, "we expect more Americans to gravitate toward him."

Fourth, support for U.S. military action in Iraq remains stable at 57%. Also, 52% believe the action is helping make the world safer. Nearly half (47%) think the U.S. is winning the global war on terrorism while 36% believe it is losing.

Americans admit the prison scandal is not good for the country's image, Mayur said, but they are not blaming Bush directly. If they were, he said, the president's ratings would have dropped.

"Americans understand that a handful of people were responsible for the (prison) incidents and perhaps have accepted Bush's apology," Mayur said.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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[John Lenin]

Consider that Zombie had Dean ahead by 37% at one point ...

[KQQL]

@

[boxsmith13]

" think what all these slime attacks are doing is helping W. nail down his base!"

I agree, Bush has no problems with the base anymore like he did in January

[struwwelpeter]

Kerry will still be able to count on his base.

[conservative in nyc]

I think the headline should really read "Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry BECAUSE Of "Difficulties" In Iraq."

As each day passes, I'm becoming more and more convinced that the politicization of the scandal is backfiring on Flip-Flop and the Dems. Big time! Many of the NASCAR dads he needs to have any chance to win anywhere in the south and the Reagan Democrats he needs to win in the Midwest probably think the Iraqi prisoners got what was coming to them, anyway. Some women are repulsed by the pictures, repulsed by the release of the pictures, repulsed by the politicization of the pictures, and want this all to just go away. Other women empathise with the "poor kiddie" soldiers who just got caught up in a bad situation --- there but for the grace go I --- what if it were my little Johnny instead? And a good portion of the public just doesn't listen and doesn't care. They'll vote against Flip-Flop because he comes across as an arrogant S.O.B. whose wife will make Zsa Zsa Huffington look like Mother Teresa when all is said and done. (Ooooh. I insulted Tah-ray-zah -- bring it, Flip-Flop. And while you're coming, please bring me her tax returns. I need to see a good dose of liberal hypocrisy in the morning). Besides, President Bush has better hair.

But it's already been buh-rung. The grandstanding on the Hill will energize the Republican base. It might energize the metrosexual effeminate urban elites -- but they have their queer eyes on the metrosexual flip-flop guy anyway. Besides, come election day, they'll probably be too busy sipping their double mocha swiss latte grandes on their way to their facials at the spa to actually go out and vote.

Setbacks in war cause Americans to rally around the President. The question becomes not what has the incumbent done wrong, but how do we know that the other guy will do right. We didn't remove Lincoln. We didn't remove Roosevelt. We didn't remove Nixon. We voted for the General over the square in 1952. We voted for that General's Vice President over the liberal dove in 1968. And the metrosexual flip-flop guy voted for being a self-confessed war criminal before he voted against it. Is "decorated war hero" his final answer?

I'll take "Arrogant Quotes from Politicians Who Flip-Flop" for $200, please Alex. "Yo quiero una cerveza!" Who is John Kerry? "I don't fall down! That S.O.B. knocked me over!" Who is John Kerry? "I voted FOR the $87 Billion BEFORE I voted against it." Who is John Kerry? "The b!@ch set me up!" Well, who is Marion Barry.... But Flip Flop will stick his silver foot in his mouth to say something similar, I'm sure. Give him time. Let him talk.

Do not despair. Things may look bleak in the next few weeks. Hillary! will shrill. Kennedy will bloviate. KKK Byrd will put on his Bush hater hood once again. Leaky Leahy will leak more than the Titanic. And the Senate Republicans will push the Dems out of the way to get off the supposedly sinking Bush ship. But it will be Flip Flop's chances that will sink like the S.S. Minnow the more they make a mountain out of this cover-up mole hill. Let's just hope they don't let that RAT off of his sinking ship to swim to that unchartered desert isle of Eagleton.

[section9]

Kerry will improve, but I don't think he will ever again be as strong as he was in February, when everyone loved him and no one realized that he was such a vainglorious, pompous f#*ktard.

Still, for all of John Zogby's wishes and dreams, I think Bush takes this election by four to five points. The reason? The economy. The Dems are desperately trying to change the subject from the economy to Iraq, but Iraq has been enough of a success to avoid the prominence that Vietnam was in 1968. I think this poll has the ring of the right hunch to it, especially given Common Tator's anecdotal information about Ohio and the trouble that the Unions and the local Democrats are having with their people. As Harry Truman is said to have remarked before he went into battle against the favored Thomas E. "Man on the Wedding Cake" Dewey, "Elections are decided by the price of hogs in St. Louis".

John Kerry is trying to make this election about Iraq. Another damn fool decision by a damn fool.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[CPOSharky]

The liberals have what doesn't work right in front of them.

Therefore, they will keep doing it, even harder.

(If a couple of laws don't work, make more.)

[BlackRazor]

Zogby says there is only 5-6% undecided among likely voters, lower than ever before.

The President's pollster, Matthew Dowd, agrees, though he put the number at 8%.

[BlackRazor]

Their "battleground states" subsample is probably quite small, and the polling error for this sample correspondingly large. That's why it's jumping all over the place - from 46-43 for Kerry in April to 49-40 for Bush now. In general, I would not pay much attention to this particular piece of data.

I agree that any single poll should not be weighted too heavily, because you're right that the sample size is likely pretty small. But if you take all 6 polls in the aggregate, it would give Bush a 45-42 lead in the battleground states. That seems like a pretty reasonable estimate, though granted it's over a couple months' timeframe.

[zeebee]

Zogby says there is only 5-6% undecided among likely voters, lower than ever before.

The President's pollster, Matthew Dowd, agrees, though he put the number at 8%.

There is however a certain percentage that, even though they are decided now, will change their minds once the campaign ads come out and Kerry is exposed.

[NYC Republican]

Welcome to FR. Another conservative in NYC, part of a dying breed.

[Grampa Dave]

You didn't include one of GW's largest support group since 9/11, mothers with babies up to teenagers.

We have several younger females relatives in that category. Since 9/11, they have become GW fans and more conservative as time goes on.

One of these a young lady with two toddlers and another baby on the way, said she would go over with her dogs to get information out of the Iraqi prisoners. She says that each release of the photos makes her more resolute to make sure Kerry is not our next president. She said that most of her Mother's group and her relatives feel the same way. In fact some are much more pro violence against Iraqis who resist, fight and play games as prisoners.

She didn't vote for GW in the last election. She will this coming election. So will her friends.

The mass murder of 3,000 innocent Americans on 9/11/2001 was a wakeup call for this young woman and probably millions of her peers. You never see the al Qaeda pollster al Zogby addressing this huge bloc of voters.

[glaseatr]

I'm not shocked to see this number. I'd bet a dollar that the pollster took his sample from San Francisco and berkeley.

[Eastbound]

"Man on the Wedding Cake"

LOL! Apt description.

You may be right on the points, but I still hope for a national condemnation of the dems, even by the mainstream dems themselves.

[conservative in nyc]

Thanks.

There's probably 5 of us left if you don't count Staten Island. And there still are some Reagan Democrats in the other outer boroughs. Manhattan is a cesspool of decrepit liberalism. If terrorist scum knocking down 7 buildings didn't change Manhattanites, nothing will.

[conservative in nyc]

You're right. I have been surprised by the number of women commentators not outraged by the idiotic things shown in those pictures.

I think one of the polls put the percentage of people who think the soldiers should have been court martialed in the 70s. I expect that number to drop a bit as the trials go on and beheadings continue. Paradoxically, this may be what President Bush needs most to worry about - a NASCAR dad and CON-nie mommy backlash - especially if the command isn't court martialed. I suspect at least the general will be.