ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[TomEwall]

Did you see the latest CA poll? Kerry up by 1.

[Qwinn]

"His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago."

What a stupid twit he is then. This is -awful- news for Kerry. Given the way the electoral college works, and given a near-tie in the overall popular vote, no candidate should want one more vote than is necessary in any given state that is already going his way. If Kerry's support is overly concentrated in a handful of states, as these numbers indicate, he's going to lose the electoral vote by a landslide. The fact that Bush is still maintaining a tie, with less support in his "lock" states, means he has -more- support than Kerry does in the battleground states.

Man, talk about spinning out of control.

Qwinn

[sport]

He means that kerry is a good liar.

He is aided and abeted by another liar that has no peer; the mainstream media.

[FA14]

The Keys for a sure GWB victory are...

1. Setting the premise (like now) about the economy...tout the robust growth *daily*..This is insane how bad the GWB camp has been at setting the premise on the US economy (it is what killed his father also)

2. Kill capture Al Zawairi and UBL before OCT.

3. Gas prices down to a National Avg of 1.45 by Oct 1st... 4. Continue to stress the steady leadership needed with the war on terrorism....keep taking the fight to the enemy...do not tie our military hands and turn soft..

5. Tout the economy.....tout the economy....

[ThinkDifferent]

Why, then, does President Bush see such HUGE crowds everywhere he goes and Kerry musters just a small, lackluster crowd?

Because Kerry is a non-entity. Nobody is excited about his candidacy, except for the fact that he's not Bush. Sadly, there's a decent chance that's all he needs.

[PatrickHenry]

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

Zobby is misunderstanding his own data. His figures, if we can believe them, 47 to 44, show a virtual tie -- and that's in a two man race without the Nader factor. If there are very few undecideds, then where in the world is Kerry going to find the votes to win? If it's now a tie (in irrelevant the popular vote) now, Nader will make the difference. And so will the improving economy. Iraq will be in Iraqi hands soon, so we won't be "occupiers" for very long. It will only get worse for Kerry.

Zogby doesn't discuss this, but Kerry's extra lead in states where he's already winning don't mean a thing. It's electoral votes that matter, not the popular vote. Zogby doesn't analyze the results in the Electoral College, presumably because he doesn't like what he sees there.

[TomEwall]

A democrat hasn't taken over 50% in 40 years. An incumbant president with a strong economy is very tough to beat. I can't remember when that's happened.

[sport]

Only a fool would vote for kerry but as bill cinton demonestrated, unfortunately, America has a lot of fools.

[boxsmith13]

actually unemployment was about 7.5% in 1980 headed up to 11% by the end of 1982. Today it is 5.6% and I expect it to be 5.3% by election day. the polls do look like 1980, jsut go check for yourself, but I do not expect Kerry to win by a Reagan style landslide.

Asfor 1996, what are you kidding? Clinton was10-15 points ahead of Dole and Dole never polled as well as Kerry is doing now.

I think Freeprs need to facethe fact that based on historical past elections, Bush is going to lose

I think the economy is strogn and getting stronger, but over50% of the public doesnt


there will be no third party candiadte, Nader is going no-where.

[Cold Heat]

This means that groups pay them to conduct polls and combined with the information Zogby has they can pick and choose who is polled.

I don't think anyone is faulting his polling expertise. Although, some of the questions often are misleading. He does that for the people who pay him.

Frankly, what is the issue here is the fact that he is calling the race before Kerry even wins the nomination!

And, all his personal calls have mostly been wrong.

He does not understand conservative voters and their motivations. A good example of that is the fact that many dems, of good moral character, will not vote for scary Kerry, because of the abortion and or gay issue.

[boxsmith13]

Carter got over 50%, about 50.5%

The country is more liberal today than it has been since 1964.

[FA14]

I can't see Kerry getting 320 EV....What States do you have him winning to get that?....I mean if Kerry wins it will be close....but I personally see GWB winning this Nov....

[TomEwall]

You make a good point. If Kerry is up by 17 in the blue states, but Bush only by 10 in the red, then, assuming Z's was correct that Kerry is ahead by 3 right now, if Bush pulled even then he'd be way ahead in the battleground states because Kerry would be giving away 7%.

Good catch!

[CharacterCounts]

A democrat hasn't taken over 50% in 40 years.

Also, Senators do not win presidential races (way too much political baggage). The only way a Senator can get the office today is if the incumbent does something stupid to lose the election.

There is another factor, Kerry simply does not have a likeable personality. Don't expect him to control the female vote like Clinton did.

[Ann Archy]

If W loses there will not be a SERIOUS Republican to run for years!! Why would ANY DECENT Republican put himself thru this?? After what they have seen W and Cheney go thru??

Every thing they do is critized....even breathing....mostly breathing.

[COEXERJ145]

Everyone should realize that boxsmith is nothing but a troll and DU infiltrator. Go back and read his posts. He trolls the threads about polls and posts nothing but anti-Bush, pro-Kerry replies.

boxsmith13

Member Since May 5, 2004

FA14

Member Since Mar 30, 2004

[boxsmith13]

If Kerry wins all Gore won, he'll have 260. Add 27 for FL, 20 for OH, 4 for NH and 5 for WV gets you to 316. I dont believe Kerry will win any southern states.

[cripplecreek]

To me it looks like people are getting overexcited over a poll result and ignoring the world around them. Look at how people feel about religion, abortion, gun control and affirmative action. The VAST majority of americans lean to the right on these issues. I can't believe they will ignore those issues and go about as far left as possible to vote for the Eddie Haskell candidate.

[TonyInOhio]

but i think Kerry will win about 320 evs and 53%

Let's fix that:

but i think hope and pray Kerry will win about 320 evs and 53%

Doesn't that fit you a little better?

Or is my assumption that you signed up five days ago to spread your little rays of sunshine here incorrect?

Perhaps a return trip to Dirty Underpants would find you in like company.

[oceanview]

Zogby hates Bush, both he and his brother hate him.

That said, its going to be a close election, we all know that. Gas prices have got to come down, alot of the negative sentiment about the economy comes from gas prices.

And there may well be some truths in Zogby's numbers - Kerry is going to win the Dem states by big numbers, because in those states, the hatred of the media for Bush has the most effect on the sheeple. And the demographic shifts taking place in those states are acute - most republicans are fleeing the northeast and california - which will make Kerry's margin of victory large in those states.

To be honest, I could see a repeat of 2000 - Kerry winning the popular vote because of large margins in the states he wins, Bush taking the electoral vote.