Help Is Wanted (It's officially no longer a jobless recovery)

The Wall Street Journal ^ | Monday, May 10, 2004

[presidio9]

With all the attention on Iraq, the blowout April jobs report barely made the front pages on the weekend. So allow us to mark the news as the official death of the "jobless recovery."

The allegedly "sluggish" economy has now created 867,000 new jobs since the beginning of 2004, 1.1 million since August. Jobs are coming back even in manufacturing, to the tune of 30,000 in the last two months. The civilian unemployment rate fell again to 5.6%, down from the June 2003 peak of 6.3% -- which is below the peak of 7.5% during the recession in the early 1990s, and below the 9.7% peak of the recession in the early 1980s.

These numbers are especially notable given the continuing increase in productivity. For months productivity gains were seen as a business substitute for new hiring, but not anymore. Overall business productivity climbed 4.5% in the first quarter, and by a whopping 5.9% in durable goods manufacturing.

If they follow their usual pattern, pessimists and partisans will now drop the "jobless recovery" line in favor of the "hamburger flipper" assertion. That is, they'll claim these new service" jobs aren't nearly as good as the old jobs in manufacturing that have gone to Mexico or China. Ergo, the middle-class is "vanishing."

Sorry, that's also phony spin. Economist David Malpass at Bear Stearns calculates that average hourly earnings in manufacturing in April were $15.24, or $16.08 with overtime. Average hourly earnings in all service jobs were a comparable $15.17. If you exclude the retail and leisure sectors, service jobs paid $17.25 on average. The better-paying categories -- in finance, information, professional services, education and health care -- have produced most of the new service jobs (574,000) in the past six months. To put it another way, those productivity gains are gradually making their way as pay increases into worker pocketbooks.

[RonF]

The obsolete jobs lost were gone by the last layoff. As far as well can tell, the current layoff was based on the CEO and the rest trying to make their stock options more valuable, or to position us for a sale.

[normy]

I just wonder what the skill of the manufacturer who earns 50,000 a year is and why he can't shop it around. I have a very blue collar skill that I can shop around and I make a good living using that skill.

It seems alot of people have been riding some kind of gravy train for a long time. Lets face it, a teacher, policeman, or fireman makes less than a button attacher at a radio manufacturing plant. The policeman has a skill he can shop to other cities, so do teachers and fireman. Most people in these profesions work other jobs also, not to make ends meet, but to have the extras people want.

Dock workers making $100,000 a year went on strike last year. Where I live a forklift driver makes about 9 per hour.

[Belisaurius]

Worst economy since Herbert Hoover, right?:)

[Sybeck1]

Kerry would only kill the recovery. Taxing the investors class surely will hurt. I mean how many poor people do you know that have offered jobs to someone.

[Penner]

If they follow their usual pattern, pessimists and partisans will now drop the "jobless recovery" line in favor of the "hamburger flipper" assertion. That is, they'll claim these new service" jobs aren't nearly as good as the old jobs in manufacturing that have gone to Mexico or China. Ergo, the middle-class is "vanishing."

The "pessimists" and "partisans" are correct. If the majority of these newly created "jobs" were full-time (real jobs) then Bush's re-election wouldn't be an issue.

[Lunatic Fringe]

How can you tell when the economy is doing well under a Republican?

The media stops talking about it...

[RipSawyer]

Thank you, it is as you say. I will never vote for another Democrat as long as I live but it is useless to pretend that all is coming up roses. The truth is the purchasing power of the average American is in decline, government statistics to the contrary notwithstanding. We will not win this election by dwelling in lala land.

[RipSawyer]

"I just wonder what the skill of the manufacturer who earns 50,000 a year is and why he can't shop it around."

Some jobs in manufacturing involve trade skills which are applicable in many other areas but some involve spending years to learn to do a job which has almost no relationship to anything recognizable to prospective employers in other areas. Some of those jobs take years to learn but are difficult to even describe in terms that can be understood by someone who has never worked in that type of industry.

"Lets face it, a teacher, policeman, or fireman makes less than a button attacher at a radio manufacturing plant."
This line displays either a lack of knowledge or a flippant disregard, I doubt there is a radio manufacturing plant remaining in the United States and there probably has never existed such a job as button attacher(with no other duties) and if it did I sincerely doubt that it paid more than the jobs you mention. I have a brother-in-law who retired as a crew chief from a fire department and his retirement income is more than I earn working full time.
It is true that there once were unionized manufacturing employees who were grossly overpaid but most of those jobs have been lost for some time already. Non-union manufacturing has never been highly paid and the trend recently has been to cut wages and benefits and insist on sweat shop conditions.

[normy]

Yes I was being a smart with the "button attacher" remark. yes I agree there are manufacturing jobs that are specific to the work required that may be useless in other fields.

I have lived in Seattle and Dallas. One is a union city one is not generally speaking. In Dallas a flag holder for a road construction company gets paid about 7.00 per hour, in Seattle its twice that. I worked on a survey crew and started out at 6.40 an hour and three years later made only 9.50 however I worked 50 to 60 hours a week, which is not that much really. In Seattle I started out at 13.50 non-union.

I understand the plight of the guy who has put 20 years into one company only to no longer be needed. However I have changed professions at least five times my wife three times since college. The market changes and demand changes for different skills. Those of us who have no choice but to change with the times not only survive, but get ahead. It makes no sense for me to complain about the economy because I have had to adjust many times. I know many people in the tele-com business, who's company went bankrupt, who went on to work in the Chili's corprate office or for Coke or Barney (the purple dinosaur)or Southwest Airlines. If those companies go under they will look elsewhere but they won't act like some company owes them something.

I worked as a sub-contractor for years until Mexicans took my work by doing things I didn't want to do. Is it their fault? No. Its my fault, I could either do what was asked or lose the job to someone who would. Instead I started my own business with nothing but a free promotional yellow page ad. It was scary but now I am glad I did it.

I feel for people who feel they have no where to turn but blaming the gov't isn't the answer. The answer is to adapt and overcome the situation. You may have to take two steps back to move three ahead but people do it all the time.

[Know your rights]

The truth is the purchasing power of the average American is in decline, government statistics to the contrary notwithstanding.

You have more accurate statistics?

[Know your rights]

Damned if I see any of these jobs in my area.

There have always been substantial regional variations in employment.

[Havoc]

Prepare to be called a lazy whiner. The free traitors can't let pesky little facts stand in the way...

[Toddsterpatriot]

No logic, please.

It's all Bush's fault. We're sending all the good jobs to Mexico and China.

[Sybeck1]

I remember seeing Howard Dean on MTP before he got out of the race. He kept saying he could guarantee more jobs but the downside would be the prices at Walmart would be higher. Call me stingy or whatever but I enjoy a bargain, and being gainfully employed will buy from foreign companies to save a buck. My area of west TN and North MS is booming now on new jobs. The wages might be lower than up north but remember the cost of living is lower here. $414 property taxes a year isn't too bad on 1100 square foot home.

[RipSawyer]

"You have more accurate statistics?"

I have the evidence of sixty years of my own observations which have taught me not to believe government statistics. I know what young people used to be able to do in this area and what they can afford to do now. I know how much money my family lived on when I was growing up and I know what it takes to support a family now. I could NOT care less what the government statistics say.

[Know your rights]

Of course, national averages can't be expected to apply to every area of the nation.

[RipSawyer]

"Of course, national averages can't be expected to apply to every area of the nation."

That is why I am preparing to move to Lake Wobegon where, according to Garrison Keilor, "all the children are above average" ;0)

[CWOJackson]

Senator Daschle was admitted to the Betty Ford Clinic last night where he and pat buchanan remain on suicide watch.

[RipSawyer]

"I feel for people who feel they have no where to turn but blaming the gov't isn't the answer."

Maybe not, but I agree with Ronald Reagan that "the government is not the answer, the government is the problem". I don't want the government to solve my problems, I want the government to get the hell out of the damned way.
I have made many changes, including running my own business for twenty years until technology changes caused most of my customer base to shut down, at which time I turned to other things. I know how to do a lot of things.
I simply do not buy the line that everything is rosy and we have the highest standard of living ever seen. If it is true that the average income is rising then an awful lot of it must be going to the very few at the top because a huge number of working people are making do on less.
I am pleased to say that I am debt free, including house, land and vehicles etc. but most of those I know are in debt to their limit.

[CyberCowboy777]

We could have unemployment rates at 4% and the average service job @ $18.00 an hour and still the 4% would complain and the "under $18.00" would piss and moan about the cost of health care or some other issue.

And if a (R) is in the White House those few will always have the loudest voice.

Bottom line - Most hard working Americans are making money and living thier lives.