Posted on 05/07/2004 8:49:08 AM PDT by knighthawk
GLORIA Arroyo is almost certain to become the first incumbent Philippines president to retain office since the ousting of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos when 42 million voters go to the polls on Monday.
Short of a disaster - which, if this week's top-level predictions are correct, could still occur, and include anything from a Madrid-style terror attack to a military coup - Ms Arroyo's lead in the latest opinion polls appears to be unassailable. Her main rival, Fernando Poe, will hold a last rally in central Makati City tonight in an attempt to rejuvenate a campaign that has virtually come to a standstill.
The Philippines' most popular movie star and a close friend of deposed former president Joseph Estrada, Mr Poe was considered a certainty for the Malacanang Palace when he was endorsed by most of the opposition coalition in December.
But he has been hampered by a split opposition, with much internal support and funding going to another outside chance, former Estrada police chief Panfilo Lacson.
The last respected pre-election opinion poll, that of the Social Weather Station, is due out today but is not expected to differ greatly from other polls, including Asia Pulse, released this week, which showed Ms Arroyo had a six-point lead over Poe.
That poll, taken last month, would translate to about 2 million votes for the incumbent president.
Ms Arroyo is all but guaranteed another 2 million votes with the endorsement late on Thursday of Christian group Iglesia ni Cristo. The cult-like group, which traditionally delivers the votes of most supporters to the candidate it endorses, had earlier in the campaign been expected to support Mr Poe.
After the decision, Arroyo campaign spokesman Michael Defensor said the opposition would need a miracle to win.
"If this were a 15-round boxing match, the President would win by a knockout and not by a split decision," Mr Defensor said.
Ms Arroyo was equally optimistic. "It looks like we will win," she told a delegation of party-list representatives and civil society supporters earlier this week. "The only thing that needs to be done is to make the election credible."
But Ms Arroyo's supporters remain fearful a disaster could still befall their campaign, warning that terror attacks and even a coup are being planned in an attempt to unseat her.
National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales claimed some retired army generals were plotting with Mr Poe to create unrest that would end with a takeover.
He said the arrest last weekend of two militants planning to bomb the election commission was not the work of international or national terrorists.
"They were politically motivated bombs," he said. "They had the right materials but they were not connected to explode. They were there to send a political message."
He said these plans were separate to the broader threats caused by The Philippines' support for the US war on terror.
Ms Arroyo cancelled plans this week to campaign in Mindanao, the region most affected by the terrorism of the country's two main domestic separatist groups, and also abandoned plans for a mass rally.
House Speaker Jose de Venecia said that militants, thought to be from the Abu Sayyaf group, were still planning a large-scale attack.
But the Poe camp accused the Government of using fear of terrorism to gather a sympathy vote.
The constitution prevents presidents seeking a second six-year term, but Ms Arroyo has avoided the ban because she was not elected to office.
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