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Rasmussen 45%-45% Tie Bush Approval 52%
www.rasmussenreports.com ^ | May 2, 2004 | Rasmussen

Posted on 05/02/2004 9:32:48 AM PDT by Owen

Fluctuation within MOE continues. A slight erosion in Bush support for the week as a whole. That erosion is also within the MOE and thus there can be no confidence even in the trend. The absolute numbers mean nothing because no one knows what accurate sampling is.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; elections; polls; rasmussen
The Fallujah news may have eroded a point or two from Bush, but as of this morning it appears all that reporting has been in error.
1 posted on 05/02/2004 9:32:49 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen
Kerry is going to get his 45-47% votes from the broken glass Democrats. Bush has to meke sure he doesn't get the Independent vote to make up the difference. I think he will be able to do that in the end.
2 posted on 05/02/2004 10:55:04 AM PDT by Russ
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To: Russ
What you say is generally true. Yelling at Democrats is pointless. Their hatred is unshakeable. The path to victory is to G O T V, and focusing G O T V only only the rightwing will lose.

We have to appeal to the middle and we have to appeal to those segments not clearly, overwhelmingly Democrat. For example, the black vote is somewhat monolithic -- though one hopes Condi Rice could peel off a percent or two. No more than that. (A percent or two of the black vote peeled off Kerry would be enormous). But even if she could do that, Kerry would still get 88% of the black vote. Bush got only 10% in 2000.

It is with Hispanics that opportunity exists. Recent Gallup numbers showed Bush over 40% of Hispanics. He got only 30% in 2000. That is a group not irretrievably tied to the Democrats. There are votes to be found there. We need to find them.
3 posted on 05/02/2004 12:28:42 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen
Rasmussen tie = +3 or 4 for Bush, which appears to be where we are, so I'd expect the "tie" to continue.
4 posted on 05/02/2004 12:59:18 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall
I don't think we know where we are in absolute terms. I think we are confident Bush has done well and increased his support since Kerry locked up the nomination, but we know nothing more. We don't know who has more support than the other.

We probably know one other thing. Not enough Freepers have called the campaign to volunteer to work in battleground states. Voting Isn't Enough.
5 posted on 05/02/2004 1:18:02 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen
We probably know one other thing. Not enough Freepers have called the campaign to volunteer to work in battleground states. Voting Isn't Enough.


In Western Wisconsin, the campaign training session in February was 5x what was expected. We had a line out the door and had to open extra areas of the room used.

Phone banks are working and have been for 2 months.

Volunteers for ticket sign-ups for a rally May 7th featuring the POTUS equaled 3 people for every couple of hours for a 4-day/5-8 hrs/day effort at one venue and there were 3-4 other ticket venues that I am aware of. We fielded 2 calls on my 2-hr shift from people who wanted tickets but lived too far to come in for the sign-up.

I have no idea if any of the Wisconsin volunteers are FReepers, but the Republican base is out in force and so are former Democrat voters in every demographic.

I know volunteers who are being told that various jobs are filled days before they are needed.

Even our moribund County party is being reinvigorated.

It is truly amazing and inspiring. And it is a lot of fun. I worked today w/people who ranged from 19 to 72.
6 posted on 05/02/2004 2:48:30 PM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: reformedliberal
Good job! Well done! Outstanding.

I live in Utah, which is as safe as states come. Not much point volunteering here. I am making arrangements to fly to Reno election day and pitch in there. Nevada is a battleground. It was close last time.
7 posted on 05/02/2004 4:58:46 PM PDT by Owen
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