Specter Wins 51-49 Republican Senatorial Primary: live thread

4/27/2004 | self

[rudy45]

My apologies if a thread already exists. I did a search on "Toomey" and found nothing.

I arrived at my polling area (suburban Philadelphia) at 6:45 am to hand out palm cards. The weather is terrific this morning, but turnout (I thought) was light (I had to leave at 9:15, but will be back).

Actually, I have a good feeling about Pat.

[Shooter 2.5]

Your article already makes me understand you are against the NRA and have never supported them.

If the GOA would spend their time getting results instead of acting like little yappy puppies, they might actually accomplish something. They don't.

The GOA numbers have shrunk down to 300,000. Even the Citizen's Committee is double that. They had better pass some sort of pro-gun legislation and quit whining about the NRA before they disappear .

[old and tired]

Corbett has refused to say his opinion about homosexual marriage and cloning.

Castor is a conservative Republican who has gone on the record supporting the second ammendment and traditional marriage. Castor is endorsed by the Pro-Life Union of SE PA.

Also, Corbett is being endorsed in state by RINOs. One of the Republican state committeeman sent a letter to Montco Republicans telling them that Bruce Castor should be avoided because he was unapologetically pro-life and pro-gun. He then went on to say vote for Specter and Corbett - they're moderates and know how to listen to the diverse opionions that are held in Montgomery County.

[Physicist]

WHY on earth has the NRA endorsed SPECTER????

Quid pro quo, I'm guessing. Specter voted against the Assault Weapon Ban this time around. (Specter was one of the swing votes that set up the ban in the first place.) I'll bet there was some sort of backroom deal where he exchanged his vote for the endorsement.

If so, it works for me. Had Specter voted for the AWB once again, I would have voted Democrat against him in November, assuming he won the primary. As it stands, I'll hold my nose and vote for him if he makes it that far.

[ContemptofCourt]

Praying for a political candidate to win, and then saying that if he wins it was due to prayer, and if he loses it is because god has other plans for him, is akin to praying for the Eagles to win the SB. I think that God has bigger issues to deal with.

[AuH2ORepublican]

In order for *any* Republican to win statewide in PA against a Montgomery County Democrat like Joe Hoeffel, he must win votes from blue-collar Democrats (who are disproportionately pro-life Catholics like Toomey) not only in the Pittsburgh area, but in the "T" as well. Arlen Specter is incapable of winning those votes, since he is pro-abortion and anti-gun and thus have nothing to offer those voters (and if they wanted to vote for someone who will raise taxes and toe the union line, they'd surely vote for the Democrat). Pat Toomey, on the other hand, has been elected and reelected in the blue-collar Lehigh Valley, centered in Allentown and Bethlehem, with similar demographics to the Pittsburgh-area districts held by Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy and to the one held by Rick Santorum before moving to the Senate (in fact, Toomey's district is less Republican than Hart's or Murphy's, although less Democrat than Santorum's old districts). Pat Toomey knows how to get blue-collar Democrat votes, and will beat Hoeffel just about everywhere outside of Philly and its close-in suburbs (well, Hoeffel will carry a few inner-city areas, but he is so brazenly anti-gun that he will get blown away in most of the "T"). Pat Toomey will win the general election, and given the fact that he's both more conservative and more electable than Specter, the choice is clear.

Some people point to Specter's easy victory in 1998 as evidence that he is more "electable," but Specter did not face a well-financed Democrat challenge that year, so it is silly to even look at those numbers. So let's look at the 1992 election, the last time Specter faced a strong challenge.

Specter won with 49.10% in the state, to Lynn Yeakel's 46.33%. Specter was below 50% overall even though he received 39.34% of the vote in Philadelphia (source: http://www.seventy.org/stats/1992GeneralResults.htm), which is a ridiculously high percentage for a "Republican" in a city in which Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by 68.16% to 20.90% in 1992 and in which Gore beat George W. Bush by 80.04% to 17.99% in 2000. It is risible to presume that Specter would be able to win such a high percentage in Philly this time around, since (i) Philadelphia has trended even more Democrat than it was in 1992, (ii) there is more political polarization today than back then, so there is less ticket-splitting among Philadelphia Democrats, and (iii) Joe Hoeffel is from Abington Township, just across the Montgomery County border, and represents most of Northeast Philadelphia (which is the least heavily RAT part of the city) in Congress. The same holds true in the close-in Philadelphia suburbs of Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, in which Specter won 54.40%, 53.17% and 50.72%, respectively, in 1992 (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1992.html), but have trended Democrat through the years and in 2000 these counties gave George W. Bush 43.81%, 42.66% and 46.29%, respectively. Outside of Philly and its 3 adjoining suburbs, Arlen Specter got only 49.97% in 1992, a pitiful percentage for a Pennsylvania Republican and much lower than Santorum's totals in his 2 statewide victories or even than Fischer's and Bush's losing statewide races.

Nowadays, because of demographic and political changes in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties, Republicans can't carry Pennsylvania without getting at least 55% of the vote in the Pittsburgh area and in the "T." And for that, Republicans need to not only turn out their conservative base, but get votes from blue-collar Democrats, who are generally liberal on economic issues but pro-life, pro-gun and pro-military. Arlen Specter can't do either of those things, but Pat Toomey can, as he has proven in his blue-collar Democrat district in the Lehigh Valley. And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him. While Bush and Toomey can get their share of suburban Philly votes because of issues such as national security, our road to victory in PA in 2004 goes through places like Allentown and Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and Erie and the Pittsburgh suburbs, not through Philadelphia and its RINO-infested close-in suburbs. President Bush would benefit if Toomey is nominated because it would guarantee overwhelming turnout from conservatives, while a Specter candidacy would just bring out pro-abortion RINO voters who would likely vote for Kerry.

So the choice is clear. If Pennsylvania Republicans want to win the 2004 elections, they need to support Pat Toomey in his primary challenge to Arlen Specter. GO, PAT, GO!

[Wolfstar]

I would trust Rick (for now) with an important vote in the Senate, but his endorsements are an empty noise for me.

Not being from Pennsylvania, I don't have a dog in this fight. But your line of thinking makes zero common sense. You trust a guy with something of vast significance for your state and nation, which is his vote in the United States Senate? But you don't trust him on something vastly less significant, which is his endorsement of a candidate? OK, whatever floats your boat (typed while shaking my head in wonder).

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

is akin to praying for the Eagles to win the SB. I think that God has bigger issues to deal with.

I certainly agree that God has bigger issues to deal with than the Eagles and whether they win football games, but I think based on the issues, this particular election is important enough for God and his followers to be praying about. I think a Toomey victory will reshape the GOP, for the better, and therefore reshape America, and I do believe that God cares about that.

[Physicist]

how's the weather look out on the quad?

As sunny as a Baghdad afternoon. I even left my umbrella at home, so as to scare up some rain.

[Shooter 2.5]

When the endorsement came out, Toomey was losing badly to Specter.
You going to have to understand that the NRA gives millions of dollars to candidates all the way down to the City councilman level.

Reality says the primary election isn't over yet. If he wins today, will you support Specter in order to keep the majority in the Senate?

[Born Conservative]

What kind of promises did Specter make to the NRA to get their support?

I received my "America's 1st Freedom" mag yesterday, and there was an insert asking for my vote for Snarlin' Arlen. How convenient that the magazine would arrive the day before the primary...

[Elle Bee]

no visible front to the west?

I think a little rain and Arland may be all wet

I think it's long tome this Janus bit hte 'Magic Bullet'

.

[old and tired]

Taubenberger has had limited visibility at this end of the Gerrymandered district.

Here too. If Taubenberger wins, it will be the Catholic (pro-life) vote. Other than my own, I have seen exactly three Taubenberger yard signs. I'm hoping that the massive distribution of pro-life voters guides to the Catholic Churches puts Taubenberger over the top.

[Francisco]

Your article already makes me understand you are against the NRA and have never supported them.

"My" article?! My name is not Dimitri Vassilaros, nor do I write for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

you are against the NRA and have never supported them

I am a member of the NRA, and have financially supported them for years, including their "special" fund raisers in their various appeals for funds. Never again.

Gun Owners of America - "The only no-compromise gun lobby in Washington." -Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)

[Mr. Lucky]

No. Pro-life judicial nominees have no chance of confirmation if Specter is chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which he will be if re-elected.

[jmc813]

If he wins today, will you support Specter in order to keep the majority in the Senate?

I'm in Jersey, but if I were in PA, I'd vote for Hoeffel. A Kyl led judiciary committee is infinitely preferable to one led by (R)len. Besides, we're going to pick up a minumum of three Senate seats in November anyway. We can afford a Dem win in this case.

[Shooter 2.5]

Oh oh. I just checked that website on Toomey's rating and he doesn't have a rating as good as Specter. I'm purposely not using NRA or GOA websites.
http://www.awbansunset.com/house_pa.html

Can you give me some links to support Toomey's pro-gun rating?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Reality says the primary election isn't over yet. If he wins today, will you support Specter in order to keep the majority in the Senate?

A better question is that; if Toomey wins, will you and the NRA admit to making a mistake and support Toomey, or will you take your ball and go home?

[Shooter 2.5]

YOUR Article that you posted. Yeah, yeah, sure. You supported the NRA at one time.

Now prove to me the GOA has ever passed a single, solitary pro-gun Bill by itself. They should change their motto to "No Results".

[Shooter 2.5]

Yes, as long as the dem doesn't have a pro-gun rating better than Toomey.

Actually, I was suprised to find that Specter has a better rating than Toomey from that AWB website. From what I had been reading so far on FR, I thought he had a much higher rating.

[eureka!]

Bump for later...


GoPatGo. W will carry the state on his own merits...