Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Zarqawi dead?

OPINION: I don't think so.

Shish Kabobs sound absolutely delicious!

Al-Zawahri 'al-Qaeda's real leader'
16:48 AEST Sat May 1 2004

AFP - A former Egyptian doctor-turned-practitioner of Islamic holy war has emerged as the hands-on operational leader of the al-Qaeda terror network, reducing Osama bin Laden to a figurehead role, a top US counter-terrorism official said.

Cofer Black, a former chief al-Qaeda hunter at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who now coordinates counter-terrorism activities at the State Department, warned that Ayman al-Zawahri, a man associated with radical Islamic causes since the 1960s, "tends to be more operational than Osama bin Laden".

"I think Zawahri represents more of a threat comparatively between the two men," Black told CNN television.

"Zawahri is certainly in the field and operating, has lines of communication to his subordinates and is planning attacks as we speak."

He described bin Laden, the mastermind of the September 11, 2001 attacks in the US as a "figurehead" leader increasingly out of touch with his followers.

"He's very defensive. He knows we're after him. And he spends most of his time hiding from us," Black said of bin Laden.

Warning that both men still were capable of mounting terrorist operations, Black called Zawahri "a significant threat" but pointedly refrained from giving the same characterisation to bin Laden.

He compared the al-Qaeda founder to ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein who had been hiding in an underground hole cut off from the outside world before US soldiers captured him last December.

As many as 70 per cent of al-Qaeda's leadership have been captured or killed as a result of the US-led war on terror launched in the aftermath of September 11 in Afghanistan and other parts of the world, according to US intelligence officials.

More than 3,400 of the group's lower-ranking operatives and supporters have also been detained or otherwise neutralised, these officials insist.

But a report on worldwide terrorism patterns released by the State Department acknowledged that al-Qaeda probably still has several thousand members and associates it can rely on.

Following the 2001 ouster of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and the closure of al-Qaeda's training camps in the country, "al-Qaeda has dispersed in small groups across South Asia, South-east Asia, and the Middle East and probably will attempt to carry out future attacks against US interests," the report warned.

Finally updated my webpage here to reflect and honor TM

Good article Karl -- thanks.

url?

"funds generated by the UN's Iraqi "Oil for Food" program diverted to al-Qaeda and used to fund terrorism around the world"

This had better mean the end to the UN! This treachery has to be repeated over and over for the sheep to absorb it.

1. Not that I have come across. It is my presumption from what I have been told that the search will probably be perpetual and we will never hear of it publicly like we did last Christmas holiday season.

2. Nice list. It is too short imho. The list I have seen is of 100 cities/metro areas.

Just completed a preliminary examination of the tactics used in Iraq by the Al Sadr militia and its terrorist cohorts to begin this recent uprising.

Although it happened in Iraq, the tactics are pretty much interchangeable, and it is noteworthy for the purposes of Homeland Security.

1) Enemy conducted intelligence and recon missions of areas they intended to strike well in advance of combat operations.

2) Enemy avoided detection and crossed the area of vulnerability in the attack by infiltrating into targeted areas disguised as civilians. Arms, ammunition, and explosives were pre-positioned before the uprising.

3) Enemy combat operations began disguised as a nationwide (Iraqi) civil protest to a percieved threat, which maximized the element of surprise.

4) Enemy maintained relative superiority by maximizing the element of surprise for the initial assault period, and when tactical initiative was beginning to be lost, they orchestrated counter-attacks on supply and logistics lines of American and Coalition troops to relieve pressure on their forces.

5)When the enemy lost tactical advantage and relative superiority, they began to take hostages for insurance.

6)Enemy retreated from armed confrontation and entered into a defensive seige posture, which is still ongoing.

Analysis- US Forces performed brilliantly in blunting this offensive, and the enemy is on the defensive.

Future applications:

The enemy used classic special operations tactics to get on target fast, avoid the area of vulnerability, and keep the tactical initiative in the battle, but superb US tactics and training blunted the offensive and relegated them to a seige. Enemy losses were 10-1 in the US favor.

The tactics of intelligence gathering, infiltration, and disguised initial assault (by feigning a protest) are applicable to Homeland Security because they could be adapted to use in any attack.

regards

J/M

Wow...interesting timing on their need for extra help in these cities. May make it easier to track the unusual incidents based on this list.

Didn't the Red Cross create controversy after 9/11 with their plans for distribution/non-distribution of funds received from the enormous amount of donations they received? If so they should have a significant amount of extra $.

Absolutely chilling!! Probably a large number of people would let these men into their homes.

Saving and printing for liberal, anti-war, nay-saying, sheeple, acquaintances!! I can barely stomach people who are blinded by the left, so I don't call any of these people "friends".....most people that I know have found the truth and have a clue. The others I considered fun to prove their theories wrong by using facts....but in these times I just don't have the time for these types.

Hopefully they are doing a thorough investigation to find out those answers. I recall a 911 problem in NY last month, info. was posted here. I wouldn't doubt that there will be additional stories about this type of sabotage on emergency network communications in other areas.

I checked out Greenbrier too. The room rates are $624-$854 per night. Plus a $27 surcharge per person per night. Wow! I won't be staying there anytime soon. lol TMGrasshoppers

Seven Dead, Including at Least 3 Americans, in Attack on Saudi Oil Refinery

The Associated Press Published: May 1, 2004

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - Gunmen opened fire Saturday at an oil refinery co-owned by Exxon Mobil and the Saudi company SABIC in northwestern Saudi Arabia, killing at least three Americans, two Britons, an Australian and a Saudi, company officials and diplomats said.

Interior Ministry officials said three attackers also were killed. The attack killed at least three American engineers working for oil services company ABB, according to company spokesman Bjorn Edlund, based in Zurich, Switzerland. He did not identify them.

The European diplomats said two Britons, an Australian and a member of the Saudi national guard also were killed. A police captain was seriously wounded, they said on condition of anonymity.

A U.S. Embassy official confirmed Americans were among the casualties - though the official would not say if they were dead or wounded. The last attack that killed Americans in Saudi was in May 2003, when eight Americans were among 34 people killed in a series of coordinated suicide bombings in the capital, Riyadh.

In London, the Foreign Office said it could not confirm British deaths, but said British diplomats were traveling to the scene.

The Saudi Interior Ministry said three suspected terrorists and several Saudis and foreigners were killed in the shooting. In its statement, the ministry did not say how many civilians were killed or injured in the attack in Yanbu, 550 miles west of Riyadh, or provide details on nationalities of the foreign casualties.

"Four individuals entered the offices of a Saudi contractor and randomly shot at Saudi and foreign employees," the Interior Ministry said in describing the attack in a statement quoting an unidentified official. It did not identify the contractor.

The assailants fled into residential neighborhoods of Yanbu and commandeered cars, "but security forces were able to kill three of them and injure and capture the fourth." Earlier, diplomats said two suspected attackers were killed - a bomber who blew himself up and a second suspect killed by police. The ministry statement made no mention of a suicide bombing.

The U.S. Embassy official said the U.S. consulate in the Red Sea port city of Jiddah was following up the issue with Saudi authorities. Yanbu is about 220 miles northwest of Jiddah, also along the Red Sea.

A Yanbu resident said by telephone that police had set up checkpoints throughout the city, and that some of the Westerners involved in the oil industry in Yanbu were unable to reach their workplaces because of the heavy police presence.

Saudi Arabia relies heavily on 6 million expatriate workers, including about 30,000 Americans, to run its oil industry and other sectors. The Yanbu region is home to oil refineries and petrochemical plants that employ many foreigners....... Link Here

Info. regarding the sun's image in post 1324...other celestial happenings in addition to eclipse.

Coronal Holes:

A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole could reach Earth as early as May 3rd. Image credit: SOHO Extreme UV Imager

More Cruise illnesses.....

Passengers Sickened On Norwegian Cruise Line Ship Norovirus Suspected In Some Illnesses

POSTED: 7:10 pm EDT April 30, 2004 UPDATED: 7:19 pm EDT April 30, 2004

PHILADELPHIA -- What was supposed to be the vacation of a lifetime is turning out to be a nightmare for many Delaware Valley passengers.

A Norwegian Crown cruise ship left Philadelphia last Sunday bound for Bermuda. The ship is expected to return this weekend, but many of the passengers will not be as healthy as they were when they started their journey.

People started getting sick within days of shoving off. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is testing the ship to confirm their suspicion that the passengers were sickened by the Norovirus, formerly known as the Norwalk virus.

But that wasn't the only problem on the ship. Paul and Becky Montini were among those affected by problems on the ship.

"He had been sick and having headaches from almost the first that they went out and he went down to the infirmary Monday night or Tuesday morning, I think. There was about 50 or 60 people there, he said," said Helene Montini, Paul's sister.

Montini called his family Tuesday from the Norwegian Crown. Montini said people were sick, had been confined to their cabins and were put up in hotel rooms once they got to Bermuda. Montini's sister said he was most concerned about his pregnant wife, Becky.

"There was a very foul odor and it smelled like fuel -- just the headaches, the constant headaches. His wife is pregnant -- she's five-months pregnant," Helene Montini said.

Norwegian Cruise Line says, and the CDC confirms, that 33 passengers and two crewmembers came down with gastrointestinal problems. The CDC suspects the passenger were infected with the Norovirus, which cause vomiting and diarrhea for up to 48 hours.

Paul's problem wasn't viral. He suffered severe headaches from fumes in his cabin. Norwegian Cruise Lines said damage to a fuel ventilator affected 50 cabins and 63 passengers suffered headaches and nausea. Three of those passengers received medical treatment.

Norwegian Cruise Lines has compensated cooperating passengers.

A CDC representative said Norovirus is one of the most common causes of gastrointestinal problems. It shows up everywhere from schools to day cares. You usually only hear about it on cruise lines because they are required to report it.......

Link

Volcanoes....Earthquakes....Comets

Shiveluch Volcano Active Again (Russia)

16:46 2004-04-30

Ash has been ejected 2,000-5,000 meters into the air from the crater of the Shiveluch volcano in Kamchatka (peninsula in Russia's Far East).

The Kamchatka Seismologic Expedition told RIA Novosti on Friday that the most powerful ejection of ash (over 5,000 meters in the air) occurred at 7:24 a.m. local time and was accompanied by an earthquake that lasted five and a half minutes. The Alaskan Volcanological Observatory provided satellite photographs that clearly show an ash trail stretching over 40 kilometers to the northeast.

Seismic stations registered series of earthquakes and volcanic tremors near the active dome.

After a long period of quiet, the activity of the northernmost active volcano of Kamchatka (Shiveluch is 3,283 meters tall) increased in January 2004.

Currently, the volcano presents no threat to the populated areas of the peninsula. Ash ejections and trails do seriously threaten aviation, as particles of volcanic ash may cause malfunctions in airplane turbines. Therefore, sudden ejections complicate air navigation. Link

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Volcano Raises Burning Questions (New Guinea)

10:08 AM Apr. 29, 2004 PT

Lava has begun flowing from a dormant volcano on Papua New Guinea's island of Bougainville in the South Pacific, raising concerns for the safety of nearby villages, officials said Thursday.

Volcanologists have flown to Mount Bagana in central Bougainville to inspect the volcano in an effort to assess whether the lava flow indicates a possible eruption, said an emergency service official in the country's capital, Port Moresby.

Villagers in the area reported that lava had begun flowing from the mountain, the official said. The nearest known village is Torokina, about five miles from 5,740-foot Mount Bagana. Link

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Taiwan Quake Kills Two May 1, 2004 - 10:05PM

Two people died when an earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale rocked Taiwan, officials said.

The victims were found in a van, crushed by a large rock rolling down a mountain at the Taroko Gorge, a popular tourist spot in eastern Hualien County, according to officials at the county's fire department.

The tremor hit at 3:56 pm (1756 AEST) with an epicentre 7.4 kms west of Hsincheng in Hualien and 17.8 kms underground, according to the Seismology Centre.

Taiwan, lying near the junction of two tectonic plates, is prone to earthquakes. The island suffered its worst in a century on September 21, 1999, when a quake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale struck central Taiwan, leaving 2,400 people dead. A powerful quake with a magnitude of 6.6 shook Taiwan on December 10, 2003, but caused only minor injuries and damage in some southern cities. Link

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Comets

Excerpted......Total lunar eclipses usually occur every couple of years. But planetary dynamics mean that we are right in a splurge of them: there were two in 2003 and there will be a fourth on Oct. 28.

Meanwhile, two major comets, both of them spotted only within the last few years, will be sliding into position for good viewing from Earth as they race past us on their elliptical track around the sun.

They are C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) and C/2002 T7 (LINEAR), whose strange names are derived from their discoverers; two U.S. robot telescopes that scour the heavens for space rocks. Comets have long been considered the harbingers of great events, of famine, earthquakes, war, the death and birth of kings.

Astrophysicists find them just as fascinating, as the primitive material of frozen gas, dust and rock left from the building of the solar system some 4.6 billion years ago. The last comet to be visible to the naked eye from Earth was Hale-Bopp, which put on a spectacular show in 1997.

Comet NEAT will be at its closest on May 6, coming within 48,020,000 kilometers (30,013,000 miles) of Earth, while LINEAR's nearest approach will be on May 19, at 39,790,000 kms (24,870,000 miles).

These are the preludes for June 8, when Venus, the solar system's second planet, will be directly aligned between the Earth and the sun. Venus will be visible as a tiny black dot crawling over the face of the sun and for that reason, proper eye protection is an absolute must. "This 'Venus Transit' happened last time in 1882," said Richard West of the European Southern Observatory (ESO). "It now provides a vast public in Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia the opportunity for a unique experience." Link

Great webpage.