SurveyUSA: Specter/Toomey Tied

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/26/04

[Dales]

Specter 48%, Toomey 48%. 4.6% MoE.

[AmishDude]

No 'fense, KQQL, but you have all the optimism of Bob Novak!

[Dales]

That effect on the others will only work if we put Toomey over the top both tomorrow and in November.

If we fail to win in November, then they will be even bolder.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"CA: Boxer 54%, Jones 34% "

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As for the California poll, a 54%-34% lead for Boxer over Jones among *registered* voters (including "leaners"!) does not exactly mean that Boxer can mail this one in. Boxer's hard support is probably well below 50%, and that 12% "undecided" figure is in truth much higher, since someone who is "leaning" towards Boxer but has not yet decided to vote for such a known commodity (she's been in the Senate for 12 years already) is fairly likely to flip to consider voting for Jones as they learn more about him. Frankly, Boxer should have a higher lead than that in that kind of poll.

I don't know if Bill Jones will win, but I think it will be close.

[thingumbob]

I agree on both counts ....regards.

[Redbob]

I disagree: the very worst scenario would be if Toomey beats Specter, then Toomey is beaten by some Dim dweeb.

The media then would shout from the rooftops how Pa wa s "rejecting conservative values" and "conservatives can't win".

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

I don't know if Bill Jones will win, but I think it will be close.

That's the problem with the recall, here PA has a choice, and with the Senate we had a choice, and the RINO won. However, I am not as unreasonable as some of the Specterites on here would have lurker's believe, I will gladly cast my vote for Jones, even though he's wrong on immigration. That is a clear contrast to Boxer, one of the worst Demo Senators.

But here the people of PA have a unique opportunity, and they deserve our unconditional support.

I think I speak for most Conservatives when I say I have already forgiven Santorum and Bush, but they better have alot of great things to say for Toomey if he wins. I am a forgiver, glad to do so in victory, but I have the memory of an elephant.

[KQQL]

yes, Qpoll has Spector ahead, but SurveyuSA has it tied, we will know soon enough which pollster was right or wrong.

[KQQL]

non taken:)

[counterpunch]

The point is that realclearpolitics.com ought to be called realLIBERALpolitics.com.

The only thing reliable about them is that they will always choose the most favorable poll for the liberal to publish.

It may also be noteworthy that the Jones-Boxer poll was conducted by the LA Slimes.

[Carry_Okie]

I also fully expect Republicans to pick up several seats in November, including Boxer's in California.

So far it doesn't look good.

[BillyBoy]

WOO-HOO!!!

To any conservatives STILL considering Arlen Specter -- here's a little reminder of how he REALLY feels about you:

EXCERTS FROM:

ARLEN SPECTER PRESIDENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENT SPEECH

MARCH 30, 1995

“Today, I offer my ideas, my experience, and my energy to the American people -- to lead our great nation into the 21st Century as the next President of the United States.”

“In 1996, I intend to win the other house -- the White House – with [these] commitments to America: to reduce violent crime; to reform health care… to provide strong leadership in international affairs; to champion tolerance and freedom, including a woman's right to choose. These commitments embody my personal core beliefs … we must get government out of our bedrooms”

“Today I have outlined goals and priorities I see for America. Even though we have this historic opportunity for these achievements, there are those in our party who would lead us down a different path and squander this unique moment in our nation's history -- by using our political capital -- to pursue a radical social agenda that would end a woman's right to choose and mandate school prayer”.

“When Pat Robertson says there is no constitutional doctrine of separation between Church and State, I say he is wrong. The First Amendment freedom of religion is as important today as when the Bill of Rights was written . It is not Christian, or religious, or Judeo-Christian to bring God into politics; or to advocate the intolerance and exclusion. We don't need holy wars, we need tolerance and simple humanity”.

“When Ralph Reed says a pro-choice Republican isn't qualified to be our President, I say the Republican Party will not be blackmailed. I and millions of other pro-choice Republicans -- will not be disenfranchised. I want to keep the Republican Party focused on the vital economic and foreign policy issues -- and leave moral issues such as abortion to the conscience of the individual. I believe abortion is an issue to be decided by women.”

“I will lead the fight to strip the strident anti-choice language from the Republican National platform -- and replace it with language that respects the diversity of opinion within our own Party on this issue. Let me say it as plainly as I can: Neither this nation -- nor this Party can afford a Republican candidate -- so captive to the demands of the intolerant right.”

“Everything I learned about opportunity, hard work, and sacrifice, I learned from my father. A peasant in his native land. My father had no formal education -- and my mother left school in the 8th grade to help support her family. My brother, my two sisters and I have shared in the American dream because of our educational opportunities – so I am very, very deeply committed to education and economic opportunity for all Americans. And as much as I learned from my father, -- everything I learned about compassion and family values, I learned from my mother, Lillie Specter. It was my mother who would tell me that in America, I could be anything I wanted to be -- even President.”

“To that cause -- I pledge my total dedication; in that cause, I ask my fellow Americans for their hearts, their hands, and their help”.

[KQQL]

No dude, they post polls as they get them..

[AmishDude]

I've never trusted Q-piac. Ever. They have traditionally been 3%+ to the left and their non-candidate (i.e., cultural) polls have left-skewing questions. I kidded your for being a pessimist, but I've said that PA pubbies will get cold feet on Tuesday.

Even if Toomey wins, I don't see Hoeffel being the beneficiary. The worst outcome is that it makes Bush look weak. It'll be hard to spin a win for a conservative Republican over a liberal one as a big loss for Bush, even if he appeared with Specter.

[ConservativeMan55]

Go Pat Go!

[Fresh Wind]

I'd guess Ira Einhorn is supporting Spectre. I'm not.

[Brandon]

It would be quite unusual for an incumbent to pick up all of the undecideds, plus one percent of his opponent's strength, in the final 24 hours. Undecideds generally break for the challenger, and in this case Toomey only needs 50% of the undecideds (plus one) to win. I'd say that if this poll is accurate, Spector is going to lose.

[KQQL]

Bush loses so does Rick.S if spector loses.

[counterpunch]

Interesting though, isn't it, that realclearpolitics.com chose to post as their most recent approval numbers for President Bush citing 50.6% approval, when most every other poll puts him at 53% or 54%?

[KQQL]

you don't get it...that's an average of 5 polls..