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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, April 19, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 04/19/2004 4:22:07 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
97.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
75.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
12.0 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
82.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
12.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
22.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
1.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
63.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
92.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
8.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
16.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
88.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
40.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
93.0 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
83.5 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
17.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
15.0 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
38.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
36.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
97.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
63.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
92.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
70.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
65.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
21.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
57.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
12.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
81.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
56.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
95.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
40.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
56.0 |
21 |
0 |
Rhode Island |
4.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
83.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
97.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
96.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
8.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
88.5 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
27.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
53.0 |
5 |
0 |
Wisconsin |
50.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
96.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
304 |
234 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 288.08 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
04/19/2004 4:22:32 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.
The bid price is 48.0 and the ask price is 52.0. These average to 50.0.
The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud.
3
posted on
04/19/2004 4:23:03 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
4
posted on
04/19/2004 4:23:47 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Notice how few of the states are anywhere close to 50/50.
To: Momaw Nadon
Candidly, I think needs to be an Electoral College Commission to investigate this...ummm, the Chair might oughta be a non-politician such as James Carville, co-chair, Al Franken and one independent politician such as Jim Jeffords...I trust they will be able to attract good and objective people to look into the matter.
6
posted on
04/19/2004 4:40:42 PM PDT
by
MarkT
To: Momaw Nadon
I can't believe that Kerry gets 90% of the Electoral votes that Al Gore received in 2000. But then again, I live in California, and I fully expect Kerry to win the state in a landslide. Sigh. :(
7
posted on
04/19/2004 4:43:06 PM PDT
by
CatOwner
To: CatOwner
Fellow 'Fornians.....DO NOT THINK THAT! Arnold has yet to do his magic!
To: Momaw Nadon
A recent poll in Arkansas shows the candidates almost even. Has the market not heard about yet?
To: Dales
I am going to guess that you have seen this......the free market at work and a competitor's product vis a vis yours...........
To: Momaw Nadon
Very informative post, and links....many thanks...may I suggest that you ping this thread to Dales..he does the weekly surveryof poling data, and while technically NOT a poll, the futures markets have proved to me more accurate than many polls. He might deside to see how his data, and his projections, coorelates with the futures
11
posted on
04/19/2004 4:58:07 PM PDT
by
ken5050
(Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to propagate her genes.....any volunteers?)
To: Clintonfatigued
A recent poll in Arkansas shows the candidates almost even. Has the market not heard about yet? Information in the public domain is inherently available to the futures market investors.
At this time, they believe that President Bush has a 70% chance of winning the Electoral Votes of Arkansas.
12
posted on
04/19/2004 4:59:10 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: CatOwner
Its an uphill battle here for sure. But thats what was said about the recall :) Remember those ridiculous LA times polls? We'll have to see if Bush will come out here often enough and give it a shot. I think if he spends time here with Arnold, he has a chance of pulling it off.
Lets get rid of Boxer while were at it too!
To: Momaw Nadon
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes. Let's hope they are. If President Bush can win in a landslide like this hopefully the RATS will give up and not start a lot of "vote contesting" trouble. If they do, what with electronic voting machines, et al, the mess may spill over into January.
14
posted on
04/19/2004 5:37:15 PM PDT
by
upchuck
(Message to Senator John F'ing sKerry: Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity.)
To: Momaw Nadon
What, if anything, do the futures traders have to say about a contest between President Bush and The All Seeing, All Mighty, All Lardass HILDABEASTE?
15
posted on
04/19/2004 5:40:07 PM PDT
by
upchuck
(Message to Senator John F'ing sKerry: Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity.)
To: Republic Rocker
Fellow 'Fornians.....DO NOT THINK THAT! Arnold has yet to do his magic! Are you kiddin? It ain't gonna take a magician, it'll take GOD himself to change this place!
16
posted on
04/19/2004 5:47:52 PM PDT
by
navyblue
To: Momaw Nadon; Dales
I think a better measure of the current stance of the race is to take the number of electoral votes in each state and then multiply that by the probability of winning for each candidate when it is >50%, except Wisconsin for Kerry as you noted.
Summing the totals yields the following:
Bush
242.71
Kerry
188.63
Obviously, this does not yield 538 electoral votes, but it is an indication that W is a LOT closer to sealing the deal than J F'in K.
17
posted on
04/19/2004 5:48:45 PM PDT
by
GEC
To: Momaw Nadon
Here are the weekly change of the chance of a Bush win:
State Change
AL 3
AK 0
AZ 0
AR 3
CA -3
CO 1
CT -2
DE 0
DC 0
FL 2
GA 1
HI 0
ID 0
IL -1
IN 0
IA -2
KS 0
KY 1
LA 0
ME -2
MD -3
MA 0
MI -5
MN -5
MS 4
MO -2
MT 0
NE 0
NV 0
NH 0
NJ 3
NM 0
NY 0
NC -3
ND 0
OH -4
OK 0
OR 0
PA -1
RI 0
SC 0
SD 0
TN 2
TX 3
UT 0
VT 0
VA 0
WA -2
WV 0
WI 0
WY 0
18
posted on
04/19/2004 8:08:14 PM PDT
by
JLS
To: CatOwner
But then again, I live in California, and I fully expect Kerry to win the state in a landslide. Sigh. :(Give the cat away & get a dog. Dubya's taking your 55 Electoral votes. :^)
19
posted on
04/19/2004 9:51:41 PM PDT
by
jla
To: Momaw Nadon
This is incorrect.
Dubya will take no less than 400 Electoral votes.
20
posted on
04/19/2004 9:52:36 PM PDT
by
jla
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