SURVEYUSA Arkansas POll. W 47% Kerry 45%

surveyusa.com ^ | 04/16/04 | surveyusa

[KQQL]

Bush (R) 47%

Kerry (D) 45%

Other/Undecided 8%

Data Collected 4/14/04 - 4/15/04

Geography State of Arkansas

Sample Population 565 Likely Voters

Margin of Error 4.2%

[KQQL]

POLL DETAILS @

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

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Rank	Location	Receipts	Donors/Avg		Freepers/Avg		Monthlies
10	New Jersey	993.50	24	41.40	368	2.70	150.00	8

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[KQQL]

AR still a Bubba counrtry?

[KQQL]

@

[graf008]

Bush won it in 2000.

[KillBill]

With this and other results (New Jersey, etc.) it looks like there will be more "battleground" states this year, making a landslide much more likely for either side than 2000 redux.

[kcvl]

Bush has been running ads here for weeks. I can't believe these people would actually vote for John Kerry. Kerry hasn't run ONE ad. The media has done it for him.

[Torie]

There have just been to0 many generations of folks marrying their sister down there.

[Dales]

There is another poll out that has different results.

Here is my take on it.

What a different picture the Arkansas State and Survey USA polls paint, isn't it? One makes it seem that Bush has the state in command, while the other makes it look that it is a nail biter. This is exactly how people often read entirely too much into polls. The simple fact is that these two polls could very easily be saying the same thing. It is also possible that they are contradicting each other. There is simply no way to tell. In one, Bush gets 51%; in the other, he gets 49%. With MoE's of 4.2% and 5%, it is clear that there is overlap. The best one can say is 'it is probably somewhere around there'. There is less agreement on Kerry, but still well within the MoE. One has him at 43%, one has him at 47%. Which is it? Again, the numbers are within the MoE. Could be either. One could be even more wrong, and his support could be higher or lower than either edge-- but that is unlikely. The most likely result is that his support number is right in betwee, sitting around 45%. But we just do not know, not from this small number of results.

So which do we go with? The 8 point Bush lead? The 2 point Bush lead? Or do we split the difference and call it a 5-6 point Bush lead? Or do we say SurveyUSA's is more recent, so we go with it?

[Poohbah]

Polled during the week, when Republicans are at work...

[My2Cents]

I keep hearing how we should take all of these polls with a grain of salt, given how far out we still are from the election, but I wonder if they are showing something significant -- that despite the concerted effort of the news media working in concert with the Democrats, Kerry hasn't been able to break a red state away from Bush, and Bush looks to be leading in some key blue states (the most recent poll in NJ shows Bush with a 4-point lead in a three-way race)?

[faithincowboys]

This sucks-- we need Arkansas. what in the Hell is wrong with Arkansas?? You'd think they would want tp make amends for the Clintons. What in the Hell?

[My2Cents]

Well, that's the scary part. Here's a state where John Kerry has nothing in common with its citizens, he hasn't run one darned ad there, the media has been his surrogate, and yet he's behind by only 2%.

[KQQL]

One has him at 43%, one has him at 47%. Which is it?
-------
P.S Dales one is 43% and other is 45%

When it comes to state polls, I always go with Mason Dixon polls first, 2nd with surveyusa polls, followed by Research 2000.
If the above 3 pollsters are not Available for a state then I go with local state polls, ARG , un sauced Zog polls and then by Rasmussen poll

[KQQL]

AR is still a RAT STATE and will be very competetive.

States which Bush won in 2000 and could go either way in 04 are: OH, WV, NH and AR

[KQQL]

AR is still a RAT STATE and will be very competetive.

States which Bush won in 2000 and could go either way in 04 are: OH, WV, NH and AR

[Dales]

I can't argue with your pecking order for methodology. Mine wouldn't be much different.

But no matter how good a company is, the fact is that polls are not precise to the number. The MoE means something, and even for the best pollster, with a 4 MoE that means that regularly results will come out off (in the gap between the candidates) by 4 points, 6 points, even 8 points-- and it still be within the MoE of the poll. Such is the nature of the best. They are very, very fuzzy numbers.

ps- you are right, I transcribed the numbers wrong.

[Krodg]

Bush (R) 47%

Kerry (D) 45%

AR still a Bubba counrtry?

Bubba country???