An Open letter to President Bush (End run vs. Outsourcing)

Me | Me

[XBob]

290 - "But apparently, I have read Marx, and you have not."

Read a lot of marx do you?

[Tennessean4Bush]

I've already been beaten into reconsidering my registration by some of you. I ain't a democrat, never have been and never will be; but, I'm wondering now why I'm republican, cause some of you make me ashamed of the word.

Know that we do really have a big tent in the GOP, and more than a few common values. I truly am sorry about your job, and wish you all the good fortune in the world. Keep your chin up and a positive outlook, and I wager that you will find an even better situation real soon.

Free trade is good economics and good for the economy as a whole, I believe. The US in a net beneficiary in outsourcing, believe it or not. However, I know that is cold comfort to one who has recently had a job outsourced to another country.

Good luck and keep the faith!

[XBob]

290 - "But apparently, I have read Marx, and you have not."

Read a lot of marx do you?

Isn't it in his name that Stalin killed off those millions of Kulaks by starving them out?

Let them eat cake ?

[XBob]

293 - "Good grief. What about gas prices?"

See, you policies are working already. All those blankety blank free trers making all that extra money. Aint it lovely?

[ARCADIA]

If the U.S. issues a bond, and subsequently devalues its currency, then it will cost less for the U.S. to pay it off. I cannot make it any more simple than that.

I think I know where you are coming from. In the past we have managed to inflate our way out of national and personal debt, and that inflation did have a corresponding dollar depreciation. The difference is that we no longer have a strong manufacturing base, nor a solid technological advantage. The days when we had standby capacity and could add a shift or two to buy market share based on currency advantage are largely gone.

Our economy is no longer strong enough to benefit from the depreciating currency. Our currency has already devalued by 20-30% against the EURO and other leading currencies, but we have not seen any job growth, nor certainly much wage inflation. The only inflation that the system has generated is the cost push inflation that is directly driven by the weakening dollar.

There are no US based TV or stereo manufacturers; few consumer product makers, our garment industries are in taters, and even our heavy industries are largely dependent on imported components. Ford can only produce as many Explorers as they can get engines for from Japan and transmissions for from Germany; And, no one is going to re-engineer the car, or build an entire engine plant, until they have a reasonable expectation that the currency valuation has stabilized.

This is no longer a robust economy. Currency devaluation without other intervention to ensure that we have a broader manufacturing base, is just a recipe for disaster.

[ARCADIA]

Not if you are paid in Euro's

True. Unfortunately, most of the slobs that we are worried about are paid in dollars.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Likely a lot of these FReepers are small, self-employed businessfolk who are making a killing off selling us this cheap Chinese junk for American made prices and they can't stand the thought of anyone being pro-America enough to question their un-American business practices...

straw man
n. [2] An argument or opponent set up so as to be easily refuted or defeated.

[Tennessean4Bush]

...until they have a reasonable expectation that the currency valuation has stabilized.

Stabilized? Define stabilized. I have never seen it stabilized. It always fluctuates. It bubbles up, it bubbles down. Do you mean in a certain range and within specific tolerances? If so, what exactly are the tolerances you think are necessary for industry or foreign capital projects to locate in the US? I am eager to read your pronouncement.

[XBob]

should have stuck with those jobs, but they dried up, when we got to the moon (I am from Cape Canaveral), and there were no jobs to be had of any kind, went back to school and got 'retrained' and 'upgraded' my skills to military, and when the Vietnam war jobs dried up, I went into oil, and when that dried up (in the oil crash of the 80's), I went into working on the shuttle to recover from the Challenger fiasco.

So - I've been through it, training, and training, and retraining and retraining.

[Havoc]

Wait till they outsource you. Mine happened not because my company got a bright idea; but, because of competition. The client we support is dragging my desk to Mexico and pushing it's US suppliers into having to outsource or lose their contracts.. It's one of the big 3.

I've talked to people at this point who were making 80-100k a year as engineers who are working now in Kmart, Target, and McDonalds cause they can't get anything else. That is money that isn't in this economy anymore. If it isn't here - it ain't here for you anymore than it is for me and primarily for them.

You've got people retraining who now find their degrees are no good. There is a person on this thread who has multiple degrees from multiple retraining efforts and his degrees are no good to him. What we're essentially being told by practical experience is all our money should be spent on our job in order to keep our job; but, it isn't our job, so don't expect to keep it. I spent 10 years in sales and I couldn't sell that on my best day. People aren't going to stand for being told they have to be professional students and be displaced everytime they sneeze because their employers can't be trusted, are unreliable and basically liars. And it doesn't seem to occur to any of you how subversive that is. As I've noted many times, ya'll are brewin the ingredients for a war.

[Havoc]

Wait till they outsource you. Mine happened not because my company got a bright idea; but, because of competition. The client we support is dragging my desk to Mexico and pushing it's US suppliers into having to outsource or lose their contracts.. It's one of the big 3.

I've talked to people at this point who were making 80-100k a year as engineers who are working now in Kmart, Target, and McDonalds cause they can't get anything else. That is money that isn't in this economy anymore. If it isn't here - it ain't here for you anymore than it is for me and primarily for them.

You've got people retraining who now find their degrees are no good. There is a person on this thread who has multiple degrees from multiple retraining efforts and his degrees are no good to him. What we're essentially being told by practical experience is all our money should be spent on our job in order to keep our job; but, it isn't our job, so don't expect to keep it. I spent 10 years in sales and I couldn't sell that on my best day. People aren't going to stand for being told they have to be professional students and be displaced everytime they sneeze because their employers can't be trusted, are unreliable and basically liars. And it doesn't seem to occur to any of you how subversive that is. As I've noted many times, ya'll are brewin the ingredients for a war.

[XBob]

excellent summary.

It seems as if neither Bush 2, nor wild child can figure this out.

[XBob]

306 - "Not if you are paid in Euro's
True. Unfortunately, most of the slobs that we are worried about are paid in dollars."

But the stuff we are buying, importing, which we are paying for in dollars, and being paid with in dollars, that stuff needs to be paid for in Euro's, or in devalued dollars. Since last summer, prices for metals and other commodities procured overseas have increased by 40%, so our imports, which are becoming the majority of our purchases, are going up markedly, while our pay is not.

[ARCADIA]

Define stabilized.

You need to have a currency that will hold within a given range. If the dollar is likely to hold at year 2000 less 10-20% over the next couple of years then you can begin to build a business case based on that assumption. If it simply goes into free fall you are in trouble. Each percentage of drop means that your US domestic demand can be significantly impacted, that banks and other creditors may become insolvent, that the political balance may shift against you, that other countries may further insulate themselves from US exports, and so on....

In some parts of Latin America it is not unusual to see wages, rents and pricing negotiated on a weekly/daily basis. That is not the kind of environment that would attract alot of investment. The usual result is capital flight to safer currencies.

[XBob]

308 - "Stabilized? Define stabilized. I have never seen it stabilized. It always fluctuates."

You are too young. It was quite stable in the 50's, 60's, and early 70's, until Nixon took us off the gold standard and let everything 'float'. We had a great economy and great low interest rates and stable prices, and low taxes, and a man with one job could support a wife and family.

Getting off the gold standard has blown stability out of the water.

[Havoc]

The usual result is capital flight to safer currencies.

And that happens immediately. The market is watched and played in realtime - investors don't wait 2 years to make a decision about whether something is really going south or not, they sell at the first sign and stay away till there is reason to believe it a wise move to reinvest if that point comes at all. It doesn't seem to matter what minute detail of this get's looked at under the microscope, it is all bad.

[ARCADIA]

so our imports, which are becoming the majority of our purchases, are going up markedly, while our pay is not.

That was the concern I was trying to express in post #276.

[Tennessean4Bush]

I spent 10 years in sales...

If you are looking for a relatively outsource-proof occupation with unlimited opportunity, sales is it. A good salesperson is extremely hard to find and to keep. While we may disagree on many things, we both would agree the US is far-and-away the world's largest consumer of goods. A veritable playground for salespeople.

Look, I don't want to argue with you. Obviously you are hurt by your circumstance (who wouldn't be if they lose a job?). I hope you will be able at some point to see the path to a better situation for yourself. I truly wish you all the luck and good fortune in the world in your endeavors.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Getting off the gold standard has blown stability out of the water.

Aha! That explains it. You are a gold standard guy. What was it, $35/ounce before we went off the gold standard? Yes, you are right, I was about 9 years old when US left the gold standard.

[ARCADIA]

It doesn't seem to matter what minute detail of this get's looked at under the microscope, it is all bad.

That, ironically enough, may be our only saving grace. All the players are aware of the risks, and reasonable people do not want to collapse the system and risk a major global war. We can only pray that reasonable people prevail.