Toomey Within 6 Of Specter In New Poll

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/6/04

[Dales]

U.S. Senate, PA GOP Primary

4/6/2004
Specter- 46%
Toomey- 40%
Other/Undecided- 14%
Data Collected 4/3/04 - 4/5/04
Geography- State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population- 490 Certain Voters
Margin of Error- 4.5%
Client- KDKA-TV Pittsburgh WCAU-TV Philadelphia WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[WOSG]

"If Toomey wins, he will have a huge headstart against Hoeffel."

Correct.

See post 40. Toomey is the more electable candidate.

A Specter win is setting us up for an upset by Hoeffel. He is weaker than he was in 1992 and he has now 'dissed' conservatives. Voting Specter? dont do it. Vote Toomey and tell everyone you know likewise if you are a conservative. Voting Specter will give us Republican and conservative defeat.

[WOSG]

See post 40. Toomey is more electable.

[Torie]

I suspect the incumbent is on the ropes, unless he fashions a new strategy. An incumbent leading this narrowly, with the trend deteriorating, and poor performances in debates, suggests the curtain is coming down. Specter's best bet is some late polls, suggesting Toomey can't win a general election, while Specter can.

[WOSG]

"If Specter wins, he will have to get down every day and thank President Bush. Don't bet the farm on that logic. Specter is an ingrate."

We know Specter will disappoint. Specter is as predictable as Canadian geese in his ideological migration behavior - conservative 1 year before the election, then liberal for 5 years after it.

Specter got some conservative help in 1992 to squeak by a candidate. After 1992 he turned to bite the hand that fed him. Ask Weyrich ...

" The Republican senator from Pennsylvania wasn't going to get it merely by breaking bread. Says Weyrich: "I told him I was disgusted with how he comes around just before his elections and asks for conservative endorsements, when we all know he won't give us the time of day later on." In years past, Weyrich has traveled to Specter's home turf and urged conservatives to stick with one of the GOP's most liberal members. "I'm not sure what I'm going to do this time.""

[WOSG]

I now believe that it's possible for Specter to be defeated. Yes, if not now, then in november. Better we replace him now so we dont lose the seat,

He frankly looked horrible in the small portion of the debate that I saw. Died hair and rouge do not become the man, and trying to get through his notes looked pathetic. There is the age factor. He is past retirement age, even for a senator.

[WOSG]

Joanie, keep up the good work. I have sent $200 for Toomey, it's a fight worth fighting for. I encourage everyone who reads this to send money to Toomey. Specter will outspend him massively.


"I used to foolishly think that our focus needed to be in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas, because that is where the election will be won or lost. But I am beginning to realize that that is not the case. Outside of those two areas, Pennsylvania is an overwhelmingly conservative state. Here in Lancaster County, which is overwhelmingly Republican, it will not necessarily be a matter of changing minds, but rather a matter of getting out the vote in the normally low-voter-turnout primary."

Absolutely right! The Abe Lincoln formula: Find out who is on your side. Identify them. Get them to the polls.

Joanie, the most powerful thing you can do is simply get the list of republican voters and call them or go door-to-door and give them literature and MAKE SURE THEY VOTE TOOMEY. This is how elections are one. All politics is local, even personal.

If you simply identify all the voters who say "I will vote for Toomey" and call and bug them "are you voting?" "have you voted?" etc on election day, you've got it made.

It should not be a hard sell to conservative pro-life Republicans that prolife Toomey beats pro-abortion Specter, who dissed the pro-life wing of the party in his own aborted prez campaign in 1996 and who oppose Robert Bork. It should not be a hard sell that a liberal like specter who like liberal judicial activists cannot be trusted to "help" get Bush nominees into the courts. The liberal activists in the courts is a huge problem! And specter is like a fox guarding the henhouse.

The big shocker in the poll was that Specter still lead amoung conservatives (very narrowly). Toomey should be winning almost all the conservative votes!

http://www.nationalreview.com/flashback/miller200403260926.asp

http://www.pattoomey.org/news_item.asp?pid=155

http://www.pattoomey.org/news_item.asp?pid=77

[republicanwizard]

Specter would crush Hoeffel. The whole reason is because of the value of having a five-term Senator.

I'm going to be upset if we lose our last chance to chair the Appropriations Committee. It was my hope that Specter would chair Appropriations and Santorum become the Majority Leader, but the dream is vanishing now.

[WOSG]

General elections polls are not relevent right now, since Toomey doesnt have the name ID he will have after he defeats Specter.

See post 40 for a brilliant analysis of the PA race, for why Toomey is more electable against Hoeffel. Specter has the wrong profile to go up against Hoeffel and could be upset. Toomey, like Santorum, can win blue-collar social conservative votes that Specter doesnt win. Toomey has the edge in November.

[republicanwizard]

Well, the same could be said about Ted Stevens, Pete Domenici, and several other Republican Senators. That Specter is getting old should have nothing to do with how you vote.

[republicanwizard]

Specter won those votes in 1998. Please be accurate with the facts.

[republicanwizard]

What do you know about Pennsylvania? Would you like it if I told you whom to vote for in Texas primaries?

[Clintonfatigued]

I've wondered that, myself. Pat Toomey's social conservativism (pro-life, pro-gun) is an asset in Pennsylvania. But he's also a free-trader who supported Permanent Most Favored Trade Status for China and fast-track authority in trade agreements. These could turn out to be serious liabilities. Free trade has never been popular in Pennsylvania. I'm no Specter fan, but a Senator Hoeffel would be far, far worse.

[WOSG]

What is this "our" business? Are you a special interest looking for a handout that has Specter in your pocket?

"WE" conservative Republicans will NOT be chairing appropriations or any other committee that the liberal RINO Specter heads up. "WE" will have no representation from a man who is against our positions and policies. Like that overtime issue that Specter was the main stumbling block on ... Specter was not doing MY bidding, he was doing the bidding of the Liberal trade unions. Like when he opposed the school vouchers for DC, again, carrying water for the AFT and NEA teachers unions ... Is that representing you? Are you a liberal special interest?

As for "Specter crush" ??? hmmm, he is under 50% IN HIS OWN PRIMARY. He *barely* beat a weak candidate in 1992. He has since aged and added a lot of baggage. If patronage was all there was to politics, we'd still have Sen Alfonse DAmato. As I said, Toomey is more electable.

[Torie]

What I meant to say, is that general election polls might be relevant to the primary result, not that they are relevant to the odds some Pubbie wins in November. I agree with you Toomey would be and is a very attractive candidate. And I am a moderate RINO type. But I call them as I see them. And this RINO would vote against Specter, which might suggest why Specter might be on the ropes, if I am remotely representative of the RINO element. I might add that curiously, the split between Toomey and Specter is not currently ideological at all. It is more regional, with Specter running well against Toomey in the most conservative part of the state, ie, the "T."

[WOSG]

"What do you know about Pennsylvania?"

Quite a bit. Lots of connections there, friends, family etc.
And I know who the best candidate is for you to vote for - as long as you are a conservative Republican. (If you are a liberal, let me know and I'll quit bugging you.)
Toomey is a great Senate candidate with a great first name.

"Would you like it if I told you whom to vote for in Texas primaries?"

If you told me to vote for Conservatives over RINO liberals, I wouldnt mind it at all. Information is never a bad thing. Who should I vote in our sherriff runoff? :-)

[WOSG]

"Specter won those votes in 1998. Please be accurate with the facts."

I'm not sure what comments you were responding to, but Specter did not have serious opposition from either party in 1998. His opponents were very underfunded. In 1992, Specter had a very close race where he got *under* 50% of the vote.

[GreatOne]

Oh, no, no, no. I believe that we'll pick up seats in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, and retain most of our other seats, so that this will we can overcome a Specter loss.

But what good is having Specter chairing the Judiciary. He's helping to block our nominees now, he's helping to block the anti-sodomite "marriage" amendment, and, of course, he was a main help in borking Bork and has said he regretted helping Thomas get on the bench.

Quite frankly, with him chairing the Judiciary, we might as well have the DemoRats in control; he's acting like one right now.

[WOSG]

Understood. You may be more moderate than other FReepers, but never a RINO. :-)

As for the polling in the "T", remember that Specter is trying to pull wool over people's eyes, sending out flyers making it seem that toomey is not prolife (oh he favors morning after pill -- and pro-abortion specter does not!?!) I saw stunts like this in our own GOP primary in Texas (Green v Smith, Green ads were 'against judicial activism' where Smith was an independent very *conservative* judicial restraint judge; it stunk to high heaven). It led to voters putting in a liberal Democrat over a conservative Republican in the primary (Green v Garcia), due to stupid name confusion and a very misleading Perry-supported candidacy. grrr. I digress.

bottom line is that Specter can only win by misinforming some conservative voters about himself and Toomey. If Republican primary voters voted their ideology, Toomey would win 60% to 40%. Interesting that Toomey beats Specter in young age groups but not over 65.

[sultan88]

Thanks for the ping. (I almost attended Bucknell!)