2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 5, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	93.0	3	0
Arizona	74.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.5	6	0
California	17.5	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	14.0	0	7
Delaware	29.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	12.5	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	87.5	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	92.5	6	0
Kentucky	86.5	8	0
Louisiana	83.5	9	0
Maine	22.5	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	47.0	0	17
Minnesota	43.0	0	10
Mississippi	92.5	6	0
Missouri	66.0	11	0
Montana	91.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	68.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.5	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	58.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	55.0	21	0
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	86.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	81.8	11	0
Texas	94.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.5	13	0
Washington	33.0	0	11
West Virginia	53.0	5	0
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		304	234

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 292.25 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

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Rank	Location	Receipts	Donors/Avg		Freepers/Avg		Monthlies
22	Wisconsin	260.00	7	37.14			173.00	11

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[Recovering_Democrat]

Gain of 5 electoral votes for Bush since last week.

[rageaholic]

Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?

[Momaw Nadon]

Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?

I believe TradeSports.com got started in 2002.

[smokinleroy]

Bush won Ohio in '00. Bush lost PA in '00 (mostly because of corrupt voting in Philly) but things have changed in the last few years. Since 2002, the state legislature as well as representation in Congress now have a Republican majority.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I don't think anyone predicted that outcome. ;)

[Recovering_Democrat]

WEST VIRGINIA
moves into Bush territory: 49.0% last week, 53.0% this week...5 electoral points for Bush moves him from 299 to 304.

[EllaMinnow]

Thanks for posting these every week, Momaw - I like them!

[hobblemaster]

What about the House and/or the Senate?

[JohnnyZ]

I don't see how President Bush can get both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

And your reasoning would be . . . ?

That it's difficult to win two states that are tossups? That it's difficult to win two states that are adjacent geographically? That it's difficult to win two states that begin with sequential letters?

[Mr. K]

when Bush wins California with Arnolds help liberals are going to spasm

[xzins]

A verification of these numbers would be in tracking the states that Kerry chooses to visit in the next few weeks.

[Momaw Nadon]

What about the House and/or the Senate?

Republicans maintain control of the House in 2004 Election: 92.0%

Republicans maintain control of the US Senate in 2004 Election: 81.0%

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks.

I like your tagline very much redlipstick! :^)

[TomEwall]

After catching Penn and WV, Wisconsin and Michigan are now the closest at 47. Wisconsin got to as close as 49 :) but then backed off to 47 :(.

[edwin hubble]

"Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?"

I recall that there was a legitimate futures market for the 2000 election. But I don't remember the name, or the status as of the eve of the election.

[festus]

I've been watching news for years. Since when did accuracy become important ;-)

I mean you don't need to be accurate at all to do :

1. Sports
2. Weather
3. Financial Analysis
4. Political Pundit
5. Anchor

So lets not go holding Freepers to a higher standard ;-) ;-) ;-)