[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 292.25 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

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Rank	Location	Receipts	Donors/Avg		Freepers/Avg		Monthlies
22	Wisconsin	260.00	7	37.14			173.00	11

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[Recovering_Democrat]

Gain of 5 electoral votes for Bush since last week.

[rageaholic]

Did this source accurately predict the last election outcome?

[Recovering_Democrat]

WEST VIRGINIA
moves into Bush territory: 49.0% last week, 53.0% this week...5 electoral points for Bush moves him from 299 to 304.

[EllaMinnow]

Thanks for posting these every week, Momaw - I like them!

[hobblemaster]

What about the House and/or the Senate?

[xzins]

A verification of these numbers would be in tracking the states that Kerry chooses to visit in the next few weeks.