Donate Here By Secure Server
Posted on 04/03/2004 11:35:42 AM PST by MegaSilver
Seven months before the November election, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle continues to hold a slight lead over Republican challenger John Thune, according to results of a new statewide poll.
Of the 501 likely voters polled, 48 percent said they supported Daschle, while 43 percent favored Thune. Nearly 8 percent were undecided and 1 percent said they did not support either candidate.
The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Daschle, a three-term incumbent, and Thune, a former three-term member of the U.S. House, will face each other in the general election on Nov. 2. Thune lost to Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson in 2002 by 524 votes.
The poll was conducted March 27-28 by Zogby International of Utica, N.Y. It was commissioned by several South Dakota media outlets, including the Rapid City Journal, the Watertown Public Opinion, the Mitchell Daily Republic, KOTA-TV of Rapid City and KSFY-TV of Sioux Falls.
The results were similar to two other independent polls conducted in recent months. Daschle led Thune by 50 percent to 44 percent in November and by 50 percent to 43 percent in February, according to polls done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C.
Dick Wadhams, Thune's campaign manager, said he was ''ecstatic'' with the latest poll numbers, mostly because Daschle polled below 50 percent. Daschle's deputy campaign manager, Dan Pfeiffer, described the numbers as ''a very good place for Senator Daschle to start this campaign.''
In the poll, Daschle was backed by 83 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independents. The Senate minority leader got support from 22 percent of Republicans.
Thune received support from 71 percent of Republicans, 22 percent of independents and 11 percent of Democrats.
Voters gave the two candidates nearly equal favorable ratings, with Thune at 67 percent and Daschle at 66 percent.
Daschle's 48 percent showing should be a ''troubling development'' for the Democrat's campaign, Thune said.
''For the amount of money they've invested already, to not even get to 50 percent when you are the sitting incumbent and minority leader, that gives us a whole lot of room for optimism,'' Thune said.
For months, Daschle's campaign has run a series of positive television ads that have not boosted his numbers, Thune said, adding he has not launched ads and has no plans to do so in the near future.
''People have accepted as much positive information as they can feed them, and it's still not getting them where they need be. That is very significant,'' Thune said.
Pfeiffer disputes Thune's analysis.
''Anytime a Democrat in South Dakota is leading a popular, well-known Republican by 5 points, that's very good news,'' Pfeiffer said. ''John Thune and his allies spent upwards of $15 million in 2002 selling his image to voters. After $15 million, six years in Congress and five visits from President Bush, you have to wonder what John Thune could possibly do over the next seven months to change the dynamics of this election. There isn't much the voters don't know about him.''
Pfeiffer also noted that 22 percent of the Republicans polled said they support Daschle.
''In every poll I've seen, Senator Daschle has received support from one in five Republicans. The math of it is, essentially, that John Thune cannot win this race as long as Senator Daschle is receiving that level of Republican support,'' Pfeiffer said.
''No electorate has ever known more about the incumbent and the challenger than in this case. People are making more of an educated choice than in other elections.''
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said there's only one way to read the poll: Daschle is leading.
''It's interesting that it's always good news for the candidate who's behind in the polls. Trust me, it's always better to be leading,'' Sabato said.
But Sabato said he expects Thune will narrow the gap by Election Day.
''This will be another election probably decided by 500 votes,'' Sabato said. ''You'd have to be nuts to put a nickel down on this one.''
We need an interstate effort to oust Daschle.
I'll get in touch with my Final Cut Pro nut friend and have him help me with some ads. Republicans in South Dakota need to be aware of what they're supporting.
Could y'all provide some links to articles (on FR or elsewhere) that shed light on aspects of Daschle that the average Republican (or human being) would find appalling?
Here are a few other articles and comments from the past couple of days that maybe of interest....
Poll: Daschle in tough re-election race
Poll(ZOGBY): Daschle getting narrow nod over Thune (48.2% - 42.6%)
Dead, mostly, from what I've heard.
Anyone have links to articles about the "dead Indian" vote fraud by Daschle supporters? Is this a joke, or is there substantial evidence behind it?
I guess it depends on your point of view.Here they're defining 48% vs 41% a "slim lead." But if the poll was 48% sKerry, 41% Bush, the headline would be, "sKerry thrashes Bush in poll," or, "sKerry destroys Bush," etc.
I guess this is a real lift to Tom.
Alas, when will they learn?
Either your with us or your against us!
If T. Daschle loses this election he will become a member of the book of world records by being the politician to fade away in record time.
He needs to go now!
Good question, however a more pertinent question would be do the citizens of "SD" see the "Mr. Rogers" conveyance of T. Daschle?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.