Kennedy Confirms Poll, says numbers favor democrats (LA Senate race)

http://politicsla.com/ ^ | 04/02/04 | politicsla

[KQQL]

Verne Kennedy, a Flordia-based political pollster, has confirmed to PoliticsLa.com that the poll first reported on today on this Web site is accuarate but that the numbers are a little misleading.

--- Kennedy says that in the head-to-head matchups, 17-20 percent of African American respondents indicated that they would vote for Republican Vitter. Kennedy does not expect that to happen. Says Kennedy, "That means that the Democrats easily have a two or three point lead over the Republican." ---

Vitter 38 Kennedy 25 John 19

Vitter V. John 42 42 Vitter V. Kennedy 41 41

[Support Free Republic]

[KQQL]

LA is one southern state which leans rats, unless of course the dem African American -Arthur Morrell makes the runoff.

[goldstategop]

I agree. Bush will win Louisiana but unless his coattails are very strong, a Democrat should pick up John Breaux's seat.

[KQQL]

He forgot to include Arthur Morrell in his poll

[KQQL]

yep..unless vitter wins in NOV, I doubt he wins the senate seat in the run off.


Now if Morrel makes the run off, Vitter will win.

[TheBigB]

Which Dem makes the runoff, IYO?

[lormand]

Always follow this rule when guessing the outcome of a Louisiana race.

If a White RAT runs,
the White RAT wins.

[KQQL]

Morrell move means runoff for Senate


By GERARD SHIELDS
gshields@theadvocate.com
Washington bureau

Democratic State Rep. Arthur Morrell's intent to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Sen. John Breaux, D-La., has convinced Jennifer Duffy of one thing.
"If I wasn't sure there was going to be a runoff," said Duffy, editor of Senate and governor races for The Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C., "I am now."

Morrell, D-New Orleans, 60, becomes the third Democrat to run for the vacancy, joining U.S. Rep. Chris John, D-Crowley and state Treasurer John Kennedy. Being the first African-American candidate in the race, the 21-year state House veteran adds a new dimension to the contest in a state where the electorate is 30 percent black.

---

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/032104/opi_shields001.shtml

[KQQL]

LA

Vitter 38% - Kennedy 25% - John 19% - Morrell ?%
Verne Kennedy Poll
MOE+/-4% 03/15-18/04 (Likely Voters)
Vitter 42% - John 42% 42
Vitter 41% - Kennedy 41%
Vitter ?% - Morrell ?%

Vitter 33% - Kennedy 23% - John 19% - Undecided 25%
Public Opinion Strategies(R)
MOE+/-4.4% 02/05,8-9/04 (Likely Voters)

[KQQL]

Poll: Vitter out front in La. Senate race

---

The Associated Press
4/2/04 4:19 PM


BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) -- Congressman David Vitter leads the field of candidates hoping to replace retiring U.S. Sen. John Breaux, according to an early poll for the race that is seven months away.

Vitter, R-Metairie, the lone Republican in the race, was supported by 38 percent of the respondents in the survey by pollster Verne Kennedy. The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points.

The two Democrats -- state Treasurer John Kennedy, D-Madisonville, and Congressman Chris John, D-Crowley -- were statistically in a dead heat: Kennedy with 25 percent and John with 19 percent.

Verne Kennedy said the numbers were close to what he expected this early in the Senate race.

"John has a disadvantage of lower name recognition. Kennedy has very high appeal to African-American voters because of his name," he said.

While Vitter does not have extremely high name recognition, he is the sole Republican, giving him an advantage, according to Kennedy.

"Voters are not at all solidified on their candidate choice. They're fairly divided between, 'I want a Republican or I want a Democrat,"' he said.

The poll numbers, done for a group of 30 independent businessmen whose names were not released, did not include a fourth announced candidate, Democratic state Rep. Arthur Morrell of New Orleans.

Kennedy's Marketing Research Institute of Pensacola, Fla., surveyed 600 voters over several nights from March 15-18, the first of the pollster's surveys of the Louisiana Senate race for the businessmen. Kennedy said he will do monthly surveys starting in June. The election is Nov. 2.

Alternate scenarios in the poll showed Vitter tied with either Kennedy or John in a runoff, though Kennedy said in both instances a higher number of black voters said they would vote for Vitter than would realistically vote for a Republican.

"The runoff would slightly favor the Democrats," he said.

http://www.nola.com/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf?/newsflash/get_story.ssf?/cgi-free/getstory_ssf.cgi?n3726_BC_LA--SenatePoll&&news&newsflash-louisiana

[JohnnyZ]

If a White RAT runs, the White RAT wins.

It certainly leans that way. It would take a very good campaign to get Vitter that extra bit to push him over the top. Mary Landrieu's two close elections are a good sign for the future -- one of these days we'll bust through, and Vitter could be the one to do it, as he's the strongest candidate we've put forward since .... ? And hopefully the fraud level will be lower than '96.

[No Dems 2004]

Hey guys,

I think the Dems are starting to get overconfident in LA. I really am beginning to think that the GOP will pull it off this time. Two times of 52%-48% victories and the Dems think they own the state.

[KQQL]

LA is the only state in the union, which has NEVER elected a Republican Senator.

[KQQL]

Morrell has to make the Run Off......for Vitter to win.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

True. After Landrieu won in 2002, the Dems were dancing around as if they were on top of the world. Their margins are shrinking, and the bottom will fall out one of these days.

[deport]

LA is going to be a state to watch and most likely get some national attention and cash infusions by both parties this time... With an open Senate seat and three open Congressional seats [Vitter, John, Tauzin] it will make for some interesing campaign tactics I'd guess... Look for the President and maybe the VP to make a swing through the state at some point....

[JohnnyZ]

Morrell has to make the Run Off......for Vitter to win.

So you think Vitter has a 0% chance against either Kennedy or John?

[KQQL]

He has some chance against John, but I doubt any against Kennedy