Posted on 03/30/2004 1:51:02 PM PST by rogueleader
Ribhi Mustafa is a swing voter who has already swung.
Four years ago, he was frustrated with the slow pace of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, and he cast his ballot for George W. Bush.
"I figured it would be good to have some new blood - and it turned out to be worse," said Mustafa, 28, a registered Democrat from Northeast Philadelphia who works in his family's supermarket business. This year, he said, his choice will be Sen. John Kerry (D., Mass.).
Mustafa's personal shift illustrates a problem for President Bush, who in 2000 condemned anti-Arab profiling in a nationally televised debate, and then went on to win a healthy plurality of the Arab American vote in four of the largest battleground states, including Pennsylvania.
A recent poll suggests Arab American voters in these states have soured on the President because of the administration's unwavering support of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the invasion of Iraq, and the government's crackdown on Arab and Muslim immigrants in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks.
Kerry led Bush 54 percent to 30 percent among the estimated 550,000 Arab American voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida, the March 14 Zogby International poll found. Sixty-five percent of respondents said it was time for a new president.
That's a big swing from 2000, when 46 percent of voters of Arab descent in the four states voted for Bush, versus 29 percent for then-Vice President Al Gore and 13 percent for Lebanese American consumer activist Ralph Nader, who was running as a Green Party candidate.
"I don't know what Bush does to win them back," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, which commissioned the poll from the firm run by John Zogby, his brother. "They can't afford to write off any group that has hundreds of thousands of voters in key states."
Arab Americans could be about 2.7 percent of the 19.8 million voters expected to cast ballots in the four battleground states Nov. 2, according to the pollster's projections based on turnout in 2000.
One thing seems sure: It's a far cry from Oct. 11, 2000, when candidate Bush spoke out in a debate with Gore against the use of "secret evidence" in deportation proceedings against Arab immigrants.
"It was electric," James Zogby said, and polls showed Arab American voters breaking toward Bush right after.
Mustafa was among those impressed then, but he said he would not vote to reelect Bush this year. He said civil rights for Arab Muslim immigrants had eroded since the 9/11 attacks; he also dislikes the administration's "total disengagement from the peace process" on the West Bank.
"What really did it for me was when Bush called Sharon a man of peace," said Mustafa, who has family living in a village outside Ramallah, in the West Bank. "I started screaming at the television. His own people call Sharon 'Bulldozer.' "
Sammy Zakaria, a Center City physician of Syrian descent, is a registered Republican who voted for Bush four years ago. "I am an Eagle Scout," he said, attracted to the GOP's traditional message of fiscal conservatism, low taxes, and support for faith-based values.
Now, Zakaria is concerned with the ballooning federal deficit and is angry at the Patriot Act, which greatly expanded the federal government's surveillance powers. Although he calls Islamist terrorists "freaks and thugs" who must be resisted, Zakaria has many innocent friends who have been detained in airports or summoned to federal offices under a since-abandoned policy to register legal immigrants from Muslim countries.
"Actions speak louder than words," said Zakaria, 28. "They treated us like suspects."
An estimated 160,000 Arab Americans live in Pennsylvania, an increase of 25 percent from 1990, according to the Arab American Institute's analysis of census data.
Despite their concerns, Arab American voters have come a long way since 1983, when Philadelphia mayoral candidate W. Wilson Goode Sr. returned $2,725 in checks from a fund-raiser hosted by a community leader. The man was the head of an organization attacked as anti-Israel.
"They were able to do that in '83 because we weren't a force - we weren't organized," said Marwan Kreidie, a Democrat who is president of the Philadelphia Arab-American Corp., an advocacy group. "That kind of thing didn't just happen in Philadelphia; it was everywhere. There's been a dramatic change - we're involved in every race and courted by every party for money and votes."
For instance, seven Democratic presidential contenders visited a conference of Arab American leaders in Michigan last fall. The President sent top aides, and both campaigns plan to target the community.
There are less positive signs, too, including the use of a dark-skinned man - who Democrats contended looked Middle Eastern - in a recent Bush ad attacking Kerry's record on terrorism.
Still, Bush supporters say the President is not writing off Arab Americans, and point to some bright spots in the Zogby poll: Bush still enjoys majority support among Christian Arabs, as well as the Iraqi and Chaldean communities, which are large and influential in Michigan.
Besides, Kerry voted for the Patriot Act and the Iraq war, too, said George R. Salem, a Republican lawyer in Washington who is chairman of the Arab American Institute.
"He is just the anti-Bush at this point," Salem said. "As the campaign progresses, people will be presented with a clear record, and they'll ask themselves whether they want a new player or a second-term president able to address their concerns... . The Arab constituency is not monolithic."
Republicans acknowledge the trend found in the Zogby poll but say it is too soon to count out Bush.
"I would take everything this early with a grain of salt," said Nasser Beydoun, executive director of the Arab American Chamber of Commerce in Dearborn, Mich. "A lot of things can happen... . We'll watch and see what the campaigns and candidates do - and what the rest of the world does. What's going to happen in the Middle East [and] with jobs? There are too many variables."
One such variable is Nader, back and running as an independent. In the Zogby poll, 20 percent of respondents said they would vote for him over Bush or Kerry.
Sally Baraka of Philadelphia voted for Nader in 2000, considering him "refreshing" and his Lebanese heritage a plus. Now she thinks a vote for him would help Bush and is leaning toward Kerry.
More broadly, "I see the goal in this election is not just to bring in a new administration but to establish that we are a political force to be reckoned with," said Baraka, a 27-year-old lawyer who voted for Republican Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election.
That analogy is off becuase 90% of blacks vote democrat. Even if current trends about the Arab vote shifting away from Bush continue, he's still going to get 30 to 40 percent, which is larger than he's going to get from any other ethnic minority group.
But you're right that the bulk of "traditional" Muslims are in the suburbs. And could you please try not to call us moderates. Makes me heave, man.
Conservative? Patriot? Works for me.
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