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The Politics of Armageddon (An asteroid could hit. What does POTUS do? - Why Presidents Gray)
National Review ^ | March 29, 2004 | Dennis E. Powell

Posted on 03/29/2004 6:54:04 AM PST by presidio9

You are the president of the United States, and you receive the phone call.

"Mr. President," the person on the other end says, "there is a one-in-three chance that an asteroid more than 500 feet in diameter will strike somewhere in the northern hemisphere six days from now. We cannot be more precise, though we'll have better information in the next few days."

You are the president of the United States. What do you do?

Your science adviser tells you that if the rock hits the planet there is a better than even chance that it will come down in the ocean, but that this is not good news — it could create waves which might destroy coastal cities. It would, of course, be a hazard to ships at sea at the time. It would be a disaster the likes of which we have never experienced both in terms of property loss and, absent an unprecedented evacuation, loss of life as well. The long-term effects on the climate would not be easy to predict, but they would likely be greater than those from a major volcanic eruption.

"Can anything be done?" you ask.

"Other than evacuating coastal cities, no. We have no means of altering the course of the asteroid. We have no way of knowing where it will it or, at this point, if it will hit. By the time we know the extent of the threat, it will be too late even to conduct an orderly evacuation."

The secretary of Homeland Security and the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency have more bad news: There is no provision, none at all, for such an evacuation, orderly or otherwise. We're talking moving everyone, from both coasts, far inland. This includes the entire state of Florida and the entire northeastern megalopolis, as well as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle. It can be done in six days, if we begin right now.

"Don't forget," someone chimes in, "you might be ordering people to move from their perfectly safe homes into the area where the thing will hit. And it probably won't hit at all."

The implications begin to sink in. No matter what happens, the odds are that your political career has just ended. No matter what you do, you will be second-guessed pretty much forever. Maybe the realization is liberating: whatever decision you make will be easier if it is free from political considerations.

What do you do?

It turns out that something not very much unlike this almost happened two months ago. In January there was evidence that for several hours suggested that the Earth had a frighteningly good chance of being hit by a space rock 100 feet in diameter. (For comparison, the meteor that created Meteor Crater in Arizona was about 150-feet across and hit with a force equivalent to a 20-megaton bomb.) Scientists debated whether or not NASA and the White House should be called. As it turned out, astronomers determined within hours that the asteroid did not pose a threat to Earth. No one had to make hard decisions.

This time. But we did not escape; instead, what scientists agree is inevitable was merely postponed.

I had the opportunity to discuss the threat of an asteroid strike with Edward Teller, the atomic scientist, about 15 years ago. Teller was already championing development of a system to launch thermonuclear devices into space to explode near and change the course of space objects headed for Earth. Contrary to the assumption fostered by decades of science-fiction movies, we do not have silos full of rockets that could be pointed at such an object and lit off, solving the problem after a few minutes of tension. Rockets designed to deliver a warhead to another part of our planet are not capable of taking their bombs beyond Earth's gravity. And their guidance systems are not up to the task, either: Moscow, it was assumed, would sit still. Asteroids don't. They move around.

Teller thought an anti-asteroid defense was "essential; it would be irresponsible in the extreme for us not to act." Technology being invented for the Strategic Defense Initiative, he said, could be adapted. We would need to build the appropriate rockets, decide how they would be deployed, and calculate their effect. It would be neither cheap nor easy, but possible, he said, and more than justified by the threat.

Teller's concerns did receive some publicity. But the New York Times was dismissive, reporting that your likelihood of being killed by an asteroid is greater than your likelihood of your dying in a plane crash. (The statistic, while true, is a little bit misleading. The frequency of asteroid strikes over Earth's history, combined with the devastation that results, leads to the conclusion that an asteroid hitting once every 50,000 years would kill more people than would have died in plane crashes in that 50,000-year period. Yet people die in plane crashes every year, while the same cannot be said of people getting squashed by asteroids.)

We do try to keep track of heavenly bodies that might make hell of Earth. The Minor Planet Center is to asteroids as the National Hurricane Center is to tropical storms: It looks for them but can't do anything about them. The MPC issues regular circulars as well as special ones when events warrant.

All of which is very interesting to you, the president, as you try to figure out what course of action to take. Half of the population of the United States lives along the coasts. An attempt to relocate 140 million people in six days would be chaotic. Phrases like "an abundance of caution" ring hollow — the evacuation itself would have all the important characteristics of a huge disaster. The cost of a false alarm would be enormous.

There is only a one-in-three chance that the asteroid will hit Earth at all. The likelihood that it will hit in a place that would produce immediate destruction in the U.S. is even less — let's say one in five. The choices are a certain disaster if you act, or a 20-percent chance of a far greater loss of life if you don't. In a few hours, news of the asteroid will be all over television; tomorrow it will be leading every newspaper. You will be expected to say something, to do something. No matter what you do or say, you will instantly be criticized for it.

You are the president of the United States. What do you do? And if you are not the president of the United States, what would you want him to do?


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: asteroid; preparedness
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1 posted on 03/29/2004 6:54:09 AM PST by presidio9
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To: presidio9
"You are the president of the United States. What do you do?"

Rent Armegeddon?
2 posted on 03/29/2004 6:57:33 AM PST by Lawdoc (This space for rent.)
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To: presidio9
The answer to all these kinds of questions are: hire Bruce Willis.
3 posted on 03/29/2004 6:58:57 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative (...He had committed no crime against America so I did not bring him here...-- Worst.President.Ever.)
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To: presidio9
You are the president of the United States. What do you do?

TOGA ...... TOGA ...... TOGA ......

So9

4 posted on 03/29/2004 6:59:41 AM PST by Servant of the 9 (Screwing the Inscrutable or is it Scruting the Inscrewable?)
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To: presidio9
And if you are not the president of the United States, what would you want him to do?

Nothing. Almost certainly anything he tried to do would make things worse.

Well, maybe call out the Guard to quell rioting.

5 posted on 03/29/2004 7:00:54 AM PST by prion
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To: presidio9
Duck and Cover?
6 posted on 03/29/2004 7:03:26 AM PST by P.O.E. (Enjoy every sandwich)
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To: presidio9
I see no problem with somehow arranging to have the following happen:

1. VRWC Transmits message to loyal followers to move inland - leaving non-VRWC others on the coasts.
2. Military makes fantastic shot on the asteroid and splits it in halves - each half landing off each US coast.
3. Resulting in huge tidal waves and the destruction of the Left Coast and the Eastern Seaboard.
4. Huge parties held by the VRWC inland, while they plan who will now own the property with no clear owner.

There you go. :D

(I'M DONE BEING SILLY NOW)
7 posted on 03/29/2004 7:05:10 AM PST by NotQuiteCricket (10 kinds of people in the world us and them.)
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To: Servant of the 9
"Condi, the astronomers have confirmed that the asteroid will be impacting somewhere in the continental United States. Get me the senator on the line..."


8 posted on 03/29/2004 7:05:37 AM PST by presidio9 (protectionism is a false god)
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To: presidio9
What do I do? Well if it's heading for the left coast ... heh heh ...
9 posted on 03/29/2004 7:11:58 AM PST by PMCarey
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To: NotQuiteCricket
This is supposed to be secret. Don't tip them off.
10 posted on 03/29/2004 7:12:34 AM PST by sphinx
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To: presidio9
Maxim magazine said an asteroid could likely hit on September 27 this year. The article appeared before the, uh...Paris Hilton spread.
11 posted on 03/29/2004 7:13:54 AM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist (EEE)
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To: Lawdoc
Why evacuate San Francisco?
12 posted on 03/29/2004 7:15:02 AM PST by farmer18th
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To: sphinx
Or maybe I've been influenced by the Apollo 13 movie and the VRWC/Military/Corporate Cabbal could attach guidance rockets, and steer the asteroid to France?

(I'M REALLY DONE BEING SILLY NOW!)

13 posted on 03/29/2004 7:16:40 AM PST by NotQuiteCricket (10 kinds of people in the world us and them.)
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To: presidio9
Beats going to Mars.
14 posted on 03/29/2004 7:18:31 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Environmental deregulation and privatization are critical to national defense.)
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To: presidio9
If the President at the time were Republican, Democrats would blame him for not having anticipated the problem, would hold hearings about why the ball had been dropped on his watch and who was to blame and that not enough will be done to help the poor and disadvantaged evacuate.

If the President were a Democrat, the Democrats would blame failed Republican policies for hindering their efforts to address this problem, seek to involve the UN and the EU in any possible solution and dismiss the use of nuclear weapons as being too dangerous to the ozone layer and instead look to solar sails or other environmentally friendly solutions. Congressional Democrats would immediately seek a new tax on all wealthy Americans and corporations to pay for the rebuilding.

Too close to the truth to be satire.

15 posted on 03/29/2004 7:24:25 AM PST by The Great RJ
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To: presidio9
The Truth is always best. Tell the American people how many days they have. (Failing to do so allows someone else break the news to the world, with very counter-productive results.) The more time they have, the less the congestion on the roads as it gets towards crunch time. Think Spring Break Fridays or traffic getting out of the Indy 500. Every National Guard unit is converted to traffic duty, including road-side assistance.

Tell the American people where it is likely to hit, but that the precise location is as yet unknown (although the accuracy of the prediciton would likely improve by the hour). Tell them it could very well hit whatever location they relocate to, or that it may, more-likely-than-not (66% chance in the scenario), entirely miss the planet. This significantly lessens the number of those travelling inland (me, I'm going to the Rockies).

Tell the American people what they can do to enhance their chances of survival from the effects of a land impact and/or an ocean strike. Supplies like food, water, gas, flashlights, batteries, etc should probably be rationed.

Looting becomes a huge civil issue. Increasing the penalties for looting and decreasing the potential penalties for defending your property would have to be done. They would be unpopular. 1000's dead, and the thing misses the planet... yikes... but, it my opinion, better than allowing looting to run rampant. The rationing becomes a "compelling governmental interest", but only for the duration. Congress can declare that the balance of "lives versus (essential) properties" tips the other way for a few days. This still respects the Constitution's guarantees of the Rights of the individual.

16 posted on 03/29/2004 7:24:40 AM PST by Teacher317
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To: presidio9
We will call Bruce Willis.

Ok - we will call AlBore because he sure has the solution to deal with this after his great invention of the internet.

In reality tho, I bet it is best for all of us to know nothing about it considering there is no possible counteraction to avoid the "hammer of God"..
17 posted on 03/29/2004 7:33:39 AM PST by FRgal4u
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To: presidio9
read later
18 posted on 03/29/2004 7:33:39 AM PST by LiteKeeper
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To: LiteKeeper
RECOGNITION

1. A possibility exists that a large asteroid could strike the Earth.

2. Such an asteroid would kill great numbers of people, and possibly cause critical economic and environmental damage.

3. Therefore, we must not allow such an asteroid to strike the earth.

ORGANIZATION

1. Given sufficient warning, it is possible to deflect an asteroid from a collision course by striking the asteroid with nuclear weapons.

2. Such a deflection mission would be difficult and expensive to accomplish.

3. Therefore, a global warning and defense organization should be established in order to allow the development of asteroid-deflection techniques and to spread the costs among as many nations as possible.

SIMULATION

1. There is no adequate way to simulate asteroid deflection techniques here on Earth.

2. The only way to gain experience in asteroid deflection techniques is to deflect actual asteroids in space.

3. Therefore, the internatonal organization charged with developing these techniques should conduct actual asteroid defection missions in space using non-threatening asteroids for practice.

THREAT REDUCTION

1. Asteroids are too large to be destroyed using practical nuclear weapons.

2. Therefore, asteroids deflected for the sake of practice will still exist, and will need to be directed into orbits that cannot threaten Earth.

3. The planet Venus is lifeless and would make an ideal “dumping ground” target for such “practice” asteroids.

SERENDIPITY

1. Venus has too much atmosphere, not enough water, and too little rotation to be useful for human beings.

2. By crashing large numbers of water-bearing asteroids into Venus, the excess atmosphere could be blasted away while at the same time importing water and imparting rotational energy to the planet, thus beginning the process of reclaiming Venus for human use.

3. Therefore, the international asteroid defense organization should begin by deflecting practice asteroids onto collision courses with Venus, thus removing them as threats to Earth while at he same time making Venus more amenable to life.

***

As for the scenario described in the story: If I were President in such a situation, I'd declare martial law in coastal areas and begin stockpiling of emergency supplies at the edge of each danger zone. (I'd also mobilize the National Guard and begin moving fire equipment, medical supplies, and art treasures out of the area.) Then, I'd announce the danger and let the people of each zone decide for themselves whether to run for it or not.
19 posted on 03/29/2004 9:47:58 AM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: presidio9
What do you do?

Pack up the wife and son, take as much food, water, 12guage ammo, fuel, and 2 ply toilet paper we can carry...We will live like royalty when the rest of you run out of Charmin...muwahahaha

All those who defy my families authority will have to use this:


20 posted on 03/29/2004 11:27:09 AM PST by MD_Willington_1976
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