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 MARCH 27, 2004 Taiwan crisis dashes appeal of democracy in China By LAI HONGYI
THE legitimacy and appeal of Taiwan's democracy have been critically undermined. At the very moment that the Central Election Commission announced that Taiwan's incumbent President Chen Shui-bian had won re-election by a razor-thin margin of 0.22 per cent over Pan-Blue challenger Lien Chan, his trustworthiness and integrity became immediately in doubt at home and abroad.
At home, opposition Pan-Blue supporters question his role in the shooting incident that helped him win tens of thousands of sympathy votes, and they cast doubt on the validity of vote counts. Abroad, leaders of Asia-Pacific countries wonder whether Mr Chen would repeat his risky gambit of pushing for a referendum on Taiwan's independence.
Finally, advocates for democracy ponder the extent of damage Mr Chen's alleged vote frauds and his alleged manufacturing of the shooting incident have inflicted upon democracy's fragile course in Hong Kong, mainland China and the rest of Asia.
After a rally of millions of supporters on March 13, the Pan-Blue camp appeared to lead comfortably over the Pan-Green camp led by Mr Chen, as revealed by various then-undisclosed polls. However, less than 12 hours before the voting, Mr Chen, while campaigning in his home area, was shot in his abdomen by a bullet fired from a hand gun that had allegedly been altered so that it was less lethal. Vice-President Annette Lu suffered a slight knee wound.
Suspiciously, the President did not wear a bullet-proof vest, and did not ride on a bullet-proof vehicle. Instead, the vehicle was allegedly borrowed from a friend. And Mr Chen took 15 minutes to notice his 12cm-long wound.
Surprisingly, the attacker had the courage to fire at least two shots while surrounded by masses of Mr Chen's enthusiastic supporters. Miraculously, the culprit fled unnoticed; security did not immediately pursue him. Mr Chen also sought treatment at a hospital many kilometres away, instead of at a nearby, larger and better equipped hospital sanctioned by the national security apparatus.
A close friend of Mr Chen's ran the smaller hospital. Some circles claimed that before the incident, rumours had circulated that a shooting would happen in order to boost the President's popularity, and that Mr Chen's aides visited the hospital earlier that day to remind staff to be ready for an emergency. Opposition leaders were not allowed to visit him while treatment was being carried out. Nor were journalists allowed to photograph the vehicle.
Doubts were also cast on the slim margin of victory. Exit polls on election day suggested that the Pan-Blue camp would have won by several percentage points. There were blatantly erroneous reports of voting totals, and even a video recording of malpractice at the polling station, including images of an underage girl voting for Mr Chen.
Abroad, few countries are sure that Mr Chen would not repeat his risky moves to promote Taiwan's independence. His track record is far from assuring. In his inauguration speech in 2000, he had pledged not to challenge the status quo. However, during his first term, he first pronounced a view of 'one state on each side' of the Taiwan Strait - a challenge to Beijing's notion of 'one country, two systems'.
Towards the end of his term, Mr Chen pushed through a referendum law and a referendum, prompting Beijing to threaten to resort to force. He stepped back only after heavy pressure from the United States. Although he signalled that he would pursue normal ties with Beijing, a senior Democratic Progressive Party spokesman vowed on March 22 to call for more referendums.
To quell all these doubts, Mr Chen needs to agree to a speedy and fair recount. Supervised by bipartisan and independent representatives, an impartial recount would help to dispel voters' doubts. In addition, there should be an independent investigation of the shooting incident, with international criminal investigation experts being roped in to help.
Refusing a recount and an independent investigation will only deepen the existing doubts about the validity of Mr Chen's victory and his innocence, and will worsen Taiwan's political crisis.
About 65 per cent of the respondents (216,000 votes) in a CNN voluntary poll say the Taiwan election was unfair. Similarly, the majority of vocal mainland Chinese view the election as rigged and Taiwan-style democracy as undesirable for China. Without sincere efforts to dispel doubts, alleged election-rigging will permanently blemish Mr Chen.
Taiwan's democracy, one that American leaders pronounce to be a model for Asia, will degenerate into a lofty hope dashed by rogue politicians. A Taiwan democracy tainted by fraud and hijacked by advocates for independence would only invite Beijing to close the gate towards a general election in Hong Kong as well as the rest of China. Worse, it would dash any remaining appeal of democracy for China's intellectuals and future leaders.
The US can play a special role. Mr Chen and his independence advocates believe that the US will come to their aid if ever their independence drive angered China enough to provoke a war. Washington can signal that its support should not be taken as unconditional, and that the US also has a strong interest in seeing that a new Taiwan leader is committed to maintaining peace. Copyright @ 2004 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved. |