Kerry 47% Bush 44% (Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 3/24/04 | Scott Rasmussen

[NYC Republican]

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry at 47%, President George W. Bush at 44%, and "some other candidate" at 4%. These numbers reflect quite a change in the race after Bush had been leading Kerry for seven straight days. The recent news cycle may be taking a toll on the President's numbers. Only time will tell whether this is a lasting shift or just a temporary aberration.

Ratings for President Bush's handling of the "situation in Iraq" have declined over the past week. Just 43% of Americans give the President good or excellent marks in this area. That's down from 47% a week ago. The President's numbers have also declined in the economic arena.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Rasmussen Reports has taken a look at the comparison between Election 2004 and Election 1896. That long ago election came after the last time Americans had gone three consecutive elections without the President winning the majority of the popular vote. Republicans hope the result will be the same this time around since the GOP went on to control the White House for 28 of the next 36 years.

Some commentators also believe that election inspired the Wizard of Oz. Find out why and then let us know who you would cast in each role for a 2004 version of that classic American tale.

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Many people have asked recently why we do not include Ralph Nader by name in our tracking poll. The short answer is that we do not believe he will be much of a factor in Election 2004. A more detailed explanation can be found in this article.

The most recent Rasmussen Reports state polling shows Kerry leading Bush by 4 points in both Michigan and Ohio while the candidates are essentially tied in Pennsylvania.

In Florida, it's Kerry 48% Bush 45%. Rasmussen Reports will be releasing its first wave of state-by-state polling data over the coming weeks. All results will be posted on our Election 2004 page.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Methodology

[NYC Republican]

Surprising stat... Yesterday, Bush was up by 2. Looks like the media attack dogs are working in Kerry's favor... for now...

[KJacob]

It is rather weird.
I would not be too suprised if they went back and fourth until the conventions. Then I expect Bush to pull away.

[NYC Republican]

Must have been a really good polling day for Kerry, he who sat in on a Senator-murder plot. What a disgrace!

[Ingtar]

The free press for Clarke is starting to show up in their polling.

[omniscient]

I hate this. It's way too close for comfort. What a difference a disgruntled demotee makes.

[NYC Republican]

I hate this. It's way too close for comfort. What a difference a disgruntled demotee makes

In hindsight, President Bush should have cleaned house of all Bubba employees in significant positions... Tenet, Clarke, the whole damn lot.

Maybe this is the Morris effect. As soon as he calls for a Bush landslide, Bush's numbers drop... Morris is the worst prognosticator I've ever seen... It's like that guy in Bronx Tale with all of the bad luck, gets sent to the bathroom cause the boss doesn't want to be affected by his bad luck. That's D. Morris. He's always steps behind the curve, and will no doubt change his prognosis several times before Nov.

[ItsMyVoteDammit]

I wonder if any of this has to do with the falling stock market. Since the market has been down for five days it seems the voters are blaming their losses on the President instead of their own bad decisions.

[dawn53]

IMHO, there's one reason and one reason only this poll has shifted.

Kerry has been off the campaign trail.

Out of sight, the likely voters can't be treated to his daily gaffes, flip flops and monotonous speeches.

Just like you think in-laws aren't so hard to get along with when they're living in another town, you change your mind when they come to visit for a week and your constantly confronted with him.

Since Kerry went on vacation, he's been off the news, so he doesn't seem so bad.

As soon as he gets back in the public eye, I expect the polls to swing back to Bush.

[COURAGE]

Bush was and still is in BIG trouble. Yep, the media come to the DemcoRATS rescue again.

[TJC]

Rasmussen Twist: Kerry Leads Bush by 3, Shift of 6 Points vs. Yesterday
• New Q Poll Has Bush Up 6; New AP-Ipsos Has Bush Up 3
• RCP Average: Bush up 2.2 Overall

www.Realclearpolitics.com

[NYC Republican]

Great points!

[vanmorrison]

I am befuddled by these polls and what they purport to show about the opinions of the American people. How can anyone assert that the Clarke testimony is causing Bush's numbers to fall? It would seem obvious to any thinking person that the gang responsible for any intelligence failure was the gang that was in place for the eight years previous to the 911 attacks and who did nothing, not the gang that took over eight months prior. If this is so, then how does anybody get to a mental place of blaming Bush, and not President Caligula and the Democrats? And the crap about "there's enough blame to go around" doesn't wash. The Democrat party was responsible for the state of military and intelligence affairs; the President is the CinC. Given all this, how could anyone in their right mind conclude that national security could ever be trusted to the very people who made 911 possible? It boggles the mind!

I would like to think that these are push-polls that reflect the influence of the leftist media, therefore they are discredited, without validity, and basically just propaganda. But I have recurring nightmares when I realize that there are so many assholes in this country that it is certainly within the realm of possibility that we could have another President Caligula foisted on us by the Democrats in our midst.

This thing shouldn't even be close.

[NYC Republican]

Thanks for the good news on the Quinnipiac poll... RCP is fantastic!

[Maringa]

Good point. Also look at the increasing gas prices...With the increased gas prices, less summer travel, higher food and goods transportation costs, people trying to buy new cars frustrated because they can only trade in their SUV for pennies on the dollar, etc....Stock Market and gas prices....

[DrDeb]

This 'rating' is not at all surprising -- I predicted it Sunday evening! The currently NEGATIVE news cyle coupled with sharply declining consumer confidence (noted in the same poll) makes this outcome quite predictable!!!

What IS interesting is that Rasmussen's current GWB approval/match-up ratings are almost identical to those identified during the same time period last week -- hmmmmmmmmmm?!

Given the power of the PARTISAN/LEFTIST media to negatively influence 'nonaffiliated' voter opinion, the President's approval/match-up ratings will remain volatile thru this spring and summer. [FYI: National polls are interesting but meaningless -- it's the red state/blue state numbers that matter and so far, the President continues to maintain healthy leads in the mandatory RED states!]

We must remain focused on what we can control -- local grassroots/GOTV efforts! To win this November, we must work harder and smarter than our opposition!

[reformedliberal]

In hindsight, President Bush should have cleaned house of all Bubba employees in significant positions... Tenet, Clarke, the whole damn lot.
____

Had he done so, the administration would have been excoriated for "lack of continuity". As usual, they had to balance real national security issues w/the political reality of Catch-22.

[Dave S]

If you go back a week or so ago and I think a week before that you see similar flips. I think the people that they are finding to take the survey on certain days are more predisposed to Kerry. Either that or we have to move the election to prevent Kerry from having a good Tuesday result.

[HostileTerritory]

Ha! I love your theory.

Back when we had Jane Swift as Acting Governor in my state, her approval numbers would rise from the 20s to the 30s every summer simply because she went home and stayed out of the news.

[Fast Ed97]

IMO the media keeps the numbers close in order to keep interest in the election even some months before the conventions- FNC, Matthews, CNN and the others thrive on election coverage, pollsters and thinktanks analyzing every issue in the news and the election- which is why I am avoiding the news networks and talk radio for a while.

[vanmorrison]

I think I'll take your advice, because it gives me nightmares and ulcers to be continually reminded that this country is populated by so many brain dead Democrats.