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Overall, I think this is probably fairly on target with who's gonna win what, but on the other hand, I think some of the percentages are a bit loopy.

For example: I think Bush has a better shot at carrying Minnisota then it thinks 33% is way too low, and while I certainly don't think he's gonna win California, 17% is a bit low. I'd say he has about a 35-40% chance of winning Cali, especially with 'Govanor Arnold' in the statehouse.

Likewise, I think Lousiana, Ohio, and Florida are a bit too strong in the Bush column. I'd say all of these are like 52% in his favor at most.