2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 22, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	92.0	9	0
Alaska	92.0	3	0
Arizona	72.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	78.0	9	0
Connecticut	13.0	0	7
Delaware	24.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	18.0	0	21
Indiana	86.0	11	0
Iowa	46.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	84.0	9	0
Maine	22.0	0	4
Maryland	18.0	0	10
Massachusetts	5.0	0	12
Michigan	42.0	0	17
Minnesota	33.0	0	10
Mississippi	91.0	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	90.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	67.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	17.0	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	13.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	39.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	49.0	0	21
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	85.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	77.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	49.0	0	5
Wisconsin	47.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		278	260

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 289.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[shield]

bmp

[Your Nightmare]

They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?

[Momaw Nadon]

They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?

Yes, the political futures traders on TradeSports.com think President Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes.

[ScaniaBoy]

Note Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin who are all in the Kerry column with only a few percentage points. If they tip over to W, then Kerry is totally done for.

ScaniaBoy

[DM1]

Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA

[smith288]

Bush has more work to do in Ohio... I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

[smith288]

I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

Done by conservatives...

[dogbyte12]

Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.

[TomEwall]

These look to me to be more accurate guesses than the polls.

The state that to me looks most out of kilter is Minnesota. Minnesota was within 2% last time, but Bush is only given a 33% chance of winning, whereas Wisconsin is and Iowa are almost 50/50. Minnesota seems low.

Idaho seems low too. I don't think Kerry has a 5% chance. Gore lost by 40 points in 2000. That's a lot of ground to make up.

D.C. seems about right.

[DallasJ7]

I agree on Minnesota. Not only did Bush only lose by 2 points last time, but Minnesota is one of the most Republican trending states in the nation. Look what happened there in the '02 midterms. For now, I would put the odds there at near even.

[MattinNJ]

Place your bets ;-)

[TomEwall]

I'm not much of a gambler, but betting that Bush will win Idaho sure seems like a safe bet to me. Of course, betting that Kerry will win D.C. looks pretty safe too. But then, you only win $1 on a $100 bet. But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

[tjwmason]

Poll i read this morning Had Bush ahead of Kerry in PA

That is not necessarily inconsistent with these data. What is being presented here is the probability of Bush or Kerry winning in each state, according to the dealers in this futures market. On the other hand, an opinion poll states the present voting inclination of the public. This implies that the dealers consider that it is likely that between now and election day Bush will lose ground in Pa.; however, it is also worth noting that the probability of Bush winning Pa. is given as 49%, this is as close a margin as possible, i.e., the dealers are probably evenly split on this case, with a tiny majority favouring Kerry in Pa.

[zbigreddogz]

I'd be looking for 4 horsemen in the sky if Bush won DC.

[zbigreddogz]

Overall, I think this is probably fairly on target with who's gonna win what, but on the other hand, I think some of the percentages are a bit loopy.

For example: I think Bush has a better shot at carrying Minnisota then it thinks 33% is way too low, and while I certainly don't think he's gonna win California, 17% is a bit low. I'd say he has about a 35-40% chance of winning Cali, especially with 'Govanor Arnold' in the statehouse.

Likewise, I think Lousiana, Ohio, and Florida are a bit too strong in the Bush column. I'd say all of these are like 52% in his favor at most.

[Owen]

Gamblers are not always right. Money bet is not always "smart money". The betting favorite in a horse race only wins about 33% of the time.

Volunteer to GOTV, in battleground states. Not just where you live. Be willing to drive somewhere adjacent/possible if it is a battleground state to volunteer.

[TomEwall]

Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.

Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp

Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away

To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).

[zbigreddogz]

Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)