[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 289.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Your Nightmare]

They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?

[smith288]

Bush has more work to do in Ohio... I think some independant commercials (ala Moveon) should be utilized in Ohio

[dogbyte12]

Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.

[TomEwall]

These look to me to be more accurate guesses than the polls.

The state that to me looks most out of kilter is Minnesota. Minnesota was within 2% last time, but Bush is only given a 33% chance of winning, whereas Wisconsin is and Iowa are almost 50/50. Minnesota seems low.

Idaho seems low too. I don't think Kerry has a 5% chance. Gore lost by 40 points in 2000. That's a lot of ground to make up.

D.C. seems about right.

[zbigreddogz]

Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

[hresources]

If you look at the States given to Kerry, several of them are close to a 50-50 split. On the other hand, all of the States give to Bush show the probability of him winning those States very high. I can't see Kerry taking any of the States given Bush, but I sure can see Bush taking some of Kerry's.

[The Californian]

bump for further study

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

I would have to agree with the others here,
Pennsylvania (and not just cuz I’m from there) and West Virginia are a statistical “dead heat.”
I think the only reason that they are giving these states to Kerry is to keep betting interest up.

[pctech]

It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????

[Political Junkie Too]

I finally refined my Monte Carlo database and ran 100,000 simulated elections for each of the linked sets of probabilities in this thread. Here are my results:

Calendar_Date Bush_EV Kerry_EV Probability_Of_Winning
21-Jan-04.....341.46326.....196.53674.....96.71%
26-Jan-04.....334.8122.....203.1878.....95.24%
02-Feb-04.....323.47283.....214.52717.....91.76%
09-Feb-04.....307.77926.....230.22074.....82.35%
23-Feb-04.....298.0089.....239.9911.....75.29%
01-Mar-04.....295.95191.....242.04809.....73.47%
08-Mar-04.....289.10218.....248.89782.....67.14%
15-Mar-04.....288.83366.....249.16634.....66.95%
22-Mar-04.....289.48814.....248.51186.....67.65%

-PJ