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Well, this is all for fun and games, but it is interesting to note that people are believing that this is going to be a tight one. The first one in early January had people betting on a devastating Bush blowout, now they think he will have a close win. No time for complacency people. This one is going to be a bruiser.

Bush was projected as a landslide winner when it was thought Dean would win the nomination. When it became clear Kerry would be the nominee, things went back basically to Bush-Gore with a few exceptions, almost all good for Bush.

Better for Bush:
1) There are several states that Bush can go ahead of with very little movement
2) New Mexico is in the Bush camp
3) Pennsylvania 50/50
4) Florida in Bush camp

Worse for Bush:
1) W.V. 50/50
2) MN and OR have moved away

To win the election, Kerry would have to keep all the states Gore won, plus win some state or combination of states to add up to 10 points. This looks like it means he would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp. Bush, to extend his lead to about 100 EV only needs to move 4 states which are at 49, 49, 47 and 46 (PA, WV, WI, and IA).