[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

I would have to agree with the others here,
Pennsylvania (and not just cuz I’m from there) and West Virginia are a statistical “dead heat.”
I think the only reason that they are giving these states to Kerry is to keep betting interest up.

[TomEwall]

Actually Bush could lose 2 of those states and still win. Given the same results as last time, he would win 278-260 (interestingly enough, this agrees with what is shown above, except WV and NM are flip-flopped). NV, NH and WV have 4 or 5 EV's. Losing 2 of them could make it a tie, in which case Bush would most likely win. Plus there's a chance one of the Maine EV's could go to Bush. (Maine is an odd state that doesn't necessarily give all the delegates to one guy).

I agree with you regarding Ohio. Of the 3 states, OH, PA and FL, I think Ohio is the least likely to go to Kerry. It's really hard to see Bush winning the election if he loses Ohio.

A recent poll shows Bush slightly ahead in Michigan. Given that, it's hard to see how he could be behind in Ohio. I think the people betting the money have it right, and Ohio is a likely Bush state at this point.